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2/8 - 2/9 Upper Midwest GL Snow System


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Models are in good agreement about a fairly potent wave coming out of the pacific NW and tracking along the upper midwest into the northern GL's.  This isn't a true clipper system, but it has some characteristics of a clipper as it comes in from the NW.  These ones are always fun to fall within that track.  I'd need a huge shift south to get into any of this, but maybe it will shift far enough south that parts of Iowa get clipped.  Here is the 12z GFS and 00z Euro.

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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I hadn't shoveled the multiple rounds of fluff stuff the past 3 days and decided I'd just wait and collect what remained with today's event. First time doing the entire property since slab-fest 3 wks

Ended up with around 8 or so here   Euro was pretty much right on the money. Gfs//NAM too low

Fluff pound town. About 3.5” so far. Looks like we’ll hit at least 6” based on current radar trends. Points north of here won’t get nearly as much. Visibility 1/4 mi.

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The Canadian is farther south, which would obviously be good for me, but I would put my money on the northern track of the GFS/Euro.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is on board the Minnesota train.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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If this stays a little north then I'm looking at mix or rain.  This winter is really the worst.  Misses west, south, north and yes even east!  West Central MI has got the dome going.  

 

Was gonna say, "fizzles over the Mitt"  :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like about 0.4-0.5” of liquid with this as it stands now. Assuming pretty decent ratios, this could yield a nice snowfall somewhere close to the metro. I need to fire up the snowblower to burn off the fuel in the tank. My threshold is 4” so let’s make it happen. I still think Rochester is the sweet spot with this though.

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Man, if this would shift south, that would be amazing, some really nice totals setting up.  Not going to hold my breath on that.  Up to 1.5" this run though. :)

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

Seriously tho? We can hardly get 6" out of this wave coming up from the Gulf, yet this clipper-ish thing will deliver a foot plus way up in MN. Somethin just not right in my wx world  :wacko:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The NAM is now in range and it looks just like the other models (minus the south outlier Canadian).

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK came south a touch

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Meanwhile, the Euro has moved north.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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From the morning disco:

 

Expect heavy snowfall to develop under

this band, with rates of at least 1 inch per hour likely. Where

exactly this band sets up remains to be seen, and will likely not

become apparent until at least Saturday. But, it is becoming more

clear that we`ll see that narrow band of 6 to 8 inches develop

within a broader swath of 3 to 6 inches. The blended guidance off

the National Blend of Models has more of a widespread area of 4 to 6

inches, but this likely washes out the aforementioned banding

feature that should set up across the region. As of now, it appears

that this will be along a line from Redwood Falls through Mankato to

Rochester MN, but this could and likely will change with new

guidance. One could easily make the case that this could end up

being anywhere from the MN/IA border up to say the I-94 corridor.

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12z Canadian still sticking with its south track, and I'm still not buying this scenario, even though I'd love it to verify.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Canadian still sticking with its south track, and I'm still not buying this scenario, even though I'd love this to verify.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

I would think waves coming out of the Pacific NW would be handled halfway decent by the CMC but the way models have performed this winter, I would trust none of them.

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UK is drifting south as well.  Will the Euro remain north?

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I would think waves coming out of the Pacific NW would be handled halfway decent by the CMC but the way models have performed this winter, I would trust none of them.

I recall last year and several times in years past, the Canadian usually does very well with northern stream waves. The Euro usually plays catch up. The Euro is money with SW flow/southern stream storms inside 5 days.

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IA looking good today. I’d guess the Euro follows suit in a bit. Those kuchera maps are so ridiculously bad. No way anyone gets 12-16” from this occluding low, regardless of the east-west band.

 Kuchera maps are fun to look at, but rarely verify.  

 

GEFS ensemble has the bullseye in far southern MN near the IA border.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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NAM and ICON are in the northern camp compared to the Canadian and GFS. Euro is in between. Barely any snow south of the MN/IA border on the 18z NAM. Wouldn’t be fun to track if they agreed would it?

 

Euro will win this, but that's just my opinion.  It does well with these systems.  

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The ICON keeps drifting north, LOL.  The 18z run even has good snow up to Duluth.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 00z NAM is a tick south, but that only takes it to southern Minnesota like the Euro.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Canadian shifted north some, not surprisingly.  Models are converging on s MN and n IA.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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0z NAM has quite the burst of snow S of the low track for SMI. I suppose iffy thermals could spell trouble, but verbatim I like the look for Sunday night:

 

20200207 0z nam12 h72 Surf.png

 

fwiw, my inlaws east of Moscow are suddenly in a very snowy period and their pattern aligns with ours wrt wx. Sometimes they will lead ours by about 8-10 days. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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