bud2380 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 3k NAM is so far north now that there is barely any snow in Iowa at all except for the northern about 10 miles of the state Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low. Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 00z HRRR has shifted mostly south of MSP again. 01z run increased totals from the previous hour. Just wait for it. It’ll change again 5 times before the event starts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low. Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow. Two years ago, it was 8 day streak and 19" during. Doubt we come anywhere close to that this time. Sad to say, I agree with your concerns about tomorrow's event. Today's spike above freezing was telling. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Pretty solid overall consistency between the models. Almost all of them have warning level snows one county south of St Paul and Mpls while both cities are quite a bit lighter in amounts. Literally a 4-6” difference in less than 15 miles. Gonna be interesting to see this play out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Do we have any members in between Minneapolis and Waterloo? I'm thinking there was someone near Rochester, but I don't remember. Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Do we have any members in between Minneapolis and Waterloo? I'm thinking there was someone near Rochester, but I don't remember. gosaints? I want to say 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Do we have any members in between Minneapolis and Waterloo? I'm thinking there was someone near Rochester, but I don't remember.Yep, Gosaints. I think he’s near St Charles, east of Rochester. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Maybe some drizzle if you believe the GFS during the tail end of the event but it won't matter to much as the majority of the precip falls when temps are cold enough tp support SN.Looking like more liquid on the backend after the initial thump? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Ramsey County (St Paul) is the smallest county in MN in terms of square mileage. There are 6-8 different shades of colors in the county on many models right now. Lol. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 GFS fairly similar to previous runs. Time to watch the radar and see what happens. I hope to wake to snow falling here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Canadian almost identical to the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Final UK 2 Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 UK and Euro similar and solid here. NAM looks decent as well. But, if I'm going to compare with the Jan 17-18th, those looked better on maps the day prior than what actually transpired wrt the warm layer and mix issues. Have to wait and see if this goes the same way or not. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Final Euro.... a bit drier max band 1 Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 The HRRR has totals in the max band AOA 12". Gonna have to take the over on that one. I wonder why it's has so much more QPF over the other models. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 The HRRR has totals in the max band AOA 12". Gonna have to take the over on that one. I wonder why it's has so much more QPF over the other models.3km NAM RAP and HRRR all very moist in a narrow band. Lightning showing up in southwest mn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 00z Euro...a little better around these parts...hoping for 2" and seeing some intense rates and wind later today...nice thing about this system is many will enjoy it during the day. Temps have dipped into the upper 20's here so that should help with some blowing/drifting on the streets which I enjoy since I'll prob be driving in it later today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 00z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 I get heavy returns, but temps above freezing zap a lot of accumulation. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 And the thunder rolls 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Upgraded to a warning. It’s ripping good out there. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Absolute pukefest out there right now. Guessing the dry air punch will make it here and cut down on totals some 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Absolute pukefest out there right now. Guessing the dry air punch will make it here and cut down on totals someLooks like the dry slot is trying to close off around Blue Earth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Looks like the dry slot is trying to close off around Blue Earth.its trying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Absolute pukefest out there right now. Guessing the dry air punch will make it here and cut down on totals someEasily best rates of the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Easily best rates of the season?5-6 inches in 2 hours. No lie 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 5-6 inches in 2 hours. No lieHow’s the wind down there? No wind at all here. The flakes are just pouring down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 5-6 inches in 2 hours. No lieWowza! This hybrid has everything going for it. Nice score! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Took other offices telling mine "get a freaking clue". Do they not teach impact forecasting? "We have added the southern row of counties to the advisory thismorning in collaboration with surrounding offices. The reasoning ofthis is that while amounts down south will be less, we are lookingfor the snow rates to hamper travel enough to justify an advisory" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Starting to come down good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Only got an inch in Guttenberg, which is about 20-25 miles south of Prairie du Chien, WI. It’s now switched over to a mix of snow and drizzle. Any accumulation appears to be over here. The NAM handled this the best here. All hail king NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Fluff pound town. About 3.5” so far. Looks like we’ll hit at least 6” based on current radar trends. Points north of here won’t get nearly as much. Visibility 1/4 mi. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Starting to come down goodYou’re gonna do well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 5-6 inches in 2 hours. No lie I'm not surprised. That band on radar was very intense (yellow/orange). I would love to see something like that. The south side of MSP is currently pound town. 1 Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Well the mix turned back to all snow and it’s coming down decent. May tack on an inch or less yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 No travel advisory for portions of S MN. Plows can’t keep up with snow removal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Looks like there’s reports of 8-9 inches just north of Rochester as of 6 AM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Per a SEMI Met, you may not be far off bud! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN Mar 2024: April 2024: Season So Far: 21.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northland09 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Received only an 1.5" from this storm. It's pretty well done in our neck of the woods. Just little flurries that won't be accumulating to much now. We were on the edge of this storm, so I'm thankful we at least received something to cover up the old, nasty looking snow! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.