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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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Good news is you guys had a great winter. Bad news is things are about to swing east.

 

https://youtu.be/Owe3kuOntxc

 

Great winter? I'd certainly beg to differ.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

Posted Images

November: D

December: F

January: C-

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Any winters short of average in term of snowfall is a solid F for me. And it look like SEA will stay at 0.7” this winter.

 

I’m hoping to move within next year or so to a much better area where I’m in a position to score.

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 You're posting random stuff in a PACNW thread....why?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Going to slow down bigly on here.  Looks like we got down to 46F and now up to 52F.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Any winters short of average in term of snowfall is a solid F for me. And it look like SEA will stay at 0.7” this winter.

 

I’m hoping to move within next year or so to a much better area where I’m in a position to score.

Seattle WFO is close to their average!!

Low. Solar.

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Why are you rambling in the PNW thread. Move on!

  

You're posting random stuff in a PACNW thread....why?

I’m going to play devil’s advocate and say that the thread title does not specifically mention PNW.

 

It is still in the Western US forum, though.

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00Z EPS was oddly consistent with temperatures over the next 15 days... and all below normal.

 

20200207-055407.jpg

If only it were July and that was the forecast. :wub:

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Those 5 days in January certainly saved this winter from my perspective. It was a fairly rare combination of cold and heavy snow.

Ya it was a really good event up here. Continuous light snow falling from the late evening on Jan 12 to mid day Jan 14 with temps in the mid 20’s and then heavy snow and temps in the 20’s the evening of Jan 14 through until the following morning. It was just too bad the longevity was so short and the really cold air did not penetrate south of Everett.

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Good news is you guys had a great winter. Bad news is things are about to swing east.

 

https://youtu.be/Owe3kuOntxc

More like swing north. That vortex balled pretty much everyone this winter.

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Antarctica has broken its all time temperature record. Esperanza Base recorded 18.3°C/65°F, beating the previous 17.5°C/63.5°F. Looks like it’s not only in the Northern Hemisphere.

The frequency of the -SAM in recent years is interesting. They had a SSW last Sep/Oct (unusual in the SH) and it’s caused some pretty dramatic circulation changes across the SH and IO domain. It’s possible the winter outcome this year was partially a consequence of the SH SSW perturbation to the tropical forcing/overturning cells last autumn.

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November- D-

December- C-

January- A-

February- (so far) B

We are less than 20 miles apart, within 250 feet in elevation and basically in the same relation to the sound and the foothills yet our winter has varied a ton.  

For me:

Nov. -  C (colder than normal with 15 freezes but no snow)

Dec. - D (Warmer than normal with only 5 freezes and no snow)

Jan. - C  (Warmer than normal with 10 freezes, 7.5" of fast melting snow)

Feb. - C (Nothing unusual except 4.4" of rain, 0.5" of slop and nothing exciting in sight)

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November D-

December D

January C

February C- (so far)

Our window for opportunity is still from now until mid March. I’ll grab my fork when it’s March 1st and no cold air is in sight on the models. Overall at this point I’m not expecting to see much of anything though. I think my 2” of snow will be it for this winter. Hopefully we all get surprised.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Honestly after nearly two straight months of endless precipitation, I can't wait till we get a death ridge, bringing 90s for Portland and upper 70s for here. Oh man, I cannot wait!

 

 

 

Please happen in May April, please!!!

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They said the January job numbers were so good because it was such a warm month.... Who said Global Warming was all bad?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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K%%% would have loved it here this morning.

 

Mr. Cyclone ripped roofs off houses, tore off chimneys, and blasted 2 barns to smithereens. My thoughts immediately went to the windstorm lovers on here, lol.

 

Some day I'll get my storm!

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Finally getting a near average winter precipitation-wise has scarred me SO much I'm honestly just hoping for upper 90s from St. Patrick's day to Halloween now to make up for it.

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We are less than 20 miles apart, within 250 feet in elevation and basically in the same relation to the sound and the foothills yet our winter has varied a ton.

For me:

Nov. - C (colder than normal with 15 freezes but no snow)

Dec. - D (Warmer than normal with only 5 freezes and no snow)

Jan. - C (Warmer than normal with 10 freezes, 7.5" of fast melting snow)

Feb. - C (Nothing unusual except 4.4" of rain, 0.5" of slop and nothing exciting in sight)

Yeah Your area down to Marysville was kind of screwed from both of the big snow events. The first was a Everett to Lynnwood special, the second was just north of you mostly. I was on the southern fringe of that surprise moisture that one day that gave me the good dump all day that one day. Then remained below freezing for a few days. I was very fortunate. My old location did not do well at all.
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I feel 2014-2015 was kinda underrated, not gonna lie. For a wind lover, it was great. Three separate significant windstorms. Our most significant storm since 2006 as well (to this day).

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Finally getting an average winter precipitation wise has scarred me SO much I'm honestly just hoping for upper 90s from St. Patricks day to Halloween now to make up for it.

 

 

Yeah... this is just silly and shows your warm season anxiety.

 

The last 50 days have been pretty crazy.    It has not been a winter with normal variability and dry days mixed in... at least for most of western WA.   We had a dry November and then the faucet turned on has not stopped.     To the point of reaching record-setting persistence.    January rivaled 1953 and 2006 which are benchmarks for January rain.

 

So it sort of makes sense that people are craving dry weather.    You are so dismissive of anyone complaining about rain... but the last 50 days sure warrant those complaints.   It does not get much worse.    What happened in November does not really matter in terms of perception.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... this is just silly and shows your warm season anxiety.

 

The last 50 days have been pretty crazy.    It has not been a winter with normal variability and dry days mixed in... at least for most of western WA.   We had a dry November and then the faucet turned on has not stopped.     To the point of reaching record-setting persistence.    January rivaled 1953 and 2006 which are benchmarks for January rain.

 

So it sort of makes sense that people are craving dry weather.    You are so dismissive of anyone complaining about rain... but the last 50 days sure warrant those complaints.   It does not get much worse.    What happened in November does not really matter in terms of perception.    

 

Maybe up there, but certainly not down here. Didn't seem awfully wet in the Valley.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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