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2/8 - 2/9 Upper Midwest GL Snow System


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00z NAM is unchanged, 3k NAM is north.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I hadn't shoveled the multiple rounds of fluff stuff the past 3 days and decided I'd just wait and collect what remained with today's event. First time doing the entire property since slab-fest 3 wks

Ended up with around 8 or so here   Euro was pretty much right on the money. Gfs//NAM too low

Fluff pound town. About 3.5” so far. Looks like we’ll hit at least 6” based on current radar trends. Points north of here won’t get nearly as much. Visibility 1/4 mi.

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RGEM with 4-ish inches here by Sunday evening with snow ongoing. About 2" of that is pre-storm LES stuff from 2-nite/Saturday. 

 

20200207 18z RGEM h54 SLR Snow.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z NAM is unchanged, 3k NAM is north.

 

0z gives us twice the snow 12z had for over here. 

 

NAM showing a similar 4" total as the RGEM, but that was not the entire event (Also, NAM is Kuchera)

 

20200208 0z NAM h60 KCH Snow.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z ICON.. this model has always been on the north side of the spread.

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_19.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS with a decent jump north.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK is north as well.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro...

 

This reminds me of a mini version of 1/17-18, no? Unfortunately again not too friendly around your area. Liking the chance for 2-ish inches (10:1) or more via Kuchera around here per the models. Concern would be the warm tongue being more aggressive than advertised as happened with that storm here. We had the qpf to easily have been an 8+ storm. Get the moisture. Cold doesn't show up to play. Always something isn't it? Good luck all the same for this time around!  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My office had been running with a "RN/SN" mix for Sunday night. Apparently what IWX wrote about profiles even south of here had merit. GRR has updated me overnight. This looks much better.  :)

 

20200208 KRMY 36 hr Grid-cast.PNG

 

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z NAM...better for those on the southern edge...

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Nice. LOT Met mentioned that the NAM was over-doing the dry air for your area. Glad to see it's coming around for ya buddy! Should be a nice event for most in the game. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Man someone is going to get in a favored snow belt here and get some good totals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated 10” in southern Minnesota. Forecast is 5-8 there but I think flake size will be solid with this event and strong forcing could push rates to 1”+/hour in the heaviest bands. Maybe even close to 2”/hour rates at times

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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There is a solid 3" of new snow on the ground here. It is the light fluffy lake effect type so I will just shovel it. At this time it is 28 here with some sun starting to break out.

 

2.5" per hour rates per GRR under the heaviest returns

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There is a solid 3" of new snow on the ground here. It is the light fluffy lake effect type so I will just shovel it. At this time it is 28 here with some sun starting to break out.

 

Very nice since y'all up that way got missed by the storm Th/Fri. Oh, and btw, I believe this thread's for tomorrow's storm. Today's a gap day between thd's  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Daytime, heavy snow and light be winds. That sounds like the PERFECT Sunday! I'm calling 6" but that might be low.

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WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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People, lets try and keep current observations separate from LES Streamers ( on February's thread).

 

Very nice since y'all up that way got missed by the storm Th/Fri. Oh, and btw, I believe this thread's for tomorrow's storm. Today's a gap day between thd's  ;)

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here.  More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most

 

 capture.png?v=f2b96276-03c7-4659-b993-9b

 

Per Tom's post about rippage. LOT Met gave a break-down:

 

While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere.

 

The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north.

 

I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here.  More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most

 

 capture.png?v=f2b96276-03c7-4659-b993-9b

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan.A low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.

Also...read Jasters post.

 

Per Tom's post about rippage. LOT Met gave a break-down:

 

While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere.

 

The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north.

 

I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan.A low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.

Also...read Jasters post.

That would be great, but reality is more like 1-3"

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12z Euro...  some of the better snow has extended through Wisconsin.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z HRRR

 

hrrr_asnow_ncus_34.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Left out of the headlines for this storm. Had one yesterday for nothing. Great stuff..

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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