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Major Stratospheric Warming In Progress


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I thought I would do a post that highlights this amazing graphic I have had for years that shows the progression of the NHEM stratospheric temperature anomalies.  Right now we have a major event in progress over Eastern Asia.  Supposedly this is often a precursor to major cold waves in the Western US.  It is quite possible this is part of the reason the models are so bullish on that right now.  Last winter we had a similar SSW before the big February cold wave.

 

temp10anim.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I thought Phil said no SSW?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I thought Phil said no SSW?

 

I haven't heard that.  At this point I think that explosion over the Asia is going to continue a while longer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I thought Phil said no SSW?

I’m not sure if that actually qualifies as a major SSW. Certainly not like what we saw last year. It is a good disruption of the PV, and knocks it off the pole for a bit but it has almost fully recovered by day 8/9.
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I’m not sure if that actually qualifies as a major SSW. Certainly not like what we saw last year. It is a good disruption of the PV, and knocks it off the pole for a bit but it has almost fully recovered by day 8/9.

 

It's not done yet.  I'm referring to the new warming over Asia.  It is hard the discern the new event from the old one, because of the timing of the loop.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength.

 

Just an ugly situation up there this winter.

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Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 response that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength.

Just an ugly situation up there this winter.

well if there is any good news it's that things can only go up next winter can not get much worse then this winter so odds on that alone would seem to faver a better out come unless the Earth is really in some insane state that has no hope of changing I got to suspect 2020-2021 sees a completey different pattern.
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For reference, 10mb zonal wind @ 60N.

 

That pattern flip to more zonal flow/flat Aleutian ridging in December pretty much torpedoed the early season wave driving and allowed for full TPV/SPV coupling.

 

If that hadn’t happened, this winter may have turned out much differently in the PNW (drier and much colder).

 

ReZ2WwK.jpg

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Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 response that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength.

 

Just an ugly situation up there this winter.

 

 

So the title of this topic is incorrect? 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Call me a simpleton. It always gets really warm before it gets really cold. 06Z GFS did show a cold wave. Back in the 70s we had, "Cold wave warnings." Last night run could meet the criteria of temperatures dropping 40f in 12 hrs. We will see.

 

06Z-20200207_GFSUS_sfc_temp-207-258-10-100.gif

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Call me a simpleton. It always gets really warm before it gets really cold. 06Z GFS did show a cold wave. Back in the 70s we had, "Cold wave warnings." Last night run could meet the criteria of temperatures dropping 40f in 12 hrs. We will see.

 

 

You’re a simpleton.

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Polar vortex has been stronger than normal since early in the winter. Near record strength at times. Nearly any hints of weakening in the models has ended up failing. Forecast shows it strengthens further the next 2 weeks.

 

Thanks.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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