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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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It wants to keep trying at the end of the run, but the block is pretty exhausted at that point. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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Clown range living up to its name.

Snow frame starts at hour 288 and doesn’t stop until 366.

I don’t generally associate clowns with snow. Crushing fear, maybe.

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PDX ensemble mean bottoms out around -9C. By the 16th however, two distinctly varied camps emerge in the ensembles. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I really miss the 5"+ overrunning events we used to have here, they have been non existant for a long time now.

Didn't you do fairly well with the end of the event last year? I remember you had snow for a couple hours longer than the swamp if i believe correct. 

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With major blocking, do lows often spin up off the coast of Washington like we saw a couple weeks ago? Or is that rare?

It’s pretty common. But it depends on just exactly if or how the cold trough digs out over the ocean. When the arctic air pours out over the warmer ocean we often see lower pressure develop.
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Holy mother of God what a run!  I am in disbelief at the roll February is on.  I'm not saying I'm sold on an outcome this extreme, but some kind of an Arctic outbreak at the very least seems likely now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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On the ensemble the control dips to -15 twice and the mean is down to -9.5 at one point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Opened up the window and it's cold out there. After a couple weeks of constant warm fronts and onshore flow it's definitely a change.

 

It's also 10ºF at Mt Hood Meadows, which is certainly a surprise.

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Not sure of the exact total but it was over a foot for the month for sure, I wanna say somewhere around 17".

Yea that was better me. I only got 16" and only an inch on that last day cause we turned rain super early in the morning and almost everybody else was still snow for a couple more hours or the whole day.

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Fool me once...

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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The stuff you see on the models can and has happened... Many times.

Can confirm.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The stuff you see on the models can and has happened... Many times.

 

Remember Feb 2014 @Requiem? It was quite a bit more impressive temperature-wise for Portland than what the GFS is showing right now...

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This first trough shown a week ago was colder and very snowy. Hopefully not a trend like January.

 

When all models show the exact same progression I get excited.  And this is only a little over a week out now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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When all models show the exact same progression I get excited.  And this is only a little over a week out now.

 

I don't think it is a slam dunk by any means, but I think a period like late February 2018 or a singular "blast" on par with February 2006 are possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Definitely starting to look like a Nina and possibly a significant one is starting to develop. Getting somewhat excited about that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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29F and clear.  Gorgeous, crispy night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The stuff you see on the models can and has happened... Many times.

Yes, but earlier in January the same thing was said, not to mention last February. Both ended up being a little more than subpar, sadly. I’m hoping for a win this time though, don’t get me wrong!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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83862018_10221198691506905_6632828122469

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Yes, but earlier in January the same thing was said, not to mention last February. Both ended up being a little more than subpar, sadly. I’m hoping for a win this time though, don’t get me wrong!

Careful! That kind of talking will get you marked as a big “Debbie D”... then you will get banned twice for being to negative, Even bringing that up is just silly talk, you should know that a major arctic outbreak is guaranteed to happen! So, just shut your mouth, no one wants to hear it! 

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Definitely starting to look like a Nina and possibly a significant one is starting to develop. Getting somewhat excited about that. 

 

Canadian and Euro are still way warmer than the GFS. It has proven that it basically needs their adult supervision until one of its far-flung solutions actually verifies.

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Canadian and Euro are still way warmer than the GFS. It has proven that it basically needs their adult supervision until one of its far-flung solutions actually verifies.

Just like the last event... bummer!  :(  <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:"> I am sure it means nothing though ... I hope!  :)

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I don't think it is a slam dunk by any means, but I think a period like late February 2018 or a singular "blast" on par with February 2006 are possible.

I guess winter is over for me. Those were both non events here.

 

Down to 27.8F currently

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Holy mother of God what a run!  I am in disbelief at the roll February is on.  I'm not saying I'm sold on an outcome this extreme, but some kind of an Arctic outbreak at the very least seems likely now.

It really makes you wonder just why recent Februaries have consistently produced the goods. We'll see how this one pans out but it's looking very promising to make it four in a row (at least here).

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I guess winter is over for me. Those were both non events here.

 

Down to 27.8F currently

 

February 2018 was a non event there?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I guess winter is over for me. Those were both non events here.

 

Down to 27.8F currently

February 2006 was a dud for me as well other than a half inch of snow and some cool weather if I remember correctly. 2018 was awesome however!
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Through day 7 the ECMWF is better than last night's run.  More amplified and slightly better block placement.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Definitely starting to look like a Nina and possibly a significant one is starting to develop. Getting somewhat excited about that. 

 

Indeed.  If next winter is a Nina we could be looking at next winter having a shot at being our 5th winter in a row to have at least some enjoyable wintry weather.  That is assuming this one delivers this month.  Obviously places north of Seattle have already checked that box for this winter.  Even here the Jan cold snap wasn't a total loss.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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