St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 3km NAM also south of 06z, also increases totals. HRRR is really ramping up too. Interesting trends so far today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z NAM...better for those on the southern edge... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z WRF...it might be pounding here for bit Sun afternoon... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z NAM...better for those on the southern edge... Nice. LOT Met mentioned that the NAM was over-doing the dry air for your area. Glad to see it's coming around for ya buddy! Should be a nice event for most in the game. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Man someone is going to get in a favored snow belt here and get some good totals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated 10” in southern Minnesota. Forecast is 5-8 there but I think flake size will be solid with this event and strong forcing could push rates to 1”+/hour in the heaviest bands. Maybe even close to 2”/hour rates at times 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 RGEM is much further south with the southern edge still. But that model honestly is almost never right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z GFS totals are increasing it appears. My call of 1.25” looking like a total dud now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 There is a solid 3" of new snow on the ground here. It is the light fluffy lake effect type so I will just shovel it. At this time it is 28 here with some sun starting to break out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 There is a solid 3" of new snow on the ground here. It is the light fluffy lake effect type so I will just shovel it. At this time it is 28 here with some sun starting to break out. 2.5" per hour rates per GRR under the heaviest returns 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Yep GFS with the full cave to the Euro and yes even the NAM. Significant shift north over the past few runs. Hoping to get a couple inches in northeast Iowa still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 There is a solid 3" of new snow on the ground here. It is the light fluffy lake effect type so I will just shovel it. At this time it is 28 here with some sun starting to break out. Very nice since y'all up that way got missed by the storm Th/Fri. Oh, and btw, I believe this thread's for tomorrow's storm. Today's a gap day between thd's 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Daytime, heavy snow and light be winds. That sounds like the PERFECT Sunday! I'm calling 6" but that might be low. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 People, lets try and keep current observations separate from LES Streamers ( on February's thread). Very nice since y'all up that way got missed by the storm Th/Fri. Oh, and btw, I believe this thread's for tomorrow's storm. Today's a gap day between thd's Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN Mar 2024: April 2024: Season So Far: 21.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Lets see if any Headline for mby will be issued in the 4pm package today. Looking for a 3-5" event here. Not too shabby. Continuing to add in the snow dept. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN Mar 2024: April 2024: Season So Far: 21.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Lets see if any Headline for mby will be issued in the 4pm package today. Looking for a 3-5" event here. Not too shabby. Continuing to add in the snow dept.I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here. More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 UK a little further south overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Got some direct info from MPX that they are not planning to upgrade the metro to a warning..yet. They said they think all of the 12z models are overestimating the snowfall amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here. More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most Per Tom's post about rippage. LOT Met gave a break-down: While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere. The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north. I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z UKIE... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here. More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most Hazardous Weather OutlookHazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan.A low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.Also...read Jasters post. Per Tom's post about rippage. LOT Met gave a break-down: While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere. The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north. I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN Mar 2024: April 2024: Season So Far: 21.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Hazardous Weather OutlookHazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan.A low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.Also...read Jasters post.That would be great, but reality is more like 1-3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 That would be great, but reality is more like 1-3"Reality is 2-4". Potential is there for 3-5" Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN Mar 2024: April 2024: Season So Far: 21.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 That's not what the actual forecast for Utica shows. It shows 1" during the day Sunday and another 1" for Sunday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Reality is 2-4". Potential is there for 3-5"if you type in Macomb MI also at the website it shows the same:1" for Sundayaround 1" for Sunday Night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z Euro... some of the better snow has extended through Wisconsin. 2 Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Reality is 2-4". Potential is there for 3-5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 It’s struggled a bit this winter, but really no reason not to trust the King. Issue the advisory and let’s roll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z Euro...enjoy the rippage up north fellas... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 18z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Left out of the headlines for this storm. Had one yesterday for nothing. Great stuff.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 NAMs south on the 18z runs. Rochester pound town. Update from MPX coming with the afternoon package soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z Euro... some of the better snow has extended through Wisconsin. Euro looks stout for SMI. Other models nasso much. Euro must be wrong. My office must be right. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 On the upcoming WWA I have to say I do not remember when the last time I have see the this wording in a forecast. "Temperatures will remain below freezing until the cold front comes through. At that point winds will turn from the east to the southwest and that will being warmer air from Lake Michigan into the area so temperatures will rise to just above freezing for a few hours" That means it will warm up "after a cold front" Here is more on the write up. "ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will begin around noon, become heavy at times into the evening then diminish to light snow or even drizzle in the evening. Most of the storm total snowfall will occur by early evening. Temperatures will remain below freezing until the cold front comes through. At that point winds will turn from the east to the southwest and that will being warmer air from Lake Michigan into the area so temperatures will rise to just above freezing for a few hours before enough cold air comes in to bring the temperature below freezing. This will likely result in icy conditions on many roads for the Monday morning commute." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 WSW just issued here for 6-8 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 WWA back at home for 3-6". Looks like the warning stops just south of TC metro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 South TC burbs in the warning. 4-6” north, 6-8” south. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 I know, but I am still thinking 3-4", maybe locally 5" amounts. This system looks like it has some strong dynamics. We will see what happens. Thats all I have to say. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN Mar 2024: April 2024: Season So Far: 21.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 00z HRRR has shifted mostly south of MSP again. Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 I know, but I am still thinking 3-4", maybe locally 5" amounts. This system looks like it has some strong dynamics. We will see what happens. Thats all I have to say. Per a SEMI Met, you may not be far off bud! Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 I know, but I am still thinking 3-4", maybe locally 5" amounts. This system looks like it has some strong dynamics. We will see what happens. Thats all I have to say.Hope you're right! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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