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2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter


Tom
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It's starting to look like the models may be converging on a developing winter storm later this week.  A complex situation is evolving where we have 2 pieces of energy potentially phasing somewhere across the MW and wrapping up into a potent storm system with arctic air in toe.

 

Let's discuss...

 

So, we have the Euro, which has been steadfast in ejecting a closed off ULL from the desert SW into the S Plains/MW while a northern piece drives south into the Upper MW/Plains.  Confidence in this particular is solution is growing as we have the GFS and other models starting to latch onto this idea.

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

I can't help but think back to earlier this week when we had a similar storm track up from the deep south Gulf states and up into the App's.  It's been one of the dominant storm tracks since way back in October where we have lacked any cold air to tap.  Is it finally going to change this go-around???  The 00z GEFS animation below looks like a golden track for those in the MW/Lower Lakes region.

 

This map off the 00z EPS is a classic illustration of a direct arctic air connection from the North Pole into the CONUS....it's nice to see for a moment the block over the Pole.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_5.png

 

 

 

Once the system departs, there will be an impressive shot of arctic air....possibly the seasons coldest which will likely ignite the GL's.  Some of the models have a significant backside LES potential for those in MI.  Lot's of moving parts with this storm and an interesting system to track. 

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compared to 00Z - I can only go out 90 hours on 06Z- but not a good trend and this thing has so much potential to phasehttp://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued---conus-96-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro is holding fairly steady, with a bit of a south drift.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NOAA:

 

A more complex and possibly impactful pattern evolution emerges
within the late Wednesday through Thursday periods. The forecast
details derived from this evolution largely governed by how a closed
low fixated over the southwest conus ejects northeast and the degree
this system interacts or phases with amplifying northern stream
energy. Model solution space unsurprisingly unsettled and quite
sensitive to degree of pv interaction, lending to a lower confidence
forecast for this period. With that said, worth acknowledging the
potential for a meaningful accumulating snowfall
, resulting from an
initial period of mid level warm air advection and/or a deeper mid
level dynamic response. There does seem to be general model
consensus for the northern stream system to carry more of an arctic
flavor - currently projected to bring 850 mb temperatures below
-20C by Friday morning.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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CMC gives a little hope in mby, but need some colder temps.

 

Story of 2019-20

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hope something trends toward a pleasant surprise for you folks up there.

 

I appreciate that OKwx. If we are struggling to be cold enough, it goes without saying this isn't the winter you were hoping for!  :(

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I appreciate that OKwx. If we are struggling to be cold enough, it goes without saying this isn't the winter you were hoping for! :(

I know it buddy. It's all good though. I've just had to find other things to focus on this year or I'll get frustrated.

 

I gripe and complain like everyone else does, but "this, too, shall pass". Winters will come back here. Trends still say sooner rather than later so after 5 years, what's one more? Lol.

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00z Euro has expanded the show nw, but it's weak.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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While there is some consistency among the models of trying to phase both streams, the trough being positively tilted is keeping this from becoming a major storm.  Nonetheless, looks like another "stat" padder is in the works.

 

00z Canadian...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Ukie...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Euro...

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06Z Euro trying to phase a tad more-- but too far E for many members. But Windy City , MI peeps do decent. http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/06Z/ecmwfued-null--conus-90-C-kucheratot.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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