February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion

[Timmy 2209]

Looks like BURNS had a low of 28 and is currently up to 40.

 

But it is in the mid-50s in Central Oregon... So we can keep playing this game... Or not because you suck at it.

busted!

[TT-SEA 3705]

Retrograding by day 14... not good news for Randy!

 

[MossMan 10571]

Retrograding by day 14... not good news for Randy!

 

Well perhaps Sea Tac will shut down on the 16th due to massive snows.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

To be fair, May and June have been such persistent torches the last several years it’s almost a joke now. It’s probably just chance and the whole 2014 and after ridgy regime, but then again look what happened to January in the past 30 years.

 

It is true I have seen quite a few warm Springs, but locally Spring 2019 wasn't one of my warmest in the decade.

2017 and even 2018 was a tad warmer, and drier.

[snow_wizard 11695]

Nice improvement on the EPS for week two and that's after nice improvement on the 0z vs yesterday's 12z.  Much sharper trough over the NW.  Looks like this might be it.  We'll see.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

The spring of 2011 seems but a dream now. 

[snow_wizard 11695]

Honestly all kidding aside the place is not the same without Dewey. I enjoy all the different people and personalities on here and just like when Tim was banned it was not the same. Really miss the Dewey comedy.

 

What happened to him?

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

The spring of 2011 seems but a dream now. 

 

2011 wasn't even a normal one, it's hilarious that was my first Spring I experienced here and locals commented how cool it was.

[snow_wizard 11695]

Nice to see the ECMWF still showing snow here tomorrow night.  Hopefully that will just be the opening act for a great month.

[TT-SEA 3705]

Nice improvement on the EPS for week two and that's after nice improvement on the 0z vs yesterday's 12z.  Much sharper trough over the NW.  Looks like this might be it.  We'll see.

 

 

WAY too soon to say that.     

 

The signal on the 12Z EPS in the 10-15 day period is not nearly as strong as the lead up to the last event in mid-January.

 

[TacomaWaWx 4349]

WAY too soon to say that.     

 

The signal on the 12Z EPS in the 10-15 day period is not nearly as strong as the lead up to the last event in mid-January.

 

looks chilly but nothing crazy yet...hopefully it trends better.

[TT-SEA 3705]

The spring of 2011 seems but a dream now. 

 

 

Man that was a depressing spring... like seriously depressing.    So wrong.   Luckily it was the coldest spring ever here and not even close to representative of normal.  

[snow_wizard 11695]

looks chilly but nothing crazy yet...hopefully it trends better.

 

The big story is the improving trend.  Yesterday's 12z was horrible, the 0z better, this run better still.  Combined with the huge GEFS improvement and decent operational runs by day 10 we are on the right track.  The MJO is where we want it and every model really emphasizes the Kona low as well as a SE ridge trying to set up.

[snow_wizard 11695]

I also like how Tim uses the 5 day average to water down the look of how cold the EPS gets. 

[TT-SEA 3705]

looks chilly but nothing crazy yet...hopefully it trends better.

 

 

You captured my mistake.   I had loaded the 9.75-14.75 map by accident and then tried to replace it with the 10-15 day map.   You quoted it in between.  

[TacomaWaWx 4349]

The big story is the improving trend.  Yesterday's 12z was horrible, the 0z better, this run better still.  Combined with the huge GEFS improvement and decent operational runs by day 10 we are on the right track.  The MJO is where we want it and every model really emphasizes the Kona low as well as a SE ridge trying to set up.

There’s definitely still some positive signs that make me hopeful for mid February.

[Jesse 8879]

[TT-SEA 3705]

I also like how Tim uses the 5 day average to water down the look of how cold the EPS gets. 

 

 

I always use 5-day average mean in the 10-15 day range.   Timing will change in that period.   It just gives you a good idea of the general picture.

 

Did you notice that I was also posting daily maps as well in the 10-15 day period?   Just ignoring that part?

 

In the lead up to the last event.... the signal was very strong on those 10-15 day maps.   And I posted them every day.   It is very meaningful when it shows a strong signal on the 10-15 map.  The trend could easily reverse again by the way.   

[MossMan 10571]

What happened to him?

