ENSO 2023

[OKwx2k4]

If there's still an old thread, after 3 Niña years in a row; out with the old, in with the new. 

Today vs June 2009 (top analog)

The images are obviously from different sources, but in our hemisphere, hard to shake the similarities.

Discuss and enjoy!

[Tom]

I am really hoping that the CFSv2 is right about the Modook Nino for the Autumn/early Winter...it may be running a bit to hot, or rather, warm...but, nonetheless, the idea of a central-based Nino would be interesting scenario for the U.S. winter next year.  Gotta get past this summer and see the evolution.  

Oh, I'd also be stoked to see the NE PAC warm and hug the coastline in NW NAMER...we haven't had this type of patter for 3 or more years from all the Nina's and a dominant N PAC flow.  Maybe nature is shaking things up this year??? 

 

Autumn....

 

Early Winter...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Yep. Keep that cold tongue in the east (straight north of 1.2) and north of the ENSO region all the way up to Baja California and i'll need a snowmobile for a month at least. Subsurface backs this and atmosphere agrees as well. All the heat is stacked on the other side of the globe. 

I LOVE this. I've been trying not to say the winter word here, but...well, oops. Haha. 

Tom, I blame you. You started it! Lol. 

I'm excited for the summer AND the winter to come. 

My honest thoughts are actually that the CFS has the Niño too far east even there. May have one centered very close to 180 line with no Pacific-induced warm masses of air flooding us. 

I was early last winter. This one is going to be the big one. I scored avg snow last season with really not ever the best conditions to do it in. Won't be that way this year, in my opinion.

[OKwx2k4]

Also at this...

Tom wrote: "Oh, I'd also be stoked to see the NE PAC warm and hug the coastline in NW NAMER...we haven't had this type of patter for 3 or more years from all the Nina's and a dominant N PAC flow.  Maybe nature is shaking things up this year???"

can you say "near permanent Aleutian Low"? Yes please! I'm going to get excited if I don't stop. Lol. That's a southern branch monsters setup if I ever saw it with a delivery path right through my house. All the fuel storms need on the Pac with a reserve in the GzoM. Awesome stuff!!

Alsi, when the oceans warm in a certain pattern, it causes a warm ocean/cold continents pattern or positive TNH pattern. May last two decades, may last two years, but I'll put everything I have on the belief that we witnessed a dual-hemispheric climate shift. 

[Andie]

On 5/23/2023 at 9:15 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

If there's still an old thread, after 3 Niña years in a row; out with the old, in with the new. 

Today vs June 2009 (top analog)

The images are obviously from different sources, but in our hemisphere, hard to shake the similarities.

Discuss and enjoy!

I remember that winter.

[OKwx2k4]

A little more info....

We are very nearly at the tri-monthly threshold to make it official.

Although heat is surfacing in the east at a rapid rate, it has no depth to supply it...(last image). Lastly, looky at this forecast....(next image). Sorry they're out of order. They didn't post correctly.

[Iceresistance]

The SOI index has been crazy lately, 16 days streak of negative daily values

[gimmesnow]

Oh man I hope next winter is good. I ended my snowboard season in Lutsen with a high level snowboard instructor who taught me so much stuff, only for everything to be put away for the season.

[OKwx2k4]

On 5/27/2023 at 10:11 AM, gimmesnow said:

Oh man I hope next winter is good. I ended my snowboard season in Lutsen with a high level snowboard instructor who taught me so much stuff, only for everything to be put away for the season.

If enso peaks by October, you will very likely get your wish.

[Black Hole]

What's the typical El Nino effect for my part of the world, especially for winter? 

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

What's the typical El Nino effect for my part of the world, especially for winter? 

In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. In extreme + Nino episodes with a huge positive pdo signature, it's like the tropics invaded us. Pacific air flooding us for days. In a weaker, more moderate or central Pacific Niño (Modoki), the southern branch can't continually pull hot air off and we see a year like 2009-10 happen. Extreme or very weak Nino episodes are pretty much in the equal chances category. N.Pac ocean temps are a huge part of this equation as well. That's one that has been debated since the great warm pool of 2013-14 and part of '15, known as "the blob" for a time. 

[Tom]

14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. In extreme + Nino episodes with a huge positive pdo signature, it's like the tropics invaded us. Pacific air flooding us for days. In a weaker, more moderate or central Pacific Niño (Modoki), the southern branch can't continually pull hot air off and we see a year like 2009-10 happen. Extreme or very weak Nino episodes are pretty much in the equal chances category. N.Pac ocean temps are a huge part of this equation as well. That's one that has been debated since the great warm pool of 2013-14 and part of '15, known as "the blob" for a time. 

Gosh, if that "Split Flow" in the NE PAC can really become a dominant jet stream pattern of next autumn's LRC...Look out below!