February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion

[TT-SEA 3764]

Cherry picking extreme.

 

Cherry picking what?   

 

Please tell me.    I am looking at the periods when the snow was shown to happen.    I want to know the specific details and timing at this point since we are talking about the next 48 hours.  

[HighlandExperience 1458]

Half inch to an inch. Along the lines of what I was thinking.

 

Better than nothing

[Phil 11798]

It just does not look that cold though overall. Even the blocky runs don't look too cold.

 

I imagine this pattern on the 12Z GFS is also a negative PNA pattern. As been mentioned... that chart is just a summary of the current models.

 

Because that is technically a weak -PNA.

 

For reference, are the EOFs for the +PNA (calculated differently depending on the time of year). Invert then color bar and you likewise have the -PNA.

 

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

Temps are dropping...was 54 at midnight now down to 47.

[HighlandExperience 1458]

Temps are dropping...was 54 at midnight now down to 47.

Arctic front passing

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6955]

Cherry picking what?   

 

Please tell me.    I am looking at the periods when the snow was shown to happen.    I want to know the specific details and timing at this point since we are talking about the next 48 hours.

 

I'm just poking fun Tim. I would like to see those same frames you posted with the gfs. Dry and cold would be good. Dry and wind. The earth needs to dry out around here a bit.

[Phil 11798]

That’s why these teleconnection indices don’t always offer local predictability. They’re calculated over very large domains and therefore many variants of patterns can produce the same “number” for PNA/NAO/etc even if said patterns are nothing alike.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Half inch to an inch. Along the lines of what I was thinking.

 

 

 

The snow in your area and my area appears to come on Monday morning... unfortunately temps are shown to be above freezing at that time as well.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Looking like the next 2 days could be a complete non-event even for me. Some ECMWF runs over the last 3 days showed up to 6 inches here. Now basically nothing.

 

Same here. Models were showing up to 6" of snow tonight into tomorrow, now mostly dry. Still chilly. Sunday and Monday night are forecast to drop into the mid-20s. 

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

That could be pushing it, but it's possible.  The MJO could easily still be favorable at mid month according to the latest forecasts.  The MJO is totally running the show as evidenced by the last cold snap and the coming cold corresponding to an MJO in octants 4 and 5.  This time the wave progression is going to be MUCH slower.

Hopefully something pans out next month...potential is there for something to happen still in the LR models. Hopefully the models look better in a week or so.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Because that is technically a weak -PNA.

 

For reference, are the EOFs for the +PNA (calculated differently depending on the time of year). Invert then color bar and you likewise have the -PNA.

 

 

 

Good information... I was going to ask for PNA example maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Cascade snow pack took a big hit the past two days in Oregon. E. Oregon still above average though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6955]

I've lived here for 20 years and I can say without a doubt this is the wettest the ground has been here. There is water in places I've never had before. There is literally a stream running out of the woods down my driveway for the first time ever. Pretty incredible. Almost 22 inches of water here in January.

[mtep 272]

what site do you guys use for past/historic weather stats? 

[TT-SEA 3764]

I've lived here for 20 years and I can say without a doubt this is the wettest the ground has been here. There is water in places I've never had before. There is literally a stream running out of the woods down my driveway for the first time ever. Pretty incredible. Almost 22 inches of water here in January.

 

I also noticed that there are random streams pouring out of the woods all over the place along our road... in places where there are no streams and there is never any running water.

[HighlandExperience 1458]

I've lived here for 20 years and I can say without a doubt this is the wettest the ground has been here. There is water in places I've never had before. There is literally a stream running out of the woods down my driveway for the first time ever. Pretty incredible. Almost 22 inches of water here in January.

I had high expectations for this winter. I thought low solar might make it amazing. So far feeels like a dud for most of the country.

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6955]

I also noticed that there are random streams pouting out of the woods all over the place along our road... in places where there are no streams and there is never any running water.

The mess from the storm and water running down the drive. First time in 20 years.

[Front Ranger 7606]

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6955]

Honestly all kidding aside the place is not the same without Dewey. I enjoy all the different people and personalities on here and just like when Tim was banned it was not the same. Really miss the Dewey comedy.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Honestly all kidding aside the place is not the same without Dewey. I enjoy all the different people and personalities on here and just like when Tim was banned it was not the same. Really miss the Dewey comedy.