Someone reported him for his “We need to kill Tim” comment...Which he has said jokingly in Matt’s sarcastic way which he has for years but I think a new person did not get that. He’s unbanned now but I think he is protesting and has left permanently.

[HighlandExperience 1458]

Someone reported him for his “We need to kill Tim” comment...Which he has said jokingly in Matt’s sarcastic way which he has for years but I think a new person did not get that. He’s unbanned now but I think he is protesting and has left permanently.

 

I'm sure that person knew exactly what they were doing. 

[TT-SEA 3705]

12Z EPS at day 15:

 

[FroYoBro 2649]

It’s nice that the air feels a bit more seasonable out there after the cold front passed.

[Jesse 8879]

It’s nice that the air feels a bit more seasonable out there after the cold front passed.

 

I was just noticing the same thing.

[TT-SEA 3705]

I also like how Tim uses the 5 day average to water down the look of how cold the EPS gets. 

 

Side note... I post cold maps all the time.   I posted hundreds of very cold EPS maps leading up to the last event.    But I would say someone who only posts cold maps on here and never a warm map or warm trend is just strongly pushing their own narrative... way more than me.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

I put up a 57/51 yesterday. About as warm as it can get here in January. 

 

Currently down to 45 with rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

Side note... I post cold maps all the time.   I posted hundreds of very cold EPS maps leading up to the last event.    But I would say someone who only posts cold maps on here and never a warm map or warm trend is just strongly pushing their own narrative... way more than me.   

 

One difference which may be significant for us southern folks is the airmass seems to dig further south this time. 

[TT-SEA 3705]

One difference which may be significant for us southern folks is the airmass seems to dig further south this time. 

 

 

Totally agree... I also said the same thing a couple days ago.   The cold signal is not just focused on SW BC like in the lead up to the last event.   It covers most of the west this time. 

 

 

I also don't think a weak southward push will screw us this time. The EPS was insistent on keeping the last brush with arctic air mostly to the north. Not this time.

[ItBurnsOregon 58]

Looks like BURNS had a low of 28 and is currently up to 40.

 

But it is in the mid-50s in Central Oregon... So we can keep playing this game... Or not because you suck at it.

Let's just talk weather...ok?

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

 

 

Watch it Jesse, don't wanna get banned using too many emo-jees 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

Totally agree... I also said the same thing a couple days ago.   The cold signal is not just focused on SW BC like in the lead up to the last event.   It covers most of the west this time. 

 

Very likely it ends up cooler compared to average down here than the January event, and much warmer compared to average north of Everett. 

 

Also getting into mid-February something like 40/24 in the Willamette Valley is a double digit negative departure. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6937]

Well perhaps Sea Tac will shut down on the 16th due to massive snows.

We are screwed man.

[bainbridgekid 3866]

Northbound I-5 blocked by a landslide North of Mt. Vernon.

 

No estimate for when the road will reopen yet. Tough spot since there are very limited alternate N/S routes up there.

[Jginmartini 3802]

Sound was quite agitated this morning!  Lots of people besides me down there enjoying the waves.  Felt a little chilly as well.

Currently sun breaks 

47*

.92 precipitation 

SSW wind 15–20

[TT-SEA 3705]

We are screwed man.

I am not so sure about that yet. I would have been more likely to say that at 10-15 days out from the last event.

[Front Ranger 7604]

It has truly been a train wreck of a winter from Seattle southward.  

 

And a warm and wet mess from Seattle northward for about 90% of the time too... with just a short cold period in there.

 

Of course, Dec/Jan followed an exceptionally sunny Oct/Nov combo.

[TT-SEA 3705]

Northbound I-5 blocked by a landslide North of Mt. Vernon.

 

No estimate for when the road will reopen yet. Tough spot since there are very limited alternate N/S routes up there.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

Of course, Dec/Jan followed an exceptionally sunny Oct/Nov combo.

 

Also it is interesting to note it was the coldest SON at SLE since 1985. December/Jan deviated big time from that year however. 

[TT-SEA 3705]

Of course, Dec/Jan followed an exceptionally sunny Oct/Nov combo.

 

I have said that many times as well.

 

Debt has been paid in full now across western WA... as of this morning SEA is about +2.60 inches since October 1st and OLM is more than +4 inches in that time frame.   Even more impressive is KUIL which is more than +12 inches since October 1st.

