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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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06z GFS gave us a nice 384hr snowfall map again! Yay!

 

Best snow map yet, by far, for W. Oregon. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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Best snow map yet, by far, for W. Oregon.

I find it hard to believe EUG sees that little compared to the rest of the valley but I guess a lot of that snow will melt on impact. Will be a borderline situation here but feels like Feb 1995. Where there was a nice Willamette Valley Special, dropping 3” or more for the valley.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

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I find it hard to believe EUG sees that little compared to the rest of the valley but I guess a lot of that snow will melt on impact. Will be a borderline situation here but feels like Feb 1995. Where there was a nice Willamette Valley Special, dropping 3” or more for the valley.

 

We had about 6" in Silverton with that event. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Pretty crazy 6z run!  The ensemble control model is very cold also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It's interesting to note the 0z ECMWF and the 6z GFS introduce that new idea of some very cold air back digging toward us from NWT next week.  That seems to end up digging a trough out slightly over the ocean to pick up moisture.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 10

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Well looks like the GEM EURO and GFS all show cold air and potential snow within 10 days...EURO just isn’t quite as cold and overall not as good. We’ve got another model battle it seems.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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44 and drizzly this morning. 0.09” here so far today...1.48” for February.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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43F with light rain.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Wow just an insane few days! Yesterday’s snow, now the rain...a ton of rain! Last night before bed the snow had melted from the gauge plus it was raining, was up to .20” at 11pm. Then the reset at midnight and currently I am at 1.33” since midnight. My major drainage system is keeping up but it’s a ton of water! Snow not melting as fast as I thought it would with that much rain! Currently 38 degrees.

A57C0EE2-C66B-4121-8912-A572F0C0861D.jpeg

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Wow just an insane few days! Yesterday’s snow, now the rain...a ton of rain! Last night before bed the snow had melted from the gauge plus it was raining, was up to .20” at 11pm. Then the reset at midnight and currently I am at 1.33” since midnight. My major drainage system is keeping up but it’s a ton of water! Snow not melting as fast as I thought it would with that much rain! Currently 38 degrees.

 

 

Looks the same here.

 

It has not been windy yet and temps are still in the upper 30s so it does not surprise me that the snow has not totally melted here.    If it gets windy with a temp into the 40s then it will go fast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This run is even colder than the 06z for next week. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Whoaaa. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_36.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Only 9 days away.

 

Monday night.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_23.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Snow for me...again.

snow for me again too! Nice to see this showing up at a more believable range...when are you supposed to be leaving on your vacation?

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Snow for me...again.

Looks like we will miss a pretty good cold spell with probable about 4-6 inches region wide is my guess. From the looks of it we will be back for a overrunning event.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Saw a report on FB of 10" of snow overnight in La Grande, OR. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Through hour 168 the GEM is not quite as cold, but pretty similar again. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The GEM ends up just as cold if not colder than the GFS.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Lots of cold rain... weeeeeee!

Go to idaho you nut!! lol. I did a ton of research on that area when i was looking for property and the bonners ferry area gets less snow than just south a bit. Priest river is a snow magnet.  My final choice was priest river before i found my land in chesaw. I could not pass up the chesaw land. 140 acres for 160k fenced and bordered on 3 sides by national forest. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Go to idaho you nut!! lol. I did a ton of research on that area when i was looking for property and the bonners ferry area gets less snow than just south a bit. Priest river is a snow magnet.  My final choice was priest river before i found my land in chesaw. I could not pass up the chesaw land. 140 acres for 160k fenced and bordered on 3 sides by national forest.

 

I’m willing to bet it still wouldn’t be enough snow for luv-snow over in Idaho.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Flips to cool NW flow in the long range. Nice. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We fly out on Sunday the 16th...Unless Sea Tac is closed!

Lol, yeah I wouldn’t worry too much about missing out on anything just yet considering it’s a few days away still. Looks interesting so far but we will see how this is shaping up by this time next week.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-6.68”

Cold season rainfall-9.85”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Next Wednesday night is looking better than ever. Single digits while I'm skiing on Mt Hood.

 

Not sure I would enjoy that, but to each their own. ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Flips to cool NW flow in the long range. Nice. 

Looks like it might reset with the block in the long range. Of course i am looking for any bit of hope for when i get back. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Ensembles are actually noticeably warmer. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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