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February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


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I will take pictures of the lawns on Monday and we can all vote.

Seems like the grass is very green in the Portland area.

 

It think it was Jake who mowed already. I am sure it's not different than the Seattle area. Maybe even greener.

 

Sounds like Salem is in a brown bubble on it's own.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

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i’m going to disagree with you ...though not going full on exaggeration mode like Tim.

as far as Willamette Valley: lawns are active. just look around at the muddy tire marks in lawns. i mowed yesterday though it’s been some years since it’s been this early. hazelnut orchards are full on catkins. willows are pushing growth. daffodils beginning to bloom.

it’ll be interesting to see if the Yoshino cherry trees at the Capitol bloom earlier than last year. my thought is 7-10 days earlier.

I’m not sure what you mean by peak dormant season either ...my though would be now.

I did not exaggerate anything.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I did not exaggerate anything.

 

It is your middle name. You have also never been wrong. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Hey guys, did you know the last time this area had a drought, it was 1936.

 

Cold year. 

 

Speaking of cold. Down to 34.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It is your middle name. You have also never been wrong.

 

I did not exaggerate anything... just mentioned it felt nice to see the sun and green and flowers. It sure did.

 

You are a gem today. Some days you are so negative and combative and other days you are pleasant and conversant.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I did not exaggerate anything... just mentioned it felt nice to see the sun and green and flowers. It sure did.

 

You are a gem today. Bipolar.

 

Hey Tim, how about we refrain from personal insults and making light of mental illness. OK?

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Hey guys, did you know the last time this area had a drought, it was 1936.

It's rare in western WA... but 2015 qualified

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hey Tim, how about we refrain from personal insults and making light of mental illness. OK?

I changed my post... you quoted me too fast. But you are a completely different person from day to day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like Alaska will stay chilly.  

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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gfs_T850a_ak_40.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Ensembles looking chilly tonight 

 

Thy continue to slowly cool. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Completely dormant here in central Oregon. No green grass and there sure isn’t bulbs coming up and blooming. I must not be in the pnw.

 

 

Very different story on that side of the mountains.    And at that elevation of course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Almost 58" of rain here since 10/1/2019.

 

 

You average about 900 inches a year right?    Dry year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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post-29-0-62615100-1581218327.jpg

 

 

Might be even greener there than here.   Pretty close though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was trimming hedges today. Their lawn was definitely growing. Close to needing a mow. And the early daffodils are showing buds. And we had close to 2ft of snow a few weeks ago. Either Andrew is trolling or his elevation makes that much difference.

 

Planning to start spring yard work tomorrow.    Have to cut back lots of things.   Can we still cut back fruit trees or is it too late and might harm them?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another perfect afternoon/evening on the golf course!!

 

And it was very green and lush.

 

 

Do you have a membership?   You play all the time.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Grass is mostly emerald green around here.

 

And probably growing.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The evidence for it mattering much always seemed flimsy at best and quite anecdotal to me. Just another thing to latch onto for people who don't want to come to grips with the fact that we live in a warming climate, kind of like the PDO was for a while.

No comment on the PDO, but there are multiple solar/climate system teleconnections. Just because they’re not simple, linear, 1-to-1 relationships doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

 

I can regurgitate this reality a million times but apparently nobody gives a d*mn, so whatever.

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Planning to start spring yard work tomorrow. Have to cut back lots of things. Can we still cut back fruit trees or is it too late and might harm them?

Sure. It’s a good time. I haven’t even started fruit tree pruning yet. Don’t forget your dormant spray.
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Do you have a membership? You play all the time.

Just since we joined last October we have played enough that it has already made up for the annual dues, now it is all free!!

 

Even with all the rain we have played alot.

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I forget who predicted the warmest winter in U.S. history, but clearly they deserve MAJOR kudos.

 

Then again, the way things look now that probably won't hold. :(

Ironically enough, the OFA did forecast a blowtorch winter around here. I think they were the only ones who did.

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gfs_T850a_ak_40.png

 

Vortex is gonna get stuck there like it did in Greenland for 6 years.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 23 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Hey Tim, how about we refrain from personal insults and making light of mental illness. OK?

 

Just for clarification... I meant that some days you are very conversant and nice and other days you are so down and contrarian.  I said that this afternoon made me feel good after so many dark days... and you jumped all over my post saying it was not spring-like and does not look like spring and everything is dormant and growing grass is  "few months away".    Silly stuff.   