[snow_wizard 11695]

Nice analogs today!  On the last event many of the analogs weren't great as far as outcome.  These are quite a bit better.

 

[Front Ranger 7604]

This is in response to Omegaraptor yesterday, accidentally put this in the old thread.

I decided to delve deeper into the precipitation of what I consider to be our flip months of May and June.

Portland average rainfall for May is 2.50", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got (2.57") and each May since then has run a rainfall deficit of over a half inch, at the least. In 2015(0.59") and 2016(0.16") it basically didn't rain in May. 2015 was especially hard on the ecosystem I bet because it ended up staying very dry through June(0.40") as well.

Portland average rainfall for June is 1.70", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got 2.32". We came close to average in 2016(1.42") but that was already following a May with nearly an inch of rainfall deficit so still quite dry there. June 2015(0.40") and June 2019(0.45") were remarkably bad.

Count in how warm it also was during this stretch and you can see how late spring is becoming summer.

 

Eh, way too short of a trend to say it means anything seasonally. These things are often streaky and then reverse.

 

February was in a fairly big funk until 2011.

[TT-SEA 3705]

Eh, way too short of a trend to say it means anything seasonally. These things are often streaky and then reverse.

 

February was in a fairly big funk until 2011.

 

 

100% agree.   So many different seasonal cycles in play all the time.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

Eh, way too short of a trend to say it means anything seasonally. These things are often streaky and then reverse.

 

February was in a fairly big funk until 2011.

 

It was also quite common to have February being the driest winter month. Unless my memory was foggy I just don't recall as many impressive rainfall events in the 2000's in February when I lived in Hillsboro.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Side note... I post cold maps all the time.   I posted hundreds of very cold EPS maps leading up to the last event.    But I would say someone who only posts cold maps on here and never a warm map or warm trend is just strongly pushing their own narrative... way more than me.  

 

It's high time you put together a spreadsheet tracking all the maps you post, and which category they fall into. And who you hope will respond to each one.

[hawkstwelve 7241]

18z 3km NAM doesn't look too bad for Monday morning.

[Front Ranger 7604]

I have said that many times as well.

 

Debt has been paid in full now across western WA... as of this morning SEA is about +2.60 inches since October 1st and OLM is more than +4 inches in that time frame.   Even more impressive is KUIL which is more than +12 inches since October 1st.

 

The rainy season still hasn't been all that wet on average, though. Water YTD looks almost exactly the same.

 

[TT-SEA 3705]

It's high time you put together a spreadsheet tracking all the maps you post, and which category they fall into. And who you hope will respond to each one.

 

Yeah... its hopeless.   Someone will find a way to get pissed about some map almost every day.     

 

But I have posted literally hundreds of cold maps in the last 2 months.   Some people have never posted a warm map ever.   Say what you want about pushing narratives... but I someone who only posts cold maps is strongly pushing their narrative.   

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

18z 3km NAM doesn't look too bad for Monday morning.

 

Could you post the Oregon map?

[SilverFallsAndrew 14819]

The rainy season still hasn't been all that wet on average, though. Water YTD looks almost exactly the same.

 

90dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Yeah Eugene is still at only about 60% on the rainy season which is about 11" below normal. 

[TT-SEA 3705]

The rainy season still hasn't been all that wet on average, though. Water YTD looks almost exactly the same.

 

90dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

Those WRCC maps are not accurate.   January has clearly proved that since it was unquestionably very wet everywhere in western WA.  

 

SEA was 3.66 inches above normal for January... and OLM was 7.72 inches above normal.   Sure would not know that looking at this map.

 

 

 

We speculated the other day that they probably include stations that don't report all precip... so while it can never look wetter than reality... it often looks drier than reality.   

 

There is no way to objectively say the WRCC map for January is accurate.    It would be dishonest. 

 

But its a great tool for those who want to convince themselves that its been drier than reality.  

[iFred 5174]

Yeah... its hopeless.   Someone will find a way to get pissed about some map almost every day.     

 

But I have posted literally hundreds of cold maps in the last 2 months.   Some people have literally never posted a warm map ever.   Say what you want about pushing narratives... but I someone who only posts cold maps strongly pushing their narrative.