bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Euro edged south. closer to the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Yep... the system is fading for MSP, but looking great for Decorah. There may even be an inch here in Cedar Rapids. It's hard to know how this kind of system will perform on the southern edge. Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 through the end of the storm in Iowa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 This is one of those systems that reminds me of a PAC Hybrid that will have some intense west/east banding. I could see someone getting those higher totals. Nice dynamics showing up with this potent wave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Of course mby will get destroyed cuz I'll be gone all weekend. Hate that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 I'm excited that I'll be heading north for the weekend. My parents house looks to be in a great spot, just on the southern edge of the heavier bands on most guidance, but still solidly 4+" on all models except the NAM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Of course mby will get destroyed cuz I'll be gone all weekend. Hate thatJames stop on by and help me sweep the dusting off my driveway on Sunday. Haha. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 James stop on by and help me sweep the dusting off my driveway on Sunday. Haha.Haha right?! I guess at least I'll have a fresh snowcover for when I get home. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 I imagine DMX will add a row of counties to the south including mine for the WSW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 If someone has the Euro Kuchera maps, I'd love to see them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 If someone has the Euro Kuchera maps, I'd love to see them. Tom posted this in the Feb thread. Extends out past this storm but you get the idea. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 MPX baby steppin down the totals. Down to 2-4” locally. My call of 1.25” looking good. I should see if the office is hiring. I’ll show them how to be ultra conservative (and correct). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 NAM still wants to score the coup. I’m gonna ride it until it burns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 NAM remains the furthest north. Always the northerly bias from the NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 3K NAM very similar to the 12k NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 15Z SREF plume for the place nearest Guttenberg shows about 5.5". I'm hoping for 4", anything on top of that is gravy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Updated map from DMX - Guttenberg right on the edge of the 4-6/6-8" line. Just slightly south of it by maybe 5 miles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Looks like a S/C MN smasher on the 18z GFS. A little more breathing room on the northern edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 GFS a bit further north this run. But still hits NE Iowa Good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 As mentioned y-day, thermals are a concern over here. While acknowledging WAA has over-performed this winter, I like this from IWX. Verbatim it's looking decent for a 2-3" front-end hit, a warm-ish lull or snizzle, followed by possible SHSN or LES. I like wetter snow so I will gladly go for this option. Issued at 324 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020An 850-mb low from the Northern Plains broadens Sunday morning as ittracks through our area. 30-45 knot winds at 850 mb are nearlyperpendicular to the isotherms in both the GFS and ECMWF throughmuch of Sunday, indicating strong warm air advection. A look atcross sections from Monticello, IN to Hillsdale, MI reveals thatdespite this WAA, the thermal profile for much of this event looksto be conducive for mainly snow, especially at onset. This is partbecause of the existing cold dome (reinforced by theaforementioned clipper). It is not until later in the event (Sundayafternoon/evening) that profiles show a warm layer nosing intothe southwest 1/4 of the CWA to accommodate some rain/mixedprecip. But, even this is short-lived as cold air advectionreturns as the low pulls away. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z NAM is unchanged, 3k NAM is north. Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 RGEM with 4-ish inches here by Sunday evening with snow ongoing. About 2" of that is pre-storm LES stuff from 2-nite/Saturday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z NAM is unchanged, 3k NAM is north. 0z gives us twice the snow 12z had for over here. NAM showing a similar 4" total as the RGEM, but that was not the entire event (Also, NAM is Kuchera) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 NAMs keeping it interesting at least. Within 30 hours. Some models are gonna blink soon, unless this becomes a nowcast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z ICON.. this model has always been on the north side of the spread. 1 Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 RGEM with a slight tick north, at least with the snow shield up this way. FWIW, which isn’t a whole lot. Still hits N IA hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 GFS with a decent jump north. Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Yeah GFS with quite a big shift north the last two runs now. Gonna be right on the line in guttenberg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 RGEM remains much further south. It’s off it’s rocker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 GFS now with accumulating snow halfway between here and Duluth. So much for consistency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z UK is north as well. Quote season snowfall: 28.9" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 I just got to St Paul a while ago. Bring on the snow! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Winter storm watch expanded north to cover MSP metro. What a nice surprise to wake up to. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Models all shifted a good 50-75 miles north overnight. I’ll probably only see a couple inches now. Was hoping to see about 4. I90 corridor looks to be in the jackpot zone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 6z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 00z Euro... This reminds me of a mini version of 1/17-18, no? Unfortunately again not too friendly around your area. Liking the chance for 2-ish inches (10:1) or more via Kuchera around here per the models. Concern would be the warm tongue being more aggressive than advertised as happened with that storm here. We had the qpf to easily have been an 8+ storm. Get the moisture. Cold doesn't show up to play. Always something isn't it? Good luck all the same for this time around! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 My office had been running with a "RN/SN" mix for Sunday night. Apparently what IWX wrote about profiles even south of here had merit. GRR has updated me overnight. This looks much better. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 12z NAM coming in south of 06z but seems to be increasing intensity too. South metro to north of Rochester really whacked good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.