 

Yeah... we need Matt as the voice of reason.     I am hoping he will just show up again at some point.  And he just does not want to make it look like he is desperate to come back.   

[Phil 11798]

This winter has been a train wreck for almost all of the US sans Alaska. Even Europe is having a warm winter with the exception of Scandinavia. At least the mountain snowpack is decent.

That’s an understatement. My seasonal low of 18.3*F is by far the warmest I’ve ever observed for a winter. Even the torch winters of 2011/12, 2016/17, 2007/08, etc all had seasonal lows at least in the single digits.

 

If that number holds, it’s bad news for the white pines, hemlocks, and silver firs here that depend on sharp winter cold snaps to beat back various fungal and insect infections that build during the humid summers.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

52F with showers.

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6955]

Off topic but I like to post pics of automotive accomplishments from time to time here. This is my mustang I built and it made it onto a automotive calander this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

I had about 15.2" of rain in January. Well above average, but not even close to January 2012, March 2012, or December 2015.

[Jesse 8952]

Honestly all kidding aside the place is not the same without Dewey. I enjoy all the different people and personalities on here and just like when Tim was banned it was not the same. Really miss the Dewey comedy.

I think he’s in a bit of a bind now since coming crawling back after being reprimanded sort of goes against his carefully cultivated persona here.

 

I agree that I enjoy his humor and knowledge (when he shows it) though. Hope to see him back at some point.

[El_Nina 1184]

This is in response to Omegaraptor yesterday, accidentally put this in the old thread.

I decided to delve deeper into the precipitation of what I consider to be our flip months of May and June.

Portland average rainfall for May is 2.50", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got (2.57") and each May since then has run a rainfall deficit of over a half inch, at the least. In 2015(0.59") and 2016(0.16") it basically didn't rain in May. 2015 was especially hard on the ecosystem I bet because it ended up staying very dry through June(0.40") as well.

Portland average rainfall for June is 1.70", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got 2.32". We came close to average in 2016(1.42") but that was already following a May with nearly an inch of rainfall deficit so still quite dry there. June 2015(0.40") and June 2019(0.45") were remarkably bad.

Count in how warm it also was during this stretch and you can see how late spring is becoming summer.

[Jesse 8952]

This is in response to Omegaraptor yesterday, accidentally put this in the old thread.

I decided to delve deeper into the precipitation of what I consider to be our flip months of May and June.

Portland average rainfall for May is 2.50", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got (2.57") and each May since then has run a rainfall deficit of over a half inch, at the least. In 2015(0.59") and 2016(0.16") it basically didn't rain in May. 2015 was especially hard on the ecosystem I bet because it ended up staying very dry through June(0.40") as well.

Portland average rainfall for June is 1.70", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got 2.32". We came close to average in 2016(1.42") but that was already following a May with nearly an inch of rainfall deficit so still quite dry there. June 2015(0.40") and June 2019(0.45") were remarkably bad.

Count in how warm it also was during this stretch and you can see how late spring is becoming summer.

Good stuff. Yeah that was a pretty typical loosely researched Omegapost.

[van city 383]

Tim.

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z ECMWF shows a decent block forming around day 10 like the GFS... but there is just very little real cold air available.

Given that the GFS seems to be way too aggressive with cold air in that range... it might end up just being a drier and cooler period. That would certainly make sense in terms of progression after what will be an extremely wet 7-week period... after all the rain this coming week.

 

Just speculation... which is usually proven wrong.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

12Z ECMWF shows a decent block forming around day 10 like the GFS... but there is just very little real cold air available.

 

Given that the GFS seems to be way too aggressive with cold air in that range... it might end up just being a drier and cooler period. That would certainly make sense in terms of progression after what will be an extremely wet 7-week period... after all the rain this coming week.

 

Just speculation... which is usually proven wrong.  

 

That would be fine by me. Or maybe it is underestimating the cold air available. GFS did really well with this weekend. 

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z EPS at day 8...

 

[van city 383]

How is the magnificent EPS looking?

[bainbridgekid 3887]

Classic example of the PCSZ this morning. Completely unmodeled by the WRF.

 

If we could get something like this going tomorrow night, we'd be in business in Snohomish County.

 

[ItBurnsOregon 58]

Still on the warm side of the front over here. Pushing 54 degrees still and didn't really get much below that overnight. Pretty crazy for Feb. 1st over here.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Classic example of the PCSZ this morning. Completely unmodeled by the WRF.

