Tom 16887 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 It's starting to look like the models may be converging on a developing winter storm later this week. A complex situation is evolving where we have 2 pieces of energy potentially phasing somewhere across the MW and wrapping up into a potent storm system with arctic air in toe. Let's discuss... So, we have the Euro, which has been steadfast in ejecting a closed off ULL from the desert SW into the S Plains/MW while a northern piece drives south into the Upper MW/Plains. Confidence in this particular is solution is growing as we have the GFS and other models starting to latch onto this idea. I can't help but think back to earlier this week when we had a similar storm track up from the deep south Gulf states and up into the App's. It's been one of the dominant storm tracks since way back in October where we have lacked any cold air to tap. Is it finally going to change this go-around??? The 00z GEFS animation below looks like a golden track for those in the MW/Lower Lakes region. This map off the 00z EPS is a classic illustration of a direct arctic air connection from the North Pole into the CONUS....it's nice to see for a moment the block over the Pole. Once the system departs, there will be an impressive shot of arctic air....possibly the seasons coldest which will likely ignite the GL's. Some of the models have a significant backside LES potential for those in MI. Lot's of moving parts with this storm and an interesting system to track. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Last night's 00z GEFS/EPS took a big step towards a wrapped up storm cutting up the OHV.... 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 00z Euro Control... 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Wxmidatlantic 261 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 It's a safe bet... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 06Z Euro- (trending SE)http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/06Z/ecmwfued---conus-90-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.png 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 compared to 00Z - I can only go out 90 hours on 06Z- but not a good trend and this thing has so much potential to phasehttp://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued---conus-96-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.png 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 6z GFS mean 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 906 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Doesn’t look good once again. Just not the year for a good wound up GL storm. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 416 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 I don’t know about those accumulations that high on some models, temps are forecasted to be 32-35 while this storm tracks NE. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 12z NAM trending colder and stronger. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 416 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 12z NAM has the storm falling Tuesday night in KC, that would help accumulations. Temps on this run still warm, 32-34 at night!! Shows 3-4 inches for most of MO on this run. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Wow..this storm looks like a really good hit for SEMI. Still couple days away, but it looks impressive, especially w a great track. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Icon no bueno. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 GFS no bueno. Way S. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 CMC gives a little hope in mby, but need some colder temps. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Euro is holding fairly steady, with a bit of a south drift. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 12z Euro... 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 NOAA: A more complex and possibly impactful pattern evolution emergeswithin the late Wednesday through Thursday periods. The forecastdetails derived from this evolution largely governed by how a closedlow fixated over the southwest conus ejects northeast and the degreethis system interacts or phases with amplifying northern streamenergy. Model solution space unsurprisingly unsettled and quitesensitive to degree of pv interaction, lending to a lower confidenceforecast for this period. With that said, worth acknowledging thepotential for a meaningful accumulating snowfall, resulting from aninitial period of mid level warm air advection and/or a deeper midlevel dynamic response. There does seem to be general modelconsensus for the northern stream system to carry more of an arcticflavor - currently projected to bring 850 mb temperatures below-20C by Friday morning. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 906 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 GRR is confident this will be a decent storm for Southern Michigan 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
uticasnow 18 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Alot can, and always does change between now and then. Keep our fingers crossed. We need a good one! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 18z NAM Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 18z GFS is warmer and much flatter, Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4220 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Hope something trends toward a pleasant surprise for you folks up there. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 CMC gives a little hope in mby, but need some colder temps. Story of 2019-20 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Hope something trends toward a pleasant surprise for you folks up there. I appreciate that OKwx. If we are struggling to be cold enough, it goes without saying this isn't the winter you were hoping for! Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4220 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 I appreciate that OKwx. If we are struggling to be cold enough, it goes without saying this isn't the winter you were hoping for! I know it buddy. It's all good though. I've just had to find other things to focus on this year or I'll get frustrated. I gripe and complain like everyone else does, but "this, too, shall pass". Winters will come back here. Trends still say sooner rather than later so after 5 years, what's one more? Lol. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Not the winter most us were hoping for. Except I think MN and parts of IA have done well. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 We need this to phase w the northern energy, otherwise, it will be no good. Timing is everything. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 00z Euro has expanded the show nw, but it's weak. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 While there is some consistency among the models of trying to phase both streams, the trough being positively tilted is keeping this from becoming a major storm. Nonetheless, looks like another "stat" padder is in the works. 00z Canadian... 00z GFS... 00z Ukie... 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 00z GEFS... 00z Euro control... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 06z NAM came a bit NW this run... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 06z GFS.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 3z SREF Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 06z NAM came a bit NW this run... NAM is a little quicker with the cold air and makes all the difference. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 6z GFS mean looks a little better Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 06Z Euro trying to phase a tad more-- but too far E for many members. But Windy City , MI peeps do decent. http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/06Z/ecmwfued-null--conus-90-C-kucheratot.png 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 NAM trying to do the phase...... 3 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z NAM... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 NAM trying to do the phase...... Has big hit potential for ya bud. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 3km NAM sure wish this snow would fall at night. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Has big hit potential for ya bud.Hopefully...... Otherwise, it will be another small event. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Hopefully...... Otherwise, it will be another small event.I like the direction the 12z ICON is headed. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Sure would be nice if this could phase just a touch quicker. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 I like the direction the 12z ICON is headed. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z ICON looks good for many 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 I like the direction the 12z ICON is headed.Not a bad look, that's for sure..... 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Will need the snow cover but strongest cold of the year for me 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 ICON qpf 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
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