February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion

[DJ Droppin 8341]

We've gone from a stable, amplified block to an absolute mess. We had several days of good GFS Ensemble runs and several cold EPS as well, but it was always outside of Day 6-7. It's never 'likely' until we're inside that Day 3 72hr window. Ah well. Winter 2020 begins in 319 days!

[Phil 11091]

Not a climate alarmist, but the total lack of cold anywhere on the globe right now besides Alaska is fairly disturbing considering the lack of a real El Nino. We really need something to shake things up. Tambora still active?

This needs context.

 

First, we’re in a very El Niño - like state as far as the tropical circulation (Hadley/Walker ratos & Indo/West-Pacific Warm Pool) is concerned, and this heat engine is the initial trigger for the global temperature responses to “ENSO”. That +IOD/weak WC/strong HC system will warm the atmosphere/expel heat irrespective of the ONI number. And it so happens it was/is a powerhouse this winter.

 

Second, it’s the warmest January on *one source*. The satellite data and surface data have continue to diverge over the last decade, and I’ve never trusted the land surface component of the latter.

 

And the pattern we’ve had (+EPO/+AO/strong PV) is naturally a “warm globe” pattern as well since it coincides with a more stable tropical profile (weaker convection/less cloud cover) and reduced wind speeds around the NH and tropics/subtropics, which reduces evaporative cooling of the sea surface as well as vertical mixing.

[GHweatherChris 2909]

Phil’s gonna give you a talkin’ to.

Confirmed.

 

Good call!

[BLI snowman 5904]

This needs context.

 

First, we’re in a very El Niño - like state as far as the tropical circulation (Hadley/Walker ratos & Indo/West-Pacific Warm Pool) is concerned, and this heat engine is the initial trigger for the global temperature responses to “ENSO”. That +IOD/weak WC/strong HC system will warm the atmosphere/expel heat irrespective of the ONI number. And it so happens it was/is a powerhouse this winter.

 

Second, it’s the warmest January on *one source*. The satellite data and surface data have continue to diverge over the last decade, and I’ve never trusted the land surface component of the latter.

 

And the pattern we’ve had (+EPO/+AO/strong PV) is naturally a “warm globe” pattern as well since it coincides with a more stable tropical profile (weaker convection/less cloud cover) and reduced wind speeds around the NH and tropics/subtropics, which reduces evaporative cooling of the sea surface as well as vertical mixing.

 

 

Globally warm pattern resembles an El Nino.

 

Still not an El Nino.

[Phil 11091]

But yeah, the +EPO/+NAM/super PV regime is a good way to maximize the global temperature anomaly, weaken global wind speeds, cap tropical convection, and make the Al Gores of the world cream their jeans.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

It is what it is Phil and this one is a global stinker. Stinks to high heaven!

[MossMan 9449]

You got some snow judging by the hundreds of pictures.

But many did not!

[Phil 11091]

Globally warm pattern resembles an El Nino.

 

Still not an El Nino.

It might as well be an El Niño. Same dynamics at work.

 

The ONI isn’t what forces the temperature response. The circulation itself is the initial trigger for the change in heat flow within the ocean-atmosphere system.

 

And it’s at work presently:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

[ItBurnsOregon 58]

I've always been a proponent of never giving the models any love outside of 72 hours.

 

I always wore the number 72 in high school sports because of this.

[Cloud 1108]

If the model collapse is a result of the minor SSW, then the models may suddenly flip back to cold in the next few days. Its also possible they were wrong about the pattern change to begin with and are now playing catch up. Let's hope its not the latter.

It is unlikely to flip back in my opinion. Not without major support from the EPS.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

I've always been a proponent of never giving the models any love outside of 72 hours.

 

I always wore the number 72 in high school sports because of this.

 

You were a husky lad. 

[ItBurnsOregon 58]

You were a husky lad.

The proper term is stocky. Like george constanza.

[Phil 11091]

Notice the increasing amplitude of the WWBs over the last few months. The low frequency circulation across the tropical Indo-Pacific looks more like that of a moderate or strong El Niño.

 

Again, toss in +EPO, record breaking +AO (reached a 1950-present dataset max this winter!) & strong PV, & the result is a further reduction in deep tropical convection & global wind speeds (hence less evaporative cooling/mixing of heat within the oceans).

 

And the heat is also largely focused over the continents by the wavestations. It’s just the worst pattern possible for cold global anomalies.

[Jginmartini 3348]

Gusty south winds for the last couple hours

51*

57*

[MossMan 9449]

It stopped raining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deweydog 13361]

It stopped raining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jesse’s en route to fix it.

[MossMan 9449]

Jesse’s en route to fix it.

It just started again. Thanks a lot Jesse.

[luminen 356]

Honestly after nearly two straight months of endless precipitation, I can't wait till we get a death ridge, bringing 90s for Portland and upper 70s for here. Oh man, I cannot wait!

 

Please happen in May, please!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido 5244]

51F with light drizzle.

[MossMan 9449]

Only .76” on the day so far.

41 degrees and heavy drizzle currently.

[TT-SEA 1938]

Honestly after nearly two straight months of endless precipitation, I can't wait till we get a death ridge, bringing 90s for Portland and upper 70s for here. Oh man, I cannot wait!

 

Please happen in May, please!!!

