Jump to content
The Weather Forums

2/8 - 2/9 Upper Midwest GL Snow System


Recommended Posts

12z Euro...  some of the better snow has extended through Wisconsin.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Euro looks stout for SMI. Other models nasso much. Euro must be wrong. My office must be right. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the upcoming WWA I have to say I do not remember when the last time I have see the this wording in a forecast.

"Temperatures will remain below

  freezing until the cold front comes through. At that point winds

  will turn from the east to the southwest and that will being

  warmer air from Lake Michigan into the area so temperatures will

  rise to just above freezing for a few hours" 

That means it will warm up "after a cold front"

Here is more on the write up.

"ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will begin around noon, become

  heavy at times into the evening then diminish to light snow or

  even drizzle in the evening. Most of the storm total snowfall

  will occur by early evening. Temperatures will remain below

  freezing until the cold front comes through. At that point winds

  will turn from the east to the southwest and that will being

  warmer air from Lake Michigan into the area so temperatures will

  rise to just above freezing for a few hours before enough cold

  air comes in to bring the temperature below freezing. This will

  likely result in icy conditions on many roads for the Monday

  morning commute."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z HRRR has shifted mostly south of MSP again.

 

hrrr_asnow_ncus_27.png

sn10_acc.wxchallenge.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know, but I am still thinking 3-4", maybe locally 5" amounts. This system looks like it has some strong dynamics. We will see what happens. Thats all I have to say.

 

Per a SEMI Met, you may not be far off bud!

 

 

Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5"

 
  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low.

 

Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low.

 

Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow.

 

Two years ago, it was 8 day streak and 19" during. Doubt we come anywhere close to that this time. Sad to say, I agree with your concerns about tomorrow's event. Today's spike above freezing was telling. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do we have any members in between Minneapolis and Waterloo?  I'm thinking there was someone near Rochester, but I don't remember.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UK and Euro similar and solid here. NAM looks decent as well. But, if I'm going to compare with the Jan 17-18th, those looked better on maps the day prior than what actually transpired wrt the warm layer and mix issues. Have to wait and see if this goes the same way or not. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The HRRR has totals in the max band AOA 12". Gonna have to take the over on that one. I wonder why it's has so much more QPF over the other models.

  • Like 1

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Euro...a little better around these parts...hoping for 2" and seeing some intense rates and wind later today...nice thing about this system is many will enjoy it during the day.  Temps have dipped into the upper 20's here so that should help with some blowing/drifting on the streets which I enjoy since I'll prob be driving in it later today!  B)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get heavy returns, but temps above freezing zap a lot of accumulation.

  • Like 1

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Took other offices telling mine "get a freaking clue". Do they not teach impact forecasting?

 

"We have added the southern row of counties to the advisory this

morning in collaboration with surrounding offices. The reasoning of

this is that while amounts down south will be less, we are looking

for the snow rates to hamper travel enough to justify an advisory"

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5-6 inches in 2 hours. No lie

 

I'm not surprised.  That band on radar was very intense (yellow/orange).   I would love to see something like that.

 

The south side of MSP is currently pound town.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...