 

And people seemingly mock me for different mental illnesses all the time.    Seems to be completely fair game.    But I did not use that term in my post in a psychiatric way... just meant you can be so opposite on different days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Planning to start spring yard work tomorrow. Have to cut back lots of things. Can we still cut back fruit trees or is it too late and might harm them?

Perfect time for the fruit trees! President’s day was always my marker timeframe to do that.
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Looks like this will end up as one of the coldest winters of the past 30 years for much of Alaska. For Fairbanks, the only real competition will probably be 1998-99 and 2010-11.

 

Which notably, were both significant Ninas, unlike this winter.

If +ENSO can take root for real this summer then it could really go the 2009 route with the current warm pool structure and flagging +PMM.

 

If the flip to La Niña is this year, then I’m f**ked. Most culminating ERWs are forced by breaking extratropical waves anyway, and if we’re not careful this could end up back in 2008-12 territory real quick.

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Just for clarification... I meant that some days you are very conversant and nice and other days you are so down and contrarian. I said that this afternoon made me feel good after so many dark days... and you jumped all over my post saying it was not spring-like and does not look like spring and everything is dormant and growing grass is "few months away". Silly stuff.

 

And people seemingly mock me for different mental illnesses all the time. Seems to be completely fair game. But I did not use that term in my post in a psychiatric way... just meant you can be so opposite on different days.

In all honesty, you really do tend to take things more personally and to another level than anyone else on this forum.

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If +ENSO can take root for real this summer then it could really go the 2009 route with the current warm pool structure and flagging +PMM.

 

If the flip to La Niña is this year, then I’m f**ked. Most culminating ERWs are forced by breaking extratropical waves anyway, and if we’re not careful this could end up back in 2008-12 territory real quick.

 

If we are not careful?  We need to work on that.     :lol:

 

Lets be very careful then... and go the 2009 route.  

 

Although you really cannot beat the summer of 2012 here.   It was almost totally dry from late June through mid October... and seemingly always sunny but never hot.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There was not a 1999-2005 -PDO period. 1998-2001 was deeply -ENSO and had associated -PDO (but not the same as what was seen 2006-14), but 2002-2005 was quite +PDO.

 

The state of the North Pacific and associated atmospheric regimes is only one factor. Just like solar. Lots of variables, as you might have noticed from Phil's monologues.

 

Scientific papers on the subject have been linked here before.

You might consider the PDO an “echo” of low frequency atmospheric circulation modes triggered by the structure of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool/Hadley-Walker system there. And said warm pool seems to be connected to the amplitude and derivative solar cycle and feeds back w/ the state dependent annular mode/z-cell structure.

 

Both ENSO and extra tropical variability originate or back resonate to/from/with the West-Pacific/IO heat engine, as well. Which might explain there’s a bi-modal ENSO/Solar correlation after solar max/min..the warm pool would be the middle-man conduit through which said variability occurs.

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In all honesty, you really do tend to take things more personally and to another level than anyone else on this forum.

 

I actually let most of the personal stuff slide... Matt says I am thick-skinned.   And thick-headed.    ^_^

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You’ll get to experience real thunderstorms too.

 

 

That will be the biggest difference there for him.   The humidity and thunderstorms all summer.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just since we joined last October we have played enough that it has already made up for the annual dues, now it is all free!!

 

Even with all the rain we have played alot.

 

 

Does your wife join you all the time?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just for clarification... I meant that some days you are very conversant and nice and other days you are so down and contrarian.  I said that this afternoon made me feel good after so many dark days... and you jumped all over my post saying it was not spring-like and does not look like spring and everything is dormant and growing grass is  "few months away".    Silly stuff.   

 

And people seemingly mock me for different mental illnesses all the time.    Seems to be completely fair game.    But I did not use that term in my post in a psychiatric way... just meant you can be so opposite on different days.

 

Ye

 

Just for clarification... I meant that some days you are very conversant and nice and other days you are so down and contrarian.  I said that this afternoon made me feel good after so many dark days... and you jumped all over my post saying it was not spring-like and does not look like spring and everything is dormant and growing grass is  "few months away".    Silly stuff.   

 

And people seemingly mock me for different mental illnesses all the time.    Seems to be completely fair game.    But I did not use that term in my post in a psychiatric way... just meant you can be so opposite on different days.

 

I understand what you are saying. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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