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2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter


Tom

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NOAA:

Closed mid level circulation now noted on water vapor pivoting
southward across southern California will take residence over
Arizona/northern Mexico during the early week period. This energy
will then accelerate northeast Tue night/Wednesday, the process
aided by ongoing height falls associated with strong shortwave
energy of north pacific origin. A piece of arctic energy shedding
off the mean polar low will immediately trail while digging into the
emerging eastward propagating mean trough. This pattern evolution
always challenging, owing to the inherent uncertainty with regard to
potential/degree of interaction between these features -
particularly prior to appropriate sampling of key northern stream
dynamics.

As it stands now, general consensus holds with enough separation
between pv features to maintain a more progressive, somewhat flatter
ejection of the lead energy. The projected trajectory positions
southeast Michigan favorably to witness a period of ascent tied to
some combination of mid level isentropic lift and deformation. The
underlying environment certainly lends increasing confidence for an
accumulating snowfall within the Wednesday night/Thursday period,
but with amounts still governed by sensitivity to movement in system
track and corresponding adjustments in magnitude/duration of forcing
and the temperature/moisture profile. Latest forecast calls for 2 to
4 inches, with these totals certainly subject to revision as the
event nears. Arctic frontal passage will then present a secondary
window for accumulation Thursday night. Arctic air firmly entrenched
for the Friday period, but residence time appears brief as upper
heights build quickly and temperatures moderate accordingly through
the upcoming weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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k, perhaps my 1-3" was just an office jab

 

Official take this afternoon is a bit more bullish:

 

-- System snow expected from Wed Afternoon through Thurs


An upper trough stretches through the plains states on Wednesday
with both northern and southern stream waves noted. The waves are
moving out of Canada into the northern plains and through the
southern plains over Texas. These waves try to phase up a bit as
they move our direction, but never truly get in sync. As such, the
surface low does not reach deep levels as it moves through the
Great Lakes region. At its closest approach, there is a 999mb low
in both the operational GFS and ECMWF moving through southeast
Ohio Wednesday night. The heavier precipitation looks to miss our
area to the south, with the heaviest occurring in our area towards
I-94. The northern stream wave pushes and Arctic front through our
area on Thursday.

In terms of impacts we are looking at accumulating snow spreading
into the area Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night.
The snow will linger into Thursday, somewhat enhanced by the
Arctic Front. Temperatures plunge in the wake of the front on
Thursday, dropping into the teens by evening. We are expecting 2
to possibly 5 inches across the forecast area with the highest
totals occurring across the southern half of the forecast area,
I-96 to the south. The winds crank up on Thursday which should
create some blowing and drifting in the afternoon given the
falling temps and smaller flake size late. We are most likely
looking at an Advisory event centered on Wednesday night and
Thursday. Slippery road conditions will be the main impact, with
visibility concerns developing on Thursday.

 

The lack of proper phasing S of the north country is stunning this season. Not unlike 2011-12

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some interesting weather going on in the valley of the sun...just spoke to my Mom and there was an intense cell that moved right over head...this ULL has some "umpff"

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020

AZZ541-546>549-110215-
Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-
Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Rio Verde/Salt River AZ-
645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARICOPA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
MST...

At 644 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Granite Reef Dam, or near Fountain Hills, moving
north at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Granite Reef Dam, McDowell Mountain
Park, Rio Verde, Falcon Field Airport and Fort McDowell.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Route 87 between mile markers 181 and 193.
AZ Route 202 between mile markers 16 and 24.
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I like where I sit right now. It would take a very drastic shift over 48 hours to get me out of the snow. Looks like a high-end advisory here right now which.... with the way this season has gone, beggars can't be choosers.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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00z Canadian is expanded a bit nw on the west end, but sagged se on the east end.  It's a little stronger in general.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With the arctic frontal snows- I don't think the global models are handling it well if it all. The synoptic snow is a different story.  As I mentioned y-day; the frontal snows/post frontal will be better pegged by the CAM's and even DMX mentioned it in the PM AFD y-day.

 

With sufficient shear (discussed more below), there
is a brief window for horizontal convective roll development
Wednesday evening, which could be timed with the Wednesday PM
commute which could cause problems with rapidly changing
conditions along roadways. At this time there is still some
uncertainty in this development with limited moisture and a fairly
stable surface layer. Something to monitor in future updates as
we get into the range of CAMs.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe?

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NOAA:

There has been relative consistency among the 00Z model suite with
respect to the system set to impact the region Wed evening into
Thurs. The upper low now churning over the AZ/nrn Mexico border is
forecast to eject to the northeast as it lifts out of the Texas
panhandle on Wednesday as a northern stream short wave dives into the
central Rockies. Model solutions continue to suggest enough phase
separation between these two waves to cause the Texas panhandle wave
to accelerate northeast and become highly sheared. As the wave lifts
into the Ohio Valley Wed night, the mid level deformation will
overspread a good portion of Se Mi. The strongest mid level ascent is
expected to be focused a closer to the surface low track across Ohio
given the sheared nature of the system. Despite the region of mid
level dry air initially over srn Mi, this system will pick up
additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing decent moisture
advection into Se Mi. Current model solutions continue to indicate
some accumulating snow from this system Wed night. At this stage in
the forecast, the highest amounts of 2 to 5 in, are expected from
metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe?

 

 

Yep hoping the arctic front squeezes out moisture, because synoptic snows are looking too far south for here.   

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SnowfallNE3-2.jpeg?w=632

 

Since the storm is targeting major population areas and airport hubs in the region, travel disruptions could be substantial. Airline passengers should anticipate flight delays and cancellations stemming from the major hubs of O'Hare International, St. Louis International and Detroit Metro airports. Major cities, including Chicago, Detroit and Columbia, Missouri, are expected to be blanketed by a 3- to 6-inch snowfall. For these locations and many others, the weather system has the potential to be the biggest single snowstorm of the winter so far -- and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches is forecast along the storm's route in the Midwest with a few locations in western Texas picking up a tad more.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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