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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

 

I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late.  It has happened before.  I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum.  In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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EUG finished Feb almost 4" below average rainfall. But had a -0.5 departure so it was much nicer than January.  :)

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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