February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion

[Phil 11753]

The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Salem ended February with a -1.2 monthly departure.

 

The 19 freezes is the most in February at SLE since they also had 19 in February 1964.

2004-05.

[snow_wizard 11695]

The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

 

I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late.  It has happened before.  I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum.  In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5583]

EUG finished Feb almost 4" below average rainfall. But had a -0.5 departure so it was much nicer than January.