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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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Snoqualmie River now looks like it will reach major flood stage by tomorrow.

 

Unusually relentless rain now continues into a third consecutive month.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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lol

Tucson is technically in the mountain west I think. We have frequent posters from Montana and Colorado in that sub-forum. Even Derek who is an admin and now an NWS employee lives in Phoenix and posts over there sometimes.

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The big story is how dry things look over the next 7-10 days. 12Z Euro shows less than an inch and a half for PDX through hour 240. Could be setting us up for a wetter spring hopefully...

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The big story is how dry things look over the next 7-10 days. 12Z Euro shows less than an inch and a half for PDX through hour 240. Could be setting us up for a wetter spring hopefully...

Yeah we need more rain.  After 7 weeks of nearly constant rain here I'm surely hoping for a wet spring because the Euro shows we might be dry for the next week.  It's so wet here I had to use a snorkel to get my mail this morning.  I'm hoping for some warm sunshine as soon as I put a fork in this winter. 

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Yeah we need more rain.  After 7 weeks of nearly constant rain here I'm surely hoping for a wet spring because the Euro shows we might be dry for the next week.  It's so wet here I had to use a snorkel to get my mail this morning.  I'm hoping for some warm sunshine as soon as I put a fork in this winter. 

Please send some down to Lake Tahoe. This is turning into one of the all time worst winters on record. We need a Miracle March at this point. 

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Good for me, not great for you guys.

Wow, very cool.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Tucson is technically in the mountain west I think. We have frequent posters from Montana and Colorado in that sub-forum. Even Derek who is an admin and now an NWS employee lives in Phoenix and posts over there sometimes.

Derek. I remember that guy from awhile back. What was his name on here? I can’t remember, and didn’t his dad post on here as well? And Marks weather blog too.

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Yeah we need more rain. After 7 weeks of nearly constant rain here I'm surely hoping for a wet spring because the Euro shows we might be dry for the next week. It's so wet here I had to use a snorkel to get my mail this morning. I'm hoping for some warm sunshine as soon as I put a fork in this winter.

That was a very weak troll attempt by him. Don't participate.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tucson

Great for me, not so much for you guys lol

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Anyway, back here in reality...most of the region is still running below average water year to date.

 

F1E73D21-68EF-452D-B9A5-2CEFFCDDE02B.png

 

But, we finally saw one slightly wet month for the region. Hopefully it gets really really dry again now to make up for this travesty, ASAP!

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That was a very weak troll attempt by him. Don't participate.

Not so sure it was.  The greener the better you know.   Anyway thanks for the heads-up.

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Oh come on. Really immature guys.

 

Fine fine fine, I'll change it back. You might want to check out the subforum for the Mountain West folk and explain what you are going to see with colder departures other than highs in the low 60s.

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Some actual departures since 10/1:

 

BLI +0.25

 

SEA +2.47

 

OLM + 3.91

 

HQM +1.64

 

UIL +11.97

 

 

Its been wet for most of western WA.

 

Nice thing looking forward is that its also been close to record-setting persistently wet for western WA and SW BC for almost 2 months. I am really liking the odds of a drier than normal spring at this point. Time will tell. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not so sure it was.  The greener the better you know.   Anyway thanks for the heads-up.

Not so sure it was.  The greener the better you know.   Anyway thanks for the heads-up.

You have him off of ignore now?

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Fine fine fine, I'll change it back. You might want to check out the subforum for the Mountain West folk and explain what you are going to see with colder departures other than highs in the low 60s.

The problem with going on that sub is that this is really the only thread that’s active on this forum (not to mention Tucson isn’t really mountain west, can’t really draw any parallels between our weather and that of Wyoming/Montana).

 

Anyway, looks like today will end up with a high of 48F after a low of 23F. I hope we all score with next weeks event, it’s certainly possible. A repeat of last year would be ideal.

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You have him off of ignore now?

 

Yeah, I only had him on ignore because of his warm and diabolically well timed charts.  It's so late in the season it doesn't bother me much anymore.

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The problem with going on that sub is that this is really the only thread that’s active on this forum (not to mention Tucson isn’t really mountain west, can’t really draw any parallels between our weather and that of Wyoming/Montana).

 

Anyway, looks like today will end up with a high of 48F after a low of 23F. I hope we all score with next weeks event, it’s certainly possible. A repeat of last year would be ideal.

if it’s not in the mountain west, it definitely isn’t in the PNW. If you want to contribute and not be continually bashed for posting about weather in a place that’s boring and no one here cares about. Take notes from the likes of Phil, Kayla, front ranger and post about your own weather sparingly.
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The biggest story of the winter so far has been the crazy persistent rain.    

 

 

sea-nws.png

 

 

sea-nws-1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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if it’s not in the mountain west, it definitely isn’t in the PNW. If you want to contribute and not be continually bashed for posting about weather in a place that’s boring and no one here cares about. Take notes from the likes of Phil, Kayla, front ranger and post about your own weather sparingly.

 

I don't mind him posting current conditions. It is the continual model analysis with no perspective of what area he is talking about that gets annoying. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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So according to the Euro it appears that winter will be quickly winding down with no events in the foreseeable future. At least Washington north of Seattle saw quite a bit of action since the death of the SFH of early winter. A good cold/snowy event, a few AR’s and a healthy windstorm, another snowy event just yesterday...Not bad.

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I don't mind him posting current conditions. It is the continual model analysis with no perspective of what area he is talking about that gets annoying.

 

I agree with this. Andrew.

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Can we all just please focus on the fact Tim is immortal and Josh just wants to talk weather?

it is hard to focus when there are a lot of things to focus on.

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But the water year has been drier than normal, and that's all that matters.

 

 

It actually has not been drier than normal for western WA this water year so far.    All of the major reporting stations are wetter than normal and a browse through WRCC sites across western WA all show the same thing.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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if it’s not in the mountain west, it definitely isn’t in the PNW. If you want to contribute and not be continually bashed for posting about weather in a place that’s boring and no one here cares about. Take notes from the likes of Phil, Kayla, front ranger and post about your own weather sparingly.

I'd be happy to post model output charts like this one for other posters locations. Just ask!

 

HYeoTQo.jpg

 

I can do EPS, GEFS, and GFS, as well. 

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The biggest story of the winter so far has been the crazy persistent rain.    

 

 

sea-nws.png

 

If you listen carefully a broken record is playing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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