 

 

[luminen 356]

 

It's very uncharacteristic of me to want such weather in May but this winter has been atrocious, even by North Vancouver standards, which receives roughly double the precipitation YVR does. January ranged from 16" to 21" on the North Shore with 1 or two completely dry days.

 

Even the insane run of wet months from September 2018 through December 2018 seemed sunnier than this winter despite being much wetter overall. And it was sunnier because that period had two long dry spells (one in October and one in November). None in December though of course. 

 

This winter, a rare sunny day here and there. Even Anchorage gets more sun in winter.

[SouthHillFrosty 922]

The gfs will show 20 inches of snow. Calling it now

[MossMan 9449]

I think about 98% of this forum and 99% of the general public in this region would really like a slightly drier, sunnier, and warmer spring. Now that it appears the winter outbreak is not going to happen while I am gone I am really looking forward to sun and warmth in Mexico.

[AJ1013 161]

Honestly after nearly two straight months of endless precipitation, I can't wait till we get a death ridge, bringing 90s for Portland and upper 70s for here. Oh man, I cannot wait!

 

Please happen in May, please!!!

Some massive rex blocks this spring would make us all happy

[Omegaraptor 2142]

Some massive rex blocks this spring would make us all happy

 

For sure. Wonderful sunny weather up here and epic rainstorms down there.

[TT-SEA 1938]

I think about 98% of this forum and 99% of the general public in this region would really like a slightly drier, sunnier, and warmer spring. Now that it appears the winter outbreak is not going to happen while I am gone I am really looking forward to sun and warmth in Mexico.

 

 

Not sure about that.   Its been a normal winter in terms of rain and clouds.    

 

 

 

Aside from the warmth it’s seemed like a pretty average winter cloud and rainfall wise. Seems like they find a new stat like this every year.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Major flooding in NE Oregon as the 1-2' of snow which fell across much of the region Tuesday night, melted Wednesday night. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Umatilla River forecast to crest at Major flood stage Friday morning. 

 

[DJ Droppin 8341]

00z GFS What an UGLY run. However, if you like drier weather this is nice. Especially for the folks up in Washington and Northeast Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Forecast to crest over 6 feet above flood stage. There were some helicopter rescues this evening. 

 

758 PM PST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
The Umatilla River at Pendleton.
* until Saturday morning.
* At 7:00 PM Thursday, the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.3 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.6 feet by
tonight. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday
morning.

[Esquimalt 463]

00z GFS What an UGLY run. However, if you like drier weather this is nice. Especially for the folks up in Washington and Northeast Oregon.

Much closer with the vodka cold in the mid range.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

ICON is much cooler later next week. 

 

[Christensen87 157]

Well at least it still looks like something fun could start NEXT weekend, but at this point I’m desperate (00z GFS says snowstorm Monday the 17th). The cold just keeps getting delayed and delayed and delayed.

[Esquimalt 463]

Here comes the motherload.  Yeah baby. 

[DJ Droppin 8341]

Oh CRAP! The levee in Pendleton just FAILED!

 

Pendleton [umatilla Co, OR] NEWSPAPER reports FLOOD at 6 Feb, 8:37 PM PST -- LEVEE NEAR EAST OREGONIAN BUILDING HAS FAILED.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

BOOM

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Oh CRAP! The levee in Pendleton just FAILED!

 

Pendleton [umatilla Co, OR] NEWSPAPER reports FLOOD at 6 Feb, 8:37 PM PST -- LEVEE NEAR EAST OREGONIAN BUILDING HAS FAILED.

 

[GHweatherChris 2909]

[DJ Droppin 8341]

Dang. 00z GFS Ensembles super MEH. Temps closer to Climo. Yakima doesn't even reach -5c.... Winter is over. We(in Oregon) were due to see a lackluster Winter season for the lowlands.

[seattleweatherguy 439]

giphy.gif

Love that gif that man is from Washington now hope we can get some snow mid to late month!

[MossMan 9449]

Love that gif that man is from Washington now hope we can get some snow mid to late month!

On the 23rd!

[GHweatherChris 2909]

Love that gif that man is from Washington now hope we can get some snow mid to late month!

He grew up less than a mile from where we live. He actually walked past our house with his sister, mom and niece when he came home when his dad passed away, I didn't even bother to say hi in that moment, just let him be him and be with his family.

 

The elementary school here is trying to get him to come speak someday.

[Omegaraptor 2142]

Ensembles look wetter. They'll flip between wetter and drier several more times though.

[Deweydog 13361]

Hard to believe Valentine’s Day is a week from TOMORROW!

[Cloud 1108]

Well at least it still looks like something fun could start NEXT weekend, but at this point I’m desperate (00z GFS says snowstorm Monday the 17th). The cold just keeps getting delayed and delayed and delayed.

Spoiler: it’s gonna be delayed until next winter.

[DJ Droppin 8341]

10:00 PM Radar Update

Yikes!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13364]

Apparently PDX had a record high today. Go figure. 

[MossMan 9449]

Up to .80” on the day.

39 degrees and raining.

[Skagit Weather 419]

0.78" today, 3.16" in the last 48 hours, and 3.79" on the month. That makes this February already wetter than 7 out of the last 10. And it looks like we'll get a bit more still in the next two days.