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2/8 - 2/9 Upper Midwest GL Snow System


bud2380

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Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low.

 

Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow.

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Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low.

 

Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow.

 

Two years ago, it was 8 day streak and 19" during. Doubt we come anywhere close to that this time. Sad to say, I agree with your concerns about tomorrow's event. Today's spike above freezing was telling. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Do we have any members in between Minneapolis and Waterloo?  I'm thinking there was someone near Rochester, but I don't remember.

season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK and Euro similar and solid here. NAM looks decent as well. But, if I'm going to compare with the Jan 17-18th, those looked better on maps the day prior than what actually transpired wrt the warm layer and mix issues. Have to wait and see if this goes the same way or not. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z Euro...a little better around these parts...hoping for 2" and seeing some intense rates and wind later today...nice thing about this system is many will enjoy it during the day.  Temps have dipped into the upper 20's here so that should help with some blowing/drifting on the streets which I enjoy since I'll prob be driving in it later today!  B)

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Took other offices telling mine "get a freaking clue". Do they not teach impact forecasting?

 

"We have added the southern row of counties to the advisory this

morning in collaboration with surrounding offices. The reasoning of

this is that while amounts down south will be less, we are looking

for the snow rates to hamper travel enough to justify an advisory"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5-6 inches in 2 hours. No lie

 

I'm not surprised.  That band on radar was very intense (yellow/orange).   I would love to see something like that.

 

The south side of MSP is currently pound town.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Per a SEMI Met, you may not be far off bud!

;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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