 

If we could get something like this going tomorrow night, we'd be in business in Snohomish County.

 

WUNIDS_map (4).gif

 

 

The ECMWF has showed the c-zone today for many days.    ECMWF has a good handle on the situation as usual in the short range (within 72 hours).

 

Here was the run last night for this current 3-hour period:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Still on the warm side of the front over here. Pushing 54 degrees still and didn't really get much below that overnight. Pretty crazy for Feb. 1st over here.

 

Looks like BURNS had a low of 28 and is currently up to 40. 

 

But it is in the mid-50s in Central Oregon... So we can keep playing this game... Or not because you suck at it. 

[bainbridgekid 3887]

The ECMWF has showed the c-zone today for many days.  

 

Here was the run last night for this current 3-hour period:

 

I said it was unmodeled by the WRF. The Euro has shown it and I've been looking at every frame of it for the last week. Good example of how much better the Euro is with local details.

[TT-SEA 3764]

I said it was unmodeled by the WRF. The Euro has shown it and I've been looking at every frame of it for the last week. Good example of how much better the Euro is with local details.

 

 

 

Yeah... the WRF is a joke for surface details unless it agrees with the ECMWF.     

[El_Nina 1184]

Seattle averages 1.90" rain for May, they haven't reached or gone over that amount since 2014 when they got 3.15". Got close with 1.77" in 2017. 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019 all featured May's with less than an inch of rain at Seattle. Each one of those May's, with the exception of 2016, also had Junes following it with less than an inch of rain. 

Seattle averages 1.60" of rain in June and has reached that twice out of the last 6 years. Outside of those two years (2016,2017) each June since 2014(including 2014) has seen less than an inch of rain.

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z EPS at the end of day 10... just not much cold air available at that time which is similar to what the ECMWF is showing.

 

 

 

The EPS locked in on the cold air mass this weekend right away when it came into view at day 15.   The consistency has been amazing.  

[VancouverIslandSouth 1741]

Calm and sunny in Victoria this morning, actually ended up with a bit of basement flooding as a result of the heavy rain last night. Ended up with a storm total of 2.4" in about 24 hours, the WRF had a pretty good read on this one.

[TT-SEA 3764]

The 12Z EPS does show the block offshore and the western trough by the end of day 11.... this is the same basic pattern that the GEFS shows but its quite a bit warmer.

 

 

[Omegaraptor 2393]

This is in response to Omegaraptor yesterday, accidentally put this in the old thread.

I decided to delve deeper into the precipitation of what I consider to be our flip months of May and June.

Portland average rainfall for May is 2.50", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got (2.57") and each May since then has run a rainfall deficit of over a half inch, at the least. In 2015(0.59") and 2016(0.16") it basically didn't rain in May. 2015 was especially hard on the ecosystem I bet because it ended up staying very dry through June(0.40") as well.

Portland average rainfall for June is 1.70", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got 2.32". We came close to average in 2016(1.42") but that was already following a May with nearly an inch of rainfall deficit so still quite dry there. June 2015(0.40") and June 2019(0.45") were remarkably bad.

Count in how warm it also was during this stretch and you can see how late spring is becoming summer.

To be fair, May and June have been such persistent torches the last several years it’s almost a joke now. It’s probably just chance and the whole 2014 and after ridgy regime, but then again look what happened to January in the past 30 years.

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

February already! Time flies.

 

January was pretty warm across the table even though I still had a snowier than average month. We'll see what the 2nd half of my season brings.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Cold air is entenched across the west by the end of day 12:

 

[Runtmc 67]

I think he’s in a bit of a bind now since coming crawling back after being reprimanded sort of goes against his carefully cultivated persona here.

 

I agree that I enjoy his humor and knowledge (when he shows it) though. Hope to see him back at some point.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

To be fair, May and June have been such persistent torches the last several years it’s almost a joke now.

 

True fact. 

[MossMan 10611]

The 12Z EPS does show the block offshore and the western trough by the end of day 11.... this is the same basic pattern that the GEFS shows but its quite a bit warmer.

 

 

In flux.

Power is still out. 42 degrees, cloudy, and breezy.

[El_Nina 1184]

To be fair, May and June have been such persistent torches the last several years it’s almost a joke now. It’s probably just chance and the whole 2014 and after ridgy regime, but then again look what happened to January in the past 30 years.

It's certainly a thing. Dry torches

[GHweatherChris 3525]

I still believe!