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2/8 - 2/9 Upper Midwest GL Snow System


bud2380

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Yep... the system is fading for MSP, but looking great for Decorah.  There may even be an inch here in Cedar Rapids.  It's hard to know how this kind of system will perform on the southern edge.

season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As mentioned y-day, thermals are a concern over here. While acknowledging WAA has over-performed this winter, I like this from IWX. Verbatim it's looking decent for a 2-3" front-end hit, a warm-ish lull or snizzle, followed by possible SHSN or LES. I like wetter snow so I will gladly go for this option. 

 

Issued at 324 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020


An 850-mb low from the Northern Plains broadens Sunday morning as it
tracks through our area. 30-45 knot winds at 850 mb are nearly
perpendicular to the isotherms in both the GFS and ECMWF through
much of Sunday, indicating strong warm air advection. A look at
cross sections from Monticello, IN to Hillsdale, MI reveals that
despite this WAA, the thermal profile for much of this event looks
to be conducive for mainly snow, especially at onset.
This is part
because of the existing cold dome (reinforced by the
aforementioned clipper). It is not until later in the event (Sunday
afternoon/evening) that profiles show a warm layer nosing into
the southwest 1/4 of the CWA to accommodate some rain/mixed
precip. But, even this is short-lived as cold air advection
returns as the low pulls away.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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RGEM with 4-ish inches here by Sunday evening with snow ongoing. About 2" of that is pre-storm LES stuff from 2-nite/Saturday. 

 

20200207 18z RGEM h54 SLR Snow.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z NAM is unchanged, 3k NAM is north.

 

0z gives us twice the snow 12z had for over here. 

 

NAM showing a similar 4" total as the RGEM, but that was not the entire event (Also, NAM is Kuchera)

 

20200208 0z NAM h60 KCH Snow.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z Euro...

 

This reminds me of a mini version of 1/17-18, no? Unfortunately again not too friendly around your area. Liking the chance for 2-ish inches (10:1) or more via Kuchera around here per the models. Concern would be the warm tongue being more aggressive than advertised as happened with that storm here. We had the qpf to easily have been an 8+ storm. Get the moisture. Cold doesn't show up to play. Always something isn't it? Good luck all the same for this time around!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My office had been running with a "RN/SN" mix for Sunday night. Apparently what IWX wrote about profiles even south of here had merit. GRR has updated me overnight. This looks much better.  :)

 

20200208 KRMY 36 hr Grid-cast.PNG

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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