MIKEKC Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Tom, #realwinter for a couple days Nobody will say NO! Come on! #Trendcolder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 18z NAM not bad 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 NOAA:Closed mid level circulation now noted on water vapor pivotingsouthward across southern California will take residence overArizona/northern Mexico during the early week period. This energywill then accelerate northeast Tue night/Wednesday, the processaided by ongoing height falls associated with strong shortwaveenergy of north pacific origin. A piece of arctic energy sheddingoff the mean polar low will immediately trail while digging into theemerging eastward propagating mean trough. This pattern evolutionalways challenging, owing to the inherent uncertainty with regard topotential/degree of interaction between these features -particularly prior to appropriate sampling of key northern streamdynamics.As it stands now, general consensus holds with enough separationbetween pv features to maintain a more progressive, somewhat flatterejection of the lead energy. The projected trajectory positionssoutheast Michigan favorably to witness a period of ascent tied tosome combination of mid level isentropic lift and deformation. Theunderlying environment certainly lends increasing confidence for anaccumulating snowfall within the Wednesday night/Thursday period,but with amounts still governed by sensitivity to movement in systemtrack and corresponding adjustments in magnitude/duration of forcingand the temperature/moisture profile. Latest forecast calls for 2 to4 inches, with these totals certainly subject to revision as theevent nears. Arctic frontal passage will then present a secondarywindow for accumulation Thursday night. Arctic air firmly entrenchedfor the Friday period, but residence time appears brief as upperheights build quickly and temperatures moderate accordingly throughthe upcoming weekend. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 k, perhaps my 1-3" was just an office jab Official take this afternoon is a bit more bullish: -- System snow expected from Wed Afternoon through ThursAn upper trough stretches through the plains states on Wednesdaywith both northern and southern stream waves noted. The waves aremoving out of Canada into the northern plains and through thesouthern plains over Texas. These waves try to phase up a bit asthey move our direction, but never truly get in sync. As such, thesurface low does not reach deep levels as it moves through theGreat Lakes region. At its closest approach, there is a 999mb lowin both the operational GFS and ECMWF moving through southeastOhio Wednesday night. The heavier precipitation looks to miss ourarea to the south, with the heaviest occurring in our area towardsI-94. The northern stream wave pushes and Arctic front through ourarea on Thursday.In terms of impacts we are looking at accumulating snow spreadinginto the area Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night.The snow will linger into Thursday, somewhat enhanced by theArctic Front. Temperatures plunge in the wake of the front onThursday, dropping into the teens by evening. We are expecting 2to possibly 5 inches across the forecast area with the highesttotals occurring across the southern half of the forecast area,I-96 to the south. The winds crank up on Thursday which shouldcreate some blowing and drifting in the afternoon given thefalling temps and smaller flake size late. We are most likelylooking at an Advisory event centered on Wednesday night andThursday. Slippery road conditions will be the main impact, withvisibility concerns developing on Thursday. The lack of proper phasing S of the north country is stunning this season. Not unlike 2011-12 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 18z ICON holds 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 18z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z Euro That's an uptick for the nw edge vs 12z. We just need to keep that trend going. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Some interesting weather going on in the valley of the sun...just spoke to my Mom and there was an intense cell that moved right over head...this ULL has some "umpff" Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather StatementNational Weather Service Phoenix AZ645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020AZZ541-546>549-110215-Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Rio Verde/Salt River AZ-645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARICOPA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PMMST...At 644 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a strongthunderstorm over Granite Reef Dam, or near Fountain Hills, movingnorth at 20 mph.Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible withthis storm.Locations impacted include...Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Granite Reef Dam, McDowell MountainPark, Rio Verde, Falcon Field Airport and Fort McDowell.This includes the following highways...AZ Route 87 between mile markers 181 and 193.AZ Route 202 between mile markers 16 and 24. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 NAM coming in more phased through 45 Snow shield father NW pretty strong 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I like where I sit right now. It would take a very drastic shift over 48 hours to get me out of the snow. Looks like a high-end advisory here right now which.... with the way this season has gone, beggars can't be choosers. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z NAM 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z NAM That is getting alot of us involved. Good run! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 That is getting alot of us involved. Good run!Go Big! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 3km NAM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Hope it jogs a bit NW. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I'm ready for my dumping of 0.3" 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Do I see a phase...... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z ICON and GFS both inched nw a bit. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z Canadian is expanded a bit nw on the west end, but sagged se on the east end. It's a little stronger in general. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z Euro...still not bad up here....starting to see a decent signal for Lehs/LES on the backside of the storm as the arctic front plows south... 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z Euro...still not bad up here....starting to see a decent signal for Lehs/LES on the backside of the storm as the arctic front plows south... 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 06z NAM's... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 06z GFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 6z Euro looks weaker and further south. The inside 24hrs strikes again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 With the arctic frontal snows- I don't think the global models are handling it well if it all. The synoptic snow is a different story. As I mentioned y-day; the frontal snows/post frontal will be better pegged by the CAM's and even DMX mentioned it in the PM AFD y-day. With sufficient shear (discussed more below), thereis a brief window for horizontal convective roll developmentWednesday evening, which could be timed with the Wednesday PMcommute which could cause problems with rapidly changingconditions along roadways. At this time there is still someuncertainty in this development with limited moisture and a fairlystable surface layer. Something to monitor in future updates aswe get into the range of CAMs. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 NOAA:There has been relative consistency among the 00Z model suite withrespect to the system set to impact the region Wed evening intoThurs. The upper low now churning over the AZ/nrn Mexico border isforecast to eject to the northeast as it lifts out of the Texaspanhandle on Wednesday as a northern stream short wave dives into thecentral Rockies. Model solutions continue to suggest enough phaseseparation between these two waves to cause the Texas panhandle waveto accelerate northeast and become highly sheared. As the wave liftsinto the Ohio Valley Wed night, the mid level deformation willoverspread a good portion of Se Mi. The strongest mid level ascent isexpected to be focused a closer to the surface low track across Ohiogiven the sheared nature of the system. Despite the region of midlevel dry air initially over srn Mi, this system will pick upadditional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing decent moistureadvection into Se Mi. Current model solutions continue to indicatesome accumulating snow from this system Wed night. At this stage inthe forecast, the highest amounts of 2 to 5 in, are expected frommetro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe? Yep hoping the arctic front squeezes out moisture, because synoptic snows are looking too far south for here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Since the storm is targeting major population areas and airport hubs in the region, travel disruptions could be substantial. Airline passengers should anticipate flight delays and cancellations stemming from the major hubs of O'Hare International, St. Louis International and Detroit Metro airports. Major cities, including Chicago, Detroit and Columbia, Missouri, are expected to be blanketed by a 3- to 6-inch snowfall. For these locations and many others, the weather system has the potential to be the biggest single snowstorm of the winter so far -- and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches is forecast along the storm's route in the Midwest with a few locations in western