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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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Indianapolis area. Averages 20" a year.

 

Right in the middle.  :)

 

Yeah, they can do ok. They've managed over 11" so far this cold season.

 

Then you have Evansville in the far south that averages like 9-10"/year (they've only seen an inch this winter), and South Bend in the north that averages close to 65"/year (25" so far this season).

Low. Solar.

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Not a bad day. High of 41 so far. Looking forward to frost tonight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Right in the middle. :)

 

Yeah, they can do ok. They've managed over 11" so far this cold season.

 

Then you have Evansville in the far south that averages like 9-10"/year (they've only seen an inch this winter), and South Bend in the north that averages close to 65"/year (25" so far this season).

South Bend is where Pete Assgieg comes from
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Yeah, when the PDO flipped negative 2006-08 through 2014, nothing changed at all with PNW weather.

 

And you using one winter as evidence is certainly not flimsy or anecdotal at all, is it?

 

You're cherry picking to mention that period but not mention the 1999-2003 -PDO period which correspond with the worst extended stretch of winter suckage on record for the PNW. Plus the 2006-2014 stretch didn't even match the beginning of the +PDO period starting in the late 70s. This stuff has been debated ad nauseum on this board.

 

And I agree, pointing to this one winter is pretty weak evidence. Published scientific papers on the impacts of low solar would be a lot more interesting.

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I lot of coolish NW flow on the GFS. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Skies are clearing in Seattle!

 

attachicon.giffirstsunin50years.png

 

 

Here too!!

 

I think this might be the first time that its not precipitating since early Tuesday morning.    There might have been a short break last night... not sure.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You're cherry picking to mention that period but not mention the 1999-2005 -PDO period which correspond with the worst extended stretch of winter suckage on record for the PNW. Plus the 2006-2014 stretch didn't even match the beginning of the +PDO period starting in the late 70s. This stuff has been debated ad nauseum on this board.

 

And I agree, pointing to this one winter is pretty weak evidence. Published scientific papers on the impacts of low solar would be a lot more interesting.

 

There was not a 1999-2005 -PDO period. 1998-2001 was deeply -ENSO and had associated -PDO (but not the same as what was seen 2006-14), but 2002-2005 was quite +PDO.

 

The state of the North Pacific and associated atmospheric regimes is only one factor. Just like solar. Lots of variables, as you might have noticed from Phil's monologues.

 

Scientific papers on the subject have been linked here before.

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Low. Solar.

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Been rainy off and on here and now getting some breaks in the clouds just in time for the sun to start setting. Looks like Olympia is getting rain to continue their streak. Only one more day to tie the record for consecutive days of rain.

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Ensemble improvement. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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There was not a 1999-2005 -PDO period. 1998-2001 was deeply -ENSO and had associated -PDO (but not the same as what was seen 2006-14), but 2002-2005 was quite +PDO.

 

The state of the North Pacific and associated atmospheric regimes is only one factor. Just like solar. Lots of variables, as you might have noticed from Phil's monologues.

 

Scientific papers on the subject have been linked here before.

 

1999-00 was my favorite winter prior to this one.

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Just got back from a golf tourney in Lebanon. Actually a very nice day until the 17th hole when a hail shower moved over. We had to wait 15 minutes to putt.

 

Mallard Creek?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Yep. Annual Par 3 tourney. Play all 18 greens but from totally different "tee boxes". Kinda fun.

 

I made 14 pars and 4 bogeys. No birdies. Great to get out though

 

Nice. Never played that course, but have driven by many times. Thinking of going down to McDowell Creek Falls down that way tomorrow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Made it up to 50F again.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just drove to Issaquah... partly sunny and it is really green for early February along I-90. I remember it being really dormant in February 2018 and last February we were buried in snow all month. Could be an early leaf out if we avoid any significant cold.

 

20200208-161344.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Skibowl today is 20s and powder. The snow rates got pretty insane from time to time. Meadows has reported another 6” of fresh snowfall since this morning. Wonderful conditions.

 

Gad you had a good time. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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February has not started springlike as others have claimed. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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41/36 so far today. Probably will have our low for the day later this evening. Does not feel springlike yet as others have stated. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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February has not started springlike as others have claimed.

 

I said it looked spring-like and it sure as hell does.

 

That bothers you? Flowers blooming and very green grass looks like spring to me. Sorry.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The Pendleton flooding was absolutely incredible. Worst flooding there since 1964. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I said it looked spring-like and it sure as hell does.

 

That bothers you? Flowers blooming and very green grass looks like spring to me. Sorry.

 

My sheep would love for the grass to be green and growing, but we are still a few months away from that. Always amazing how early spring starts up north. I heard the daffodils were blooming in January last year.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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My sheep would love for the grass to be green and growing, but we are still a few months away from that.

