bud2380 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Models are in good agreement about a fairly potent wave coming out of the pacific NW and tracking along the upper midwest into the northern GL's. This isn't a true clipper system, but it has some characteristics of a clipper as it comes in from the NW. These ones are always fun to fall within that track. I'd need a huge shift south to get into any of this, but maybe it will shift far enough south that parts of Iowa get clipped. Here is the 12z GFS and 00z Euro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 The Canadian is farther south, which would obviously be good for me, but I would put my money on the northern track of the GFS/Euro. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Yep, Canadian goes nuts here in IA. LOL. Never gonna happen here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 12z UK is on board the Minnesota train. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Ukie, pretty similar to the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 12z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Rochester should do well with this. Tight gradients on the northern fringe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Euro, stays consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 If this stays a little north then I'm looking at mix or rain. This winter is really the worst. Misses west, south, north and yes even east! West Central MI has got the dome going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 If this stays a little north then I'm looking at mix or rain. This winter is really the worst. Misses west, south, north and yes even east! West Central MI has got the dome going. Was gonna say, "fizzles over the Mitt" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 12z EPS is rather juicy across MN/WI...should have some pretty good ratios... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'll be in St Paul this weekend so it looks like I'll get to enjoy it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 18z GFS didn't shift the track south, but the southern edge of the system is stronger so brings snow down to I80 in Eastern Iowa this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Man, if this would shift south, that would be amazing, some really nice totals setting up. Not going to hold my breath on that. Up to 1.5" this run though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looks like about 0.4-0.5” of liquid with this as it stands now. Assuming pretty decent ratios, this could yield a nice snowfall somewhere close to the metro. I need to fire up the snowblower to burn off the fuel in the tank. My threshold is 4” so let’s make it happen. I still think Rochester is the sweet spot with this though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Man, if this would shift south, that would be amazing, some really nice totals setting up. Not going to hold my breath on that. Up to 1.5" this run though. Seriously tho? We can hardly get 6" out of this wave coming up from the Gulf, yet this clipper-ish thing will deliver a foot plus way up in MN. Somethin just not right in my wx world 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 The NAM is now in range and it looks just like the other models (minus the south outlier Canadian). Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Looks like the 00z GFS ticked south a bit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 UK came south a touch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 UK came south a touch Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Meanwhile, the Euro has moved north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 06z GFS...total snowfall which captures the entire event plus the weak clipper on Sat... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 From the morning disco: Expect heavy snowfall to develop underthis band, with rates of at least 1 inch per hour likely. Whereexactly this band sets up remains to be seen, and will likely notbecome apparent until at least Saturday. But, it is becoming moreclear that we`ll see that narrow band of 6 to 8 inches developwithin a broader swath of 3 to 6 inches. The blended guidance offthe National Blend of Models has more of a widespread area of 4 to 6inches, but this likely washes out the aforementioned bandingfeature that should set up across the region. As of now, it appearsthat this will be along a line from Redwood Falls through Mankato toRochester MN, but this could and likely will change with newguidance. One could easily make the case that this could end upbeing anywhere from the MN/IA border up to say the I-94 corridor. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 6z EC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 I took a quick look at the soundings from the 0z GFS on Sunday morning. Pretty solid DGZ here around 225mb deep. There’s a small temp inversion just above the ground but temps stay well below freezing. Looks like a decent setup. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 12z GFS holds firm on the southern edge. I may need to pay my parents a visit this weekend as they are showing 6" on the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 12z GFS holds firm on the southern edge. I may need to pay my parents a visit this weekend as they are showing 6" on the GFS Wish the Euro would cave south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 12z Canadian still sticking with its south track, and I'm still not buying this scenario, even though I'd love it to verify. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 12z Canadian still sticking with its south track, and I'm still not buying this scenario, even though I'd love this to verify. I would think waves coming out of the Pacific NW would be handled halfway decent by the CMC but the way models have performed this winter, I would trust none of them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 UK is drifting south as well. Will the Euro remain north? 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 I would think waves coming out of the Pacific NW would be handled halfway decent by the CMC but the way models have performed this winter, I would trust none of them.I recall last year and several times in years past, the Canadian usually does very well with northern stream waves. The Euro usually plays catch up. The Euro is money with SW flow/southern stream storms inside 5 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 CMC with Kuchera ratios 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 IA looking good today. I’d guess the Euro follows suit in a bit. Those kuchera maps are so ridiculously bad. No way anyone gets 12-16” from this occluding low, regardless of the east-west band. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 IA looking good today. I’d guess the Euro follows suit in a bit. Those kuchera maps are so ridiculously bad. No way anyone gets 12-16” from this occluding low, regardless of the east-west band. Kuchera maps are fun to look at, but rarely verify. GEFS ensemble has the bullseye in far southern MN near the IA border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Euro came south a tick, but not to the level of the other models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Glad to see the Euro hold serve. But the squeeze on the northern fringe is a problem. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 Looks like a decent "front end thump" over here with the ICON the most aggressive with rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2020 Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 15z SREF 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.