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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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One important difference between this possible coming event and last month is the EPO forecast.  Last months was never forecast to have a -EPO.  This one is forecast to drop to -2.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Day 8 clearly better on the Euro vs last night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Conflicting reports.

 

On what?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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ECMWF is on board now.

 

If so, that’s a good sign. Worth keeping a bit of an eye out on this pattern.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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A dusting of snow on a few mornings with some highs in the mid to upper 30s.

 

We had a 31/16 day on the 23rd and no highs above 38 from the 20th through the end of the month. 18" of snow too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Euro is not quite as crazy as the GFS, but it is much improved.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The ECMWF is on board with the pattern.   The surface maps are not that exciting though.    Very little lowland snow... high in Seattle of 43 on day 9 and 40 on day 10.  

 

It was 43 at SEA today... so not a huge difference between today and day 10 per this run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF is on board with the pattern.   The surface maps are not that exciting though.    Very little lowland snow... high in Seattle of 43 on day 9 and 40 on day 10.  

 

It was 43 at SEA today... so not a huge difference between today and day 10 per this run.  

Probably exactly how it will play out!  :D  :unsure:  :mellow:

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The ECMWF is on board with the pattern.   The surface maps are not that exciting though.    Very little lowland snow... high in Seattle of 43 on day 9 and 40 on day 10.  

 

It was 43 at SEA today... so not a huge difference between today and day 10 per this run.  

 

Except a high of 40 in mid-February is much more difficult to pull off. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We had a 31/16 day on the 23rd and no highs above 38 from the 20th through the end of the month. 18" of snow too. 

 

Had about 11" that week.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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And not surprisingly... the 850mb map for this afternoon is not that different to what the ECMWF shows at day 10.    

 

Today:

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_1.png

 

 

Day 10:

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And not surprisingly... the 850mb map for this afternoon is not that different to what the ECMWF shows at day 10.    

 

Today:

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_1.png

 

 

Day 10:

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

 

Slightly better than today, looks good. Definitely a massive improvement from the EURO. We all know the GFS is too cold, so this is encouraging. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sounds boring

 

Its looks sunny at the end of the run... that would be some nice crisp weather.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Slightly better than today, looks good. Definitely a massive improvement from the EURO. We all know the GFS is too cold, so this is encouraging. 

 

 

Its actually quite striking how those maps look similar... eastern Canada is the only notable difference. 

 

Just glancing... I would have to look at the header to know which one is day 10.    We are living the dream right now!   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Its actually quite striking how those maps look similar... eastern Canada is the only notable difference. 

 

Just glancing... I would have to look at the header to know which one is day 10.    We are living the dream right now!   :)

Maybe surface maps, but 850s seem noticeably colder even just eyeballing it.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Its actually quite striking how those maps look similar... eastern Canada is the only notable difference.

 

Just glancing... I would have to look at the header to know which one is day 10. We are living the dream right now! :)

It is very obvious which is colder from a brief glance.

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Maybe surface maps, but 850s seem noticeably colder even just eyeballing it.

It's a little colder. But it's not that different for us. About 3 degrees colder and more sunny than today. At face value of course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's a little colder. But it's not that different for us. About 3 degrees colder and more sunny than today. At face value of course.

 

Airmass over the Columbia Basin is quite a bit cooler. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It is very obvious which is colder from a brief glance.

My point is that is that its very similar. And not just in the PNW.

 

Big picture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF is on board with the pattern.   The surface maps are not that exciting though.    Very little lowland snow... high in Seattle of 43 on day 9 and 40 on day 10.  

 

It was 43 at SEA today... so not a huge difference between today and day 10 per this run.  

GFS doesn't show much snow within 10 days anyway and it also look dry from Day 7 to 10. As I mentioned earlier, the snow frames doesn't start until hour 266.

 

Correction: Hour 288. So it's still ways out. 

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GFS doesn't show much snow within 10 days anyway and it also look dry from Day 7 to 10. As I mentioned earlier, the snow frames doesn't start until hour 266.

Yeah... after day 10 is when it could get much more interesting.

 

Or it could just be a sunny, cold period.

 

Which some people would find very interesting. Not everyone agrees on what makes for a good outcome.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FYI - The coldest record min-maxes at PDX the week of the 11-18th are 30-31, many are in the 35-38 range though. Just for some perspective.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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If I were a betting man I’d say the weather 10 days from now will be different from today’s as well as from what the models are currently showing. Stand by for updates...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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After February 16th PDX only has one record min-max below freezing. The more you know. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Surface pressure gradients might matter a wee bit too...

Absolutely.

 

But even so... it shows it being about 3 degrees colder than today on day 10.

 

Again... some people are huge into stats and that is a big deal. I probably would not notice the difference if its sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If I were a betting man I’d say the weather 10 days from now will be different from today’s as well as from what the models are currently showing. Stand by for updates...

Yeah... it will probably be totally different anyways.

 

I am waiting for the ECMWF to start showing lowland snow within 10 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1995

 

Yep, on the 13th. 

 

2/17/36 was a big one too. Before the period of record at PDX, but SLE pulled off a 24/19 on that day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like the coldest period on the 00Z EPS is around day 10 and 11. The cold starts shifting farther east after that time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... it will probably be totally different anyways.

 

I am waiting for the ECMWF to start showing lowland snow within 10 days.

 

The cold shot in the day 8-10 range is looking dry right now because it is pretty backdoor. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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