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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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yeah I understand...all I mean is I have hope for something to happen. Obviously too early to say what will happen even a week from now.

I agree... its certainly still very possible.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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Looks like the GFS will provide some long range excitement after all... looks very close to arctic by day 12.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some pretty crazy stats from Mt. Baker from the last storm: 

 

Max wind gust: 110 mph

24 hr rain: 7.24"

February snowfall: 294"

 

That 294" was their second snowiest month ever (record was 304" in February 1999).

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Just for fun... the 12Z GFS actually does show a decent snowstorm around the 16th.

 

Don't worry Randy... the reality is just as likely to be opposite of what the GFS shows at day 16.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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we will probably miss some action but I bet it will still be cold when we get back.

Cold snap this January started showing up sometime around Christmas and kept getting delayed and it finally ended up happening. (Obviously didn’t live up to the hype but it still technically happened). There’s still hope if the LR models keep showing what they’re showing it just needs to move up in timing to get excited about.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Probably won’t see more than a rain snow mix in our area if we’re lucky lol. I still have hope that something happens in mid to late February. Nothing on the horizon yet in terms of winter weather but we will see. (Quoted the wrong one oops).

I’m not putting stock in anything....I exhausted that in the last round of cold!

Just enjoying where we’re at currently. Plenty active in every way for this weather watcher  :)

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I’m not putting stock in anything....I exhausted that in the last round of cold!

Just enjoying where we’re at currently. Plenty active in every way for this weather watcher :)

Yeah the cold snap in mid January was kind of a disappointment...but atleast it was not a total dud. We’ve still managed a couple good storms this year and a bit of snow which is better than some years. From Olympia south though it’s been a pretty dreadful winter no fun weather. We haven’t done terrible this year...but this winter is pretty weak compared to last winter.
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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Tim, whether intentional or not your posts act like the GFS has taken away the cold trough for next weekend. It has not. The pattern is just more progressive so by hour 204 which is what you posted, positive heights have built back in. Here is next Saturday. Sill a chilly trough with 1000' snow levels and fairly consistent with previous runs. The timing has moved up a little too.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Unfortunately it looks very unlikely now that I will see accumulating snow this weekend. Though easily cold enough by late tonight, there just does not look to be any moisture here over the weekend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z GFS is actually a very chilly run.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Tim, whether intentional or not your posts act like the GFS has taken away the cold trough for next weekend. It has not. The pattern is just more progressive so by hour 204 which is what you posted, positive heights have built back in. Here is next Saturday. Sill a chilly trough with 1000' snow levels and fairly consistent with previous runs.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

It's been trending warmer. And is now warmer than the ECMWF and EPS by Sunday.

 

Obviously anything even a little below normal is all you are looking for... so both are true I guess. Not a big deal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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All joking aside it appears this could be a long drawn out affair that will get progressively colder with each shortwave that digs down the eastern side of the block.  Some good evidence for this is the fact the EPS PNA forecast has it dropping steadily straight through the next two weeks.  The analogs were quite useful with foretelling how the last event would lay out and the latest CPC analog forecasts have some really good years.  One of great interest is mid to late Feb 1955.  That is a case where it got progressively colder over the span of a few weeks and we had an epic blast at the end.

 

At any rate...we are going to get a decent shot of cold air over the next few days followed by a high likelihood of a period of chilly / dry weather during the 6 to 10 day period.  The next wave after that appears to be much colder.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just for clarification... here is an example of what I am pointing out on the 12Z GFS.

 

This was yesterday's 12Z run for next Sunday:

 

gfs_T850a_us_39.png

 

 

And here is the 12Z run today... its worth mentioning that its trending warmer. Because it actually is trending warmer.

 

gfs_T850a_us_35.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow.  Ensemble mean bottoms out at -9 here in about 10 days. 

 

I think patience is going to be a virtue on this.  Sometimes these drawn out creeper cold periods end up being the best.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It appears Salem fell just short of being as warm as January 2018. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like SEA bottoms out at -8 on the GFS ensemble mean now during week two.  The coldest yet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It appears Salem fell just short of being as warm as January 2018. 

 

I thought for sure this would be the warmest based on what I've been hearing from down there.  It wasn't nearly as bad here, but still warm overall.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Tim, whether intentional or not your posts act like the GFS has taken away the cold trough for next weekend. It has not. The pattern is just more progressive so by hour 204 which is what you posted, positive heights have built back in. Here is next Saturday. Sill a chilly trough with 1000' snow levels and fairly consistent with previous runs. The timing has moved up a little too.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

Looking good on the Hood! ⛷

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Does anyone know what happened to Dewey?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I thought for sure this would be the warmest based on what I've been hearing from down there.  It wasn't nearly as bad here, but still warm overall.

