snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I thought I would do a post that highlights this amazing graphic I have had for years that shows the progression of the NHEM stratospheric temperature anomalies. Right now we have a major event in progress over Eastern Asia. Supposedly this is often a precursor to major cold waves in the Western US. It is quite possible this is part of the reason the models are so bullish on that right now. Last winter we had a similar SSW before the big February cold wave. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I thought Phil said no SSW? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I thought Phil said no SSW?Phil's rebuttal is upcoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I thought Phil said no SSW? I haven't heard that. At this point I think that explosion over the Asia is going to continue a while longer. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I thought Phil said no SSW?I’m not sure if that actually qualifies as a major SSW. Certainly not like what we saw last year. It is a good disruption of the PV, and knocks it off the pole for a bit but it has almost fully recovered by day 8/9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I’m not sure if that actually qualifies as a major SSW. Certainly not like what we saw last year. It is a good disruption of the PV, and knocks it off the pole for a bit but it has almost fully recovered by day 8/9. It's not done yet. I'm referring to the new warming over Asia. It is hard the discern the new event from the old one, because of the timing of the loop. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 It's not done yet. I'm referring to the new warming over Asia. It is hard the discern the new event from the old one, because of the timing of the loop.PV looks pretty healthy again after day 7/8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 5FA7BE01-2816-4DD9-9214-52BBA1164D43.png This doesnt look good for us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 This doesnt look good for us?That’s at 10mb. Way up there. Doesn’t really correspond to what happens at the surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 There’s really no difference between minors and majors. It’s all still baseball. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength. Just an ugly situation up there this winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 response that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength.Just an ugly situation up there this winter. well if there is any good news it's that things can only go up next winter can not get much worse then this winter so odds on that alone would seem to faver a better out come unless the Earth is really in some insane state that has no hope of changing I got to suspect 2020-2021 sees a completey different pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 response that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength. Just an ugly situation up there this winter.Winter over ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 For reference, 10mb zonal wind @ 60N. That pattern flip to more zonal flow/flat Aleutian ridging in December pretty much torpedoed the early season wave driving and allowed for full TPV/SPV coupling. If that hadn’t happened, this winter may have turned out much differently in the PNW (drier and much colder). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 response that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength. Just an ugly situation up there this winter. So the title of this topic is incorrect? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 So the title of this topic is incorrect?Unfortunately. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Call me a simpleton. It always gets really warm before it gets really cold. 06Z GFS did show a cold wave. Back in the 70s we had, "Cold wave warnings." Last night run could meet the criteria of temperatures dropping 40f in 12 hrs. We will see. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Looking at 12z run, one thing is for sure. Cold air in the wake of stratuspheric warm air plum. Every forum, it would seem, needs a stratuspheric guy.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Call me a simpleton. It always gets really warm before it gets really cold. 06Z GFS did show a cold wave. Back in the 70s we had, "Cold wave warnings." Last night run could meet the criteria of temperatures dropping 40f in 12 hrs. We will see. You’re a simpleton. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 70A0521B-CD9E-4D1E-81D3-881179B5358E.jpeg What does that mean? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 What does that mean?Polar vortex has been stronger than normal since early in the winter. Near record strength at times. Nearly any hints of weakening in the models has ended up failing. Forecast shows it strengthens further the next 2 weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Polar vortex has been stronger than normal since early in the winter. Near record strength at times. Nearly any hints of weakening in the models has ended up failing. Forecast shows it strengthens further the next 2 weeks. Thanks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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