 

A few months? Like June when the grass just begins to grow? ;)

 

Too bad your sheep are not up here. The grass is definitely VERY green and even growing... particularly in North Bend and Issaquah. Like there is absolutely no doubt at at all that its growing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes Andrew... it starts way early when it never goes below freezing and it's raining every day. It's very green here. Anyone up here can verify. Ask Chris for pics from the golf course. Phil said it looked like summer.

 

This seems obvious. Hard to believe you are even challenging it.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A few months? Like June when the grass just begins to grow? ;)

 

Too bad your sheep are not up here. The grass is definitely VERY green and even growing... particularly in North Bend and Issaquah. Like there is absolutely no doubt at at all that its growing.

 

Sounds like some kind of paradise. Not really growing much even in the Willamette Valley. 

 

March is the peak of the dormant season here. By late April things will begin to grow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Yes Andrew... it starts way early when it never goes below freezing and it's raining every day. It's very green here. Anyone up here can verify. Ask Chris for pics from the golf course. Phil said it looked like summer.

 

This seems obvious. Hard to believe you are even challenging it.

 

I guess we, and even Salem, had a low in the mid-20s earlier this week. So maybe that explains it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I guess we, and even Salem, had a low in the mid-20s earlier this week. So maybe that explains it.

 

No idea... but I can't believe the grass is not lush green down there. The grass is lush green everywhere up here. Even in my area.

 

Here is another pic from Issaquah... you can see some dormant grass being covered by new growth.

 

20200208-173027.jpg

 

Cherry trees were in bloom in Issaquah as well.

 

Not sure why this has to be frickin debate every year. It's been 3 years since February has been this green up here.

 

I was making an observation of something that made me feel better after 50 straight days of rain. My wife said the same thing. The sun was peaking out... the grass was very green... and there were flowers in bloom. It felt good. It felt hopeful. It was nice.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And where in the PNW is March the peak of dormancy? Trees are usually starting to leaf out by late March. Are you just trolling me? WTF

 

 

I hate this side of Andrew.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was trimming hedges today. Their lawn was definitely growing. Close to needing a mow. And the early daffodils are showing buds. And we had close to 2ft of snow a few weeks ago. Either Andrew is trolling or his elevation makes that much difference.

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Everything is starting to pop here, trees/shrubs budding, grass is growing, etc. will probably take the snow plow off the mower and put the mower deck back on and mow if we stay dry for a few days after I get back from vacation. Christmas lights are coming down tomorrow. Thinking about getting my boat to the mechanic early before the spring push to see if I can get another year or two out of it or if it needs to be retired.

Spring is coming!

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I was trimming hedges today. Their lawn was definitely growing. Close to needing a mow. And the early daffodils are showing buds. And we had close to 2ft of snow a few weeks ago. Either Andrew is trolling or his elevation makes that much difference.

 

Its the elevation. By March things will be greening up and growing in the valley. Up here the green up will begin around the beginning of April, by the end of April things explode in greenery. It happens very late here because of the elevation, but when it does it only takes a couple of weeks to almost catch up with the valley. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Gardening is very tough here because of the short growing season. Lows in the mid-20s in early May are not uncommon and we've had lows in the upper 20s around May 20th since I have lived here, not exactly a cold stretch of springs. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Its the elevation. By March things will be greening up and growing in the valley. Up here the green up will begin around the beginning of April, by the end of April things explode in greenery. It happens very late here because of the elevation, but when it does it only takes a couple of weeks to almost catch up with the valley.

But somehow Salem reaches peak dormancy in March and the Willamette Valley is a brown wasteland right now and it will get more dormant in March.

 

Sure.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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But somehow Salem reaches peak dormancy in March and the Willamette Valley is a brown wasteland right now and it will get more dormant in March.

 

Sure.

 

I was obviously talking about where I live. It is still dormant in the valley, I will post a pic Monday of the cottonwoods along the river.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sounds like some kind of paradise. Not really growing much even in the Willamette Valley. 

 

March is the peak of the dormant season here. By late April things will begin to grow. 

 

I think you have a skewed idea of what dormant is. Truly dormant is when the grass is completely brown and dead looking and I've never seen the WV look like that in all my winters there. Of course growth slows there but it doesn't turn completely brown like it does here in October.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 22.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I think you have a skewed idea of what dormant is. Truly dormant is when the grass is completely brown and dead looking and I've never seen the WV look like that in all my winters there. Of course growth slows there but it doesn't turn completely brown like it does here in October.

 

Yes, just not growing is what I mean. Lawns stay green here. I was in Oklahoma and Colorado last week so I know what true dormancy looks like this time of year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I was obviously talking about where I live. It is still dormant in the valley, I will post a pic Monday of the cottonwoods along the river.

You were mocking my observation. Magical land up north.

 

And I am sure the cottonwoods are dormant. And also sure there is lots of green grass in Salem.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You were mocking my observation. Magical land up north.

 

And I am sure the cottonwoods are dormant. And also sure there is lots of green grass in Salem.

 

I will take pictures of the lawns on Monday and we can all vote.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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