 

Well at SLE it came in as the 5th warmest January on record. EUG and PDX came in at #2. So it was as bad as you have been hearing. SLE just over achieved on a couple of low temps mid-month, that was the only difference. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Tim, whether intentional or not your posts act like the GFS has taken away the cold trough for next weekend. It has not. The pattern is just more progressive so by hour 204 which is what you posted, positive heights have built back in. Here is next Saturday. Sill a chilly trough with 1000' snow levels and fairly consistent with previous runs. The timing has moved up a little too.

 

 

Just to follow up on this for Saturday since that was the focus of your post... look back at the previous runs for that day.   It is not as cold on Saturday either.   

 

Here is what that day looked like 2 days ago...

 

gfs_T850a_us_39.png

 

 

And now...

 

gfs_T850a_us_31.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really impressive improvement on the GFS ensemble.  Besides the much lower mean during week two the operational drops to -11 and the control drops to -14 on the 850s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Impressive cold signal on the 12Z GEFS by 312 hours.... it will be interesting to see if the EPS gets on board.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-str

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One thing I'm going to be very happy to see is the chilly / clear weather being progged for next weekend.  I am flat worn out with all of this crap we have been seeing.  Looking like this could be one of those years where Jan and Feb are dead opposites.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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One thing I'm going to be very happy to see is the chilly / clear weather being progged for next weekend.  I am flat worn out with all of this crap we have been seeing.  Looking like this could be one of those years where Jan and Feb are dead opposites.

 

It has truly been a train wreck of a winter from Seattle southward.  

 

And a warm and wet mess from Seattle northward for about 90% of the time too... with just a short cold period in there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think one of the most reassuring things the models have been showing is that crazy Kona low setting up.  Looks like Hawaii is going to have some terrible weather with that.  That feature usually teleconnects to pretty good things here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It has truly been a train wreck of a winter from Seattle southward.  

 

And a warm and wet mess from Seattle northward for about 90% of the time too... with just a short cold period in there.

This winter has been a train wreck for almost all of the US sans Alaska. Even Europe is having a warm winter with the exception of Scandinavia. At least the mountain snowpack is decent.

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In the shorter term the WRF still shows some snow for the EPSL tomorrow night and has actually gotten better for coverage on the Tuesday snow.  It now shows my area getting some.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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This winter has been a train wreck for almost all of the US sans Alaska. Even Europe is having a warm winter with the exception of Scandinavia. At least the mountain snowpack is decent.

 

Really a shocker actually.  The experts in Europe thought they were going to hammered just like many thought much of the US would get hammered.  Mother Nature always has surprises.  Let's see what Feb can bring.

 

I feel fortunate for the few days of wintry I got even though it wasn't as good as places just north of here.  I did have one night I got about 1.5" of snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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We won't see a February 2019 repeat, but I am not sure I really want too. Chilly and variable would be nice. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Jim do you think this cold spell could continue past the 22nd?

 

That could be pushing it, but it's possible.  The MJO could easily still be favorable at mid month according to the latest forecasts.  The MJO is totally running the show as evidenced by the last cold snap and the coming cold corresponding to an MJO in octants 4 and 5.  This time the wave progression is going to be MUCH slower.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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We won't see a February 2019 repeat, but I am not sure I really want too. Chilly and variable would be nice. 

 

100% agree with this.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We won't see a February 2019 repeat, but I am not sure I really want too. Chilly and variable would be nice. 

 

I would take a repeat for sure.  This one does look like it could be many incarnations of cold weather though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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In other news the 30 day SOI is positive for the first time in ages.  Might be time to flip to cold ENSO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Tomorrow is actually looking really nice on the 12Z ECMWF... precip keeps being pushed west with each run.   Its dry all day and partly sunny with highs in the mid 40s for the Seattle area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-1h

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And the precip barely limps inland tomorrow night into Monday morning on the 12Z run... there is a little bit of snow on Sunday night but way less than previous runs have showed.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow-12hr

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking like the next 2 days could be a complete non-event even for me. Some ECMWF runs over the last 3 days showed up to 6 inches here. Now basically nothing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hold crap!  The improvement on the 500mb mean on the 12z GEFS is ridiculous.

 

 

post-222-0-81682900-1580580462_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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We won't see a February 2019 repeat, but I am not sure I really want too. Chilly and variable would be nice.

 

If the long range GFS is right I could have some very chilly ski days mid-month. Talking 17/5 here.

 

Never experienced subzero on Mt Hood. Pretty much the easiest way to do so in Oregon is head east of the Cascades in winter and get lucky like I did in December 2016.

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12Z ECMWF shows most of Tuesday being dry now... with a little snow in the evening with a warm front. Temps rising overnight... near 40 in Seattle by late evening. WRF is going to be wrong.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow-3hr-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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