ENSO 2023

[OKwx2k4]

If there's still an old thread, after 3 Niña years in a row; out with the old, in with the new. 

Today vs June 2009 (top analog)

The images are obviously from different sources, but in our hemisphere, hard to shake the similarities.

Discuss and enjoy!

[Tom]

I am really hoping that the CFSv2 is right about the Modook Nino for the Autumn/early Winter...it may be running a bit to hot, or rather, warm...but, nonetheless, the idea of a central-based Nino would be interesting scenario for the U.S. winter next year.  Gotta get past this summer and see the evolution.  

Oh, I'd also be stoked to see the NE PAC warm and hug the coastline in NW NAMER...we haven't had this type of patter for 3 or more years from all the Nina's and a dominant N PAC flow.  Maybe nature is shaking things up this year??? 

 

Autumn....

 

Early Winter...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Yep. Keep that cold tongue in the east (straight north of 1.2) and north of the ENSO region all the way up to Baja California and i'll need a snowmobile for a month at least. Subsurface backs this and atmosphere agrees as well. All the heat is stacked on the other side of the globe. 

I LOVE this. I've been trying not to say the winter word here, but...well, oops. Haha. 

Tom, I blame you. You started it! Lol. 

I'm excited for the summer AND the winter to come. 

My honest thoughts are actually that the CFS has the Niño too far east even there. May have one centered very close to 180 line with no Pacific-induced warm masses of air flooding us. 

I was early last winter. This one is going to be the big one. I scored avg snow last season with really not ever the best conditions to do it in. Won't be that way this year, in my opinion.

[OKwx2k4]

Also at this...

Tom wrote: "Oh, I'd also be stoked to see the NE PAC warm and hug the coastline in NW NAMER...we haven't had this type of patter for 3 or more years from all the Nina's and a dominant N PAC flow.  Maybe nature is shaking things up this year???"

can you say "near permanent Aleutian Low"? Yes please! I'm going to get excited if I don't stop. Lol. That's a southern branch monsters setup if I ever saw it with a delivery path right through my house. All the fuel storms need on the Pac with a reserve in the GzoM. Awesome stuff!!

Alsi, when the oceans warm in a certain pattern, it causes a warm ocean/cold continents pattern or positive TNH pattern. May last two decades, may last two years, but I'll put everything I have on the belief that we witnessed a dual-hemispheric climate shift. 

[Andie]

On 5/23/2023 at 9:15 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

If there's still an old thread, after 3 Niña years in a row; out with the old, in with the new. 

Today vs June 2009 (top analog)

The images are obviously from different sources, but in our hemisphere, hard to shake the similarities.

Discuss and enjoy!

I remember that winter.

[OKwx2k4]

A little more info....

We are very nearly at the tri-monthly threshold to make it official.

Although heat is surfacing in the east at a rapid rate, it has no depth to supply it...(last image). Lastly, looky at this forecast....(next image). Sorry they're out of order. They didn't post correctly.

[Iceresistance]

The SOI index has been crazy lately, 16 days streak of negative daily values

[gimmesnow]

Oh man I hope next winter is good. I ended my snowboard season in Lutsen with a high level snowboard instructor who taught me so much stuff, only for everything to be put away for the season.

[OKwx2k4]

On 5/27/2023 at 10:11 AM, gimmesnow said:

Oh man I hope next winter is good. I ended my snowboard season in Lutsen with a high level snowboard instructor who taught me so much stuff, only for everything to be put away for the season.

If enso peaks by October, you will very likely get your wish.

[Black Hole]

What's the typical El Nino effect for my part of the world, especially for winter? 

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

What's the typical El Nino effect for my part of the world, especially for winter? 

In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. In extreme + Nino episodes with a huge positive pdo signature, it's like the tropics invaded us. Pacific air flooding us for days. In a weaker, more moderate or central Pacific Niño (Modoki), the southern branch can't continually pull hot air off and we see a year like 2009-10 happen. Extreme or very weak Nino episodes are pretty much in the equal chances category. N.Pac ocean temps are a huge part of this equation as well. That's one that has been debated since the great warm pool of 2013-14 and part of '15, known as "the blob" for a time. 

[Tom]

14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. In extreme + Nino episodes with a huge positive pdo signature, it's like the tropics invaded us. Pacific air flooding us for days. In a weaker, more moderate or central Pacific Niño (Modoki), the southern branch can't continually pull hot air off and we see a year like 2009-10 happen. Extreme or very weak Nino episodes are pretty much in the equal chances category. N.Pac ocean temps are a huge part of this equation as well. That's one that has been debated since the great warm pool of 2013-14 and part of '15, known as "the blob" for a time. 

Gosh, if that "Split Flow" in the NE PAC can really become a dominant jet stream pattern of next autumn's LRC...Look out below!  

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Gosh, if that "Split Flow" in the NE PAC can really become a dominant jet stream pattern of next autumn's LRC...Look out below!  

100 percent correct.

[Black Hole]

21 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. In extreme + Nino episodes with a huge positive pdo signature, it's like the tropics invaded us. Pacific air flooding us for days. In a weaker, more moderate or central Pacific Niño (Modoki), the southern branch can't continually pull hot air off and we see a year like 2009-10 happen. Extreme or very weak Nino episodes are pretty much in the equal chances category. N.Pac ocean temps are a huge part of this equation as well. That's one that has been debated since the great warm pool of 2013-14 and part of '15, known as "the blob" for a time. 

Well I am certainly hopeful we get a version that sends the cool air south into the area. Just didn't get enough of that last winter. Thanks for the insights. 

[Black Hole]

Some snow stats for Tulsa in El Nino's. It looks like Modoki El Nino's are in fact pretty good here as OKwx2k4 noted. The signal is more mixed for strong or east based El Ninos. Plenty of reason for optimism going forward as most El Ninos are more Modoki than east based/strong. 

[Andie]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:55 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. 

Correct me, but I believe it was 2009 we had a serious Nino winter. Loads of snow. 
It will be interesting to see how this year stacks up.  So far a relatively cool early summer.  We’re seriously enjoying it. We’re getting enough rain so everything is green and lush.  
More please. 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Some snow stats for Tulsa in El Nino's. It looks like Modoki El Nino's are in fact pretty good here as OKwx2k4 noted. The signal is more mixed for strong or east based El Ninos. Plenty of reason for optimism going forward as most El Ninos are more Modoki than east based/strong. 

Its a very marked pattern difference in the two. My theory is that in Modoki, the southern branch has less heat but retains the moisture load allowing for slower moving large storms and more precip in our area. The last Modoki was in 2009-10, I think. By the time a major Niño or East-based Niños hotbox Pacific influence on our atmosphere wanes, if the Pacific is in agreeing pdo phase, it's usually very late into the winter before we see snowfall.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Correct me, but I believe it was 2009 we had a serious Nino winter. Loads of snow. 
It will be interesting to see how this year stacks up.  So far a relatively cool early summer.  We’re seriously enjoying it. We’re getting enough rain so everything is green and lush.  
More please. 

Yeah. 2009-10 was the prettiest winter in a long time for many people. That whole late summer, autumn and winter were awesome weather it seemed like.

[Andie]

We may be off on a similar foot this year.   Dare I say, the snow word this year?

[Black Hole]

50 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its a very marked pattern difference in the two. My theory is that in Modoki, the southern branch has less heat but retains the moisture load allowing for slower moving large storms and more precip in our area. The last Modoki was in 2009-10, I think. By the time a major Niño or East-based Niños hotbox Pacific influence on our atmosphere wanes, if the Pacific is in agreeing pdo phase, it's usually very late into the winter before we see snowfall.

I suppose like everything else around here, it's a delicate balance. If that southern jet is modified in the wrong way we just get flooded with Pacific air it seems.

What about a general ice storm climatology? That's a hard thing to look up for some reason. Does it change during ninos? 

[Andie]

I’m further south so it’s definitely a wait and see. But check your area winter 08-09. DFW area got a boatload of snow.  

[OKwx2k4]

On 6/5/2023 at 9:30 PM, Black Hole said:

I suppose like everything else around here, it's a delicate balance. If that southern jet is modified in the wrong way we just get flooded with Pacific air it seems.

What about a general ice storm climatology? That's a hard thing to look up for some reason. Does it change during ninos? 

Been my experience that ice events either precede or follow Niños. Ice storms here in 1999, 2000 and 2001, then January 2009 are pretty major ones from memory. 

(My opinion...)They are hard to look up because their effects, if not in a large city, are recounted, documented by locals who went through them but not so much by the areas around them. 

There's a YouTube video of NWA and Northeast Oklahoma and my hometown in Jsnuary 2009s (winter 2008-09) ice storm. Its pretty wild stuff. It was scary. 

I remember reading an ice storm study that looked at tree rings to determine which years saw ice events and their effects. Other than that, i don't know of much to find on the topic.

[OKwx2k4]

A quick look at the El Niño/La Niña Intensities and years would lead me to believe that negative/neutral or weak Niña episodes actually produce more icing events. This is likely due to the cold air source location in La Niña winters and the cold layer of our atmosphere being more shallow or less dense. La Niña doesn't often trigger an upstream blocking episode to contain the deep cold over our continent or Canada. I think this is right. May check me on it. I know 2010 and 11s blocking episodes were anomalous. Those were post-Nino, but in a La Niña that made the whole Pacific cold, if i recall it rightly.

 

[Black Hole]

Thanks for the comments and it sounds reasonable enough of a theory. I don't mind mild icy events but I don't want to see anything too big. Hopefully we can just get some good snow this year. 

[Phil]

On 6/9/2023 at 6:13 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

A quick look at the El Niño/La Niña Intensities and years would lead me to believe that negative/neutral or weak Niña episodes actually produce more icing events. This is likely due to the cold air source location in La Niña winters and the cold layer of our atmosphere being more shallow or less dense. La Niña doesn't often trigger an upstream blocking episode to contain the deep cold over our continent or Canada. I think this is right. May check me on it. I know 2010 and 11s blocking episodes were anomalous. Those were post-Nino, but in a La Niña that made the whole Pacific cold, if i recall it rightly.

 

That’s why El Niño is generally better for snow here. Those cold, blocky La Niña patterns drive that northern stream down into the Plains, phasing/deepening cyclones too early, such that they cut north into the Great Lakes/Midwest.

Need a clean STJ for a better shot at a coastal/nor’easter track. Hoping for more of those this winter.  

[Phil]

On 6/5/2023 at 8:14 PM, Black Hole said:

Some snow stats for Tulsa in El Nino's. It looks like Modoki El Nino's are in fact pretty good here as OKwx2k4 noted. The signal is more mixed for strong or east based El Ninos. Plenty of reason for optimism going forward as most El Ninos are more Modoki than east based/strong. 

Definitely not a Modoki Niño this year. Strong canonical/EPAC niños can be boom/bust out here as well.

[Clinton]

Good write up from the KSHB weather team i n KC on what El Nino may mean going forward.

"During the summer of developing El Niño events, temperatures across the Midwest were slightly cooler than normal. This trend was strongest when Oceanic Niño Index values were already nearing a moderate El Niño during the summer months," according to a recent study by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

This is a standard we are currently approaching and is most likely why the CPC has Kansas City in the "equal chances" zone for summer temperatures being above or below average.

So let's look a little deeper. When you compare current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to the last strong El Niño event, there are certainly some big similarities.

Here's a look at the current SSTs. See the big red streak coming off western South America, that's El Niño.

KSHB

It's been 7-8 years since we've seen a big El Niño set up, the last time being 2015-2016.

So let's take a look back at the SSTs from June that year. Check it out. What an eerily similar map!

KSHB

So what does this tell us?

El Niño is here and most likely will be here for the winter. But the strength of it and its peak is still unknown, so don't panic or buy into the hype (yet!)

You really have to wait until September-October to understand what this will mean for KC and our upcoming winter. As for this summer, while a moderately developing El Niño has been associated with cooler temperatures, our 10-day isn't following that trend.

The first day of summer is June 21, and we are forecasting an above-average start to the season.

KSHB

The pattern that is looking to set up next week could leave us void of rain chances while simultaneously heating things up.

When we see this type of pattern set up, our only hope is for "ridge riders"... what I like to call storms that roll along the edge of high pressure. To get this, we need an active flow to be impacting the Rockies and those storms to feed into Kansas, plus have the set up to nudge them toward Kansas City.

Not the best hope for us, but this will certainly be something we will watch for

[OKwx2k4]

Great write-up there. 

 

The US being surrounded by cold water this year and in the Baja region are majorly different, along with the orientation of the warming in the N.Pac. These are and will be important factors going forward. Anomalous and massive warm pooling in the NE Pac is also absent. These point to a cooler long-term and an upcoming reversal of our "heat over the heartland" setup.

The Atlantic is in full Niño suppression mode, too. Doesn't matter how much heat you're working with in a suppressed/high shear environment, you can't make a hurricane that way.

Phil pointed out some excellent stuff also. Very excellent. 

Only disagreement i have (and absolutely could be wrong) is that in comparing 2009 to this one, we didn't see a Modoki style setup at first. 1.2 wasn't as warm though and that may be the difference-maker. 

[OKwx2k4]

Here's a side-by-side of 2009 and today that are more comparable than the two i posted in a previous post.

[Andie]

We’re at 83*  Humidity is 79, ugh.

Dewpoint 72. 

Even the A/C can’t catch up with it.  Storms missed FtWorth but east of Dallas was hit with baseball sized hail.  Talk about gratitude.  This year the turbulent moisture has been east Dallas and further east.  

Things are changing out in the Pacific.  We can feel it in Texas. Unusual spring and early summer. You don’t have to be a met to know Nino is here.    

Edit 6/17 

In watching this June pattern I could sense the flip of our weather this week in the air.  Didn’t have to see a map or know the temp.  

The air literally changed.  It smelled like “old air”.  
Like it needed to go through a filter.  Just thought that odd.

 

[tStacsh]

On 6/14/2023 at 9:02 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Great write-up there. 

 

The US being surrounded by cold water this year and in the Baja region are majorly different, along with the orientation of the warming in the N.Pac. These are and will be important factors going forward. Anomalous and massive warm pooling in the NE Pac is also absent. These point to a cooler long-term and an upcoming reversal of our "heat over the heartland" setup.

The Atlantic is in full Niño suppression mode, too. Doesn't matter how much heat you're working with in a suppressed/high shear environment, you can't make a hurricane that way.

Phil pointed out some excellent stuff also. Very excellent. 

Only disagreement i have (and absolutely could be wrong) is that in comparing 2009 to this one, we didn't see a Modoki style setup at first. 1.2 wasn't as warm though and that may be the difference-maker. 

And just like that, a tropical system has formed and will likely become a weak hurricane.  No threat to US atm though.  

[OKwx2k4]

On 6/19/2023 at 9:57 AM, tStacsh said:

And just like that, a tropical system has formed and will likely become a weak hurricane.  No threat to US atm though.  

Yeah. It did, for a bit, but just the same, the Atlantic is going to go right back to sleep for what looks like the foreseeable future. It's still in suppress/shear mode.

[Black Hole]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-qbo-polar-vortex-el-nino-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

This was a lengthy but interesting read. Looks like -QBO to go with the strong nino this year. 

[Andie]

2 more days at 102 and 100 and we’re back in business in the 90’s with 20% chance of rain! 

[Black Hole]

This looks good to me! Probably a good snow pattern for many in the south. 

[OKwx2k4]

If that happens, it'll be a legendary January here.

[OKwx2k4]

On 6/28/2023 at 7:29 PM, Black Hole said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-qbo-polar-vortex-el-nino-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

This was a lengthy but interesting read. Looks like -QBO to go with the strong nino this year. 

That's probably one of the best teaching write-ups on what makes a winter over the CONUS a top-ten. What is compelling is that it's actually been over 7 years since we've had a beneficial QBO, due to those two almost double positive cycles. I still don't know of a lot of conclusions as to why the cycle failed twice, but maybe they'll figure it out one day. I personally believe it is solar/geomagnetically related, but not sure. 

[Timmy Supercell]

On 7/5/2023 at 9:26 AM, Black Hole said:

This looks good to me! Probably a good snow pattern for many in the south. 

Maybe one decent month, between two warmer ones. That's what '21-'22 was like in the Ohio Valley. 

[Tom]

On this gorgeous summer morning, some "cool" thoughts as I present to you the Good Ol' CFSv2 that is teasing the U.S. for this upcoming Winter season.  The last 15 runs...maybe the high lat blocking this summer is saying something as we near the colder months ahead.  Nature has her way of hinting at such things.

 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

On this gorgeous summer morning, some "cool" thoughts as I present to you the Good Ol' CFSv2 that is teasing the U.S. for this upcoming Winter season.  The last 15 runs...maybe the high lat blocking this summer is saying something as we near the colder months ahead.  Nature has her way of hinting at such things.

 

It seems like the question for el nino is usually whether we can get that split flow along the west coast or not. You need a speed bump for the jet to go around to get the cold in here of course, and that seems more likely with weak to moderate events rather than strong ones. This may be right on the edge, but I remain hopeful. 

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It seems like the question for el nino is usually whether we can get that split flow along the west coast or not. You need a speed bump for the jet to go around to get the cold in here of course, and that seems more likely with weak to moderate events rather than strong ones. This may be right on the edge, but I remain hopeful. 

Something I have paid attn to over the years, is how the weather pattern transpires in and around warm/cold pools.  It's only mid summer and a lot can change, but heading into the Fall months, if this warm pool knifing into the NE PAC along with colder waters hugging the west coast of the U.S. remains...this will create a favorable Split Flow pattern.  My friends in So Cal have been complaining on how bad the "June Gloom" has been and how cold the past 8 months were if you live near the ocean.  The onshore flow has been continuous and that bodes well during the winter months as it will drive the STJ and troughs into So Cal/4 corners.

 

[Hoosier]

I think we're going to see some really juiced systems this winter. This winter should have its moments, but I think it's always wise to keep expectations in check when you're staring down the barrel of a Nino of this expected magnitude. For the Lakes/Midwest specifically, don't expect to get through winter without some substantial thaws.  

To the point from above about juiced systems, I expect that to include our region too.  Ninos can be dry around the Lakes/Midwest, but that dry signal sort of fades in stronger Ninos.  So I'd be skeptical of any forecasts that have a dry winter across the region. 

[Tom]

Since we don't have an Autumn/Winter Outlook yet (should prob create one soon or someone else can do so)....here is Accuweather's take for Autumn...

 

[Andie]

Despite being on the edge of cooler, it’s most welcome.  Especially if it brings rain. 

[Black Hole]

Here are a bunch of slides I made for a project, but thought I would share with you all too. They aren't meant to look good, just be interesting and I didn't bother to trim the comments on the slides. Some of them mention OK but obviously its applicable to all of us. For starters Feb-March height anomalies.

It's possible you might bin these differently, but here is what I included for strong el nino. You can tell that other than 2015-16 it's pretty much the same pattern every time. It does shift around a bit though and that does make a difference.

So here is the composite. Lots of warm air floods the country due to that crazy STJ and lack of cold air to the north. Now let's add the moderate years since we are borderline strong this year.

And the mean...

Pretty interesting differences here compared to the strong. You can see the west coast ridge instead of the massive GOA trough. Similarly, negative height anomalies extend north instead of that large high over Canada. Much more cold air available and obviously a much better snow pattern for most of us.

For fun, here are the weak years as well. It's basically the same as moderate but shifted further north.

 

So now, here is Dec-Jan.

 

Moderate and strong events match a lot better! In fact, it looks similar in all 3 types just shifted by type.

Strong el nino events seem to be correlated with big time precip over a broad area compared to only a slight bump in weak-moderate. Weak el nino is the coldest overall for the eastern half of the country.

 

Kind of interesting how the stronger the event the further east its centered on average. You can essentially see this same shift on the Dec-Jan height maps too. 

Seems to be a hybrid event on models, which makes sense for a borderline mod-strong year. I guess we will see! Hope this was interesting. 

[Tom]

The Canadian model came in last night with a fascinating run in terms of the Strong Nino (modoki flavor)....the trend has been to migrate the warm waters farther west as we roll through the start of the new LRC (Oct-Nov), followed by, the continuation of the NE PAC Warm Blob which the model is indicating will contribute to immense high lat blocking in the Northern Territories of N Canada.

 

Autumn...

 

Winter...looks pretty darn similar to some of the maps @Black Holeposted above...I'm liking these early trends.

 

 

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

The Canadian model came in last night with a fascinating run in terms of the Strong Nino (modoki flavor)....the trend has been to migrate the warm waters farther west as we roll through the start of the new LRC (Oct-Nov), followed by, the continuation of the NE PAC Warm Blob which the model is indicating will contribute to immense high lat blocking in the Northern Territories of W Canada.

 

Autumn...

 

Winter...looks pretty darn similar to some of the maps @Black Holeposted above...I'm liking these early trends.

 

 

I like that Cansips map. It still has the major high latitude block, but its more favorable because it doesn't have the wild GOA low. Got to avoid that. 

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

[Tom]

59 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I like that Cansips map. It still has the major high latitude block, but its more favorable because it doesn't have the wild GOA low. Got to avoid that. 

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

I do not and would be interested to know if someone can dig it up.  I think this coming years Niño is going to be one that sets a new callibor of Modoki’s (if it works out the way modeling is suggesting).

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

The Canadian model came in last night with a fascinating run in terms of the Strong Nino (modoki flavor)....the trend has been to migrate the warm waters farther west as we roll through the start of the new LRC (Oct-Nov), followed by, the continuation of the NE PAC Warm Blob which the model is indicating will contribute to immense high lat blocking in the Northern Territories of N Canada.

 

Autumn...

 

Winter...looks pretty darn similar to some of the maps @Black Holeposted above...I'm liking these early trends.

 

 

There's that westward shift in the Niño I've been looking for! Should be actually underway right now.

Add all these things together and trim off the extreme solutions on either end of the spectrum and I think it spells a nice winter on the way. 

It's August 1, I can talk about winter now. I think we're all over summer finally.

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I like that Cansips map. It still has the major high latitude block, but its more favorable because it doesn't have the wild GOA low. Got to avoid that. 

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

As a general guess, the strongest Modoki was 2009 and it peaked at moderate. Don't know of any really strong events that didn't really bleed over into the full-latitude category.

I used to know where the reconstruction sst maps were and could be generated, but I don't anymore.