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2/8 - 2/9 Upper Midwest GL Snow System


bud2380

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12z NAM...better for those on the southern edge...

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Nice. LOT Met mentioned that the NAM was over-doing the dry air for your area. Glad to see it's coming around for ya buddy! Should be a nice event for most in the game. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man someone is going to get in a favored snow belt here and get some good totals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated 10” in southern Minnesota. Forecast is 5-8 there but I think flake size will be solid with this event and strong forcing could push rates to 1”+/hour in the heaviest bands. Maybe even close to 2”/hour rates at times

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There is a solid 3" of new snow on the ground here. It is the light fluffy lake effect type so I will just shovel it. At this time it is 28 here with some sun starting to break out.

 

Very nice since y'all up that way got missed by the storm Th/Fri. Oh, and btw, I believe this thread's for tomorrow's storm. Today's a gap day between thd's  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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People, lets try and keep current observations separate from LES Streamers ( on February's thread).

 

Very nice since y'all up that way got missed by the storm Th/Fri. Oh, and btw, I believe this thread's for tomorrow's storm. Today's a gap day between thd's  ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Lets see if any Headline for mby will be issued in the 4pm package today. Looking for a 3-5" event here. Not too shabby. Continuing to add in the snow dept.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here.  More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most

 

 capture.png?v=f2b96276-03c7-4659-b993-9b

 

Per Tom's post about rippage. LOT Met gave a break-down:

 

While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere.

 

The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north.

 

I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I also live in Macomb and do not see any mention of 3-5" here.  More like 1-2 and possibly 3 at the most

 

 capture.png?v=f2b96276-03c7-4659-b993-9b

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan.A low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.

Also...read Jasters post.

 

Per Tom's post about rippage. LOT Met gave a break-down:

 

While tomorrow won't be the warning criteria event that everyone is craving in northern IL, it could be interesting for a few hours. Very steep lapse rates above 600 mb, possibly some small MUCAPE, and transient strong f-gen may yield convective snow rates in the quick moving WAA shield. Wouldn't be completely surprised if TSSN happened somewhere.

 

The 12z CAMs all hint at this, but most notably the 12z HRRR, which has a wall of 40+ dBZ reflectivity. Duration will the biggest limiting factor, as these potential heavy rates may only last an hour or two, maybe a bit longer far north.

 

I'm not saying tomorrow will, but sometimes these setups can overperform locally if you really max out the heavy rates for that 2-3 hour window. One such recent setup that comes to mind is February 17, 2018 (2-3", locally 4" in 3-4 hours with marginal surface temps). Throw in the gusty south winds and conditions could be legit for a couple hours, with a bonus that if it happens it'll be during the daytime. If something like the 12z HRRR pans out, might be worthy of snow squall warning consideration.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan.A low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.

Also...read Jasters post.

That would be great, but reality is more like 1-3"

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That would be great, but reality is more like 1-3"

Reality is 2-4". Potential is there for 3-5"

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Left out of the headlines for this storm. Had one yesterday for nothing. Great stuff..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z Euro...  some of the better snow has extended through Wisconsin.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Euro looks stout for SMI. Other models nasso much. Euro must be wrong. My office must be right. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On the upcoming WWA I have to say I do not remember when the last time I have see the this wording in a forecast.

"Temperatures will remain below

  freezing until the cold front comes through. At that point winds

  will turn from the east to the southwest and that will being

  warmer air from Lake Michigan into the area so temperatures will

  rise to just above freezing for a few hours" 

That means it will warm up "after a cold front"

Here is more on the write up.

"ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will begin around noon, become

  heavy at times into the evening then diminish to light snow or

  even drizzle in the evening. Most of the storm total snowfall

  will occur by early evening. Temperatures will remain below

  freezing until the cold front comes through. At that point winds

  will turn from the east to the southwest and that will being

  warmer air from Lake Michigan into the area so temperatures will

  rise to just above freezing for a few hours before enough cold

  air comes in to bring the temperature below freezing. This will

  likely result in icy conditions on many roads for the Monday

  morning commute."

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detailedmacombforecast.png?v=b915bfa8-a4

I know, but I am still thinking 3-4", maybe locally 5" amounts. This system looks like it has some strong dynamics. We will see what happens. Thats all I have to say.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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I know, but I am still thinking 3-4", maybe locally 5" amounts. This system looks like it has some strong dynamics. We will see what happens. Thats all I have to say.

 

Per a SEMI Met, you may not be far off bud!

 

 

Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5"

 
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 49.3" (83% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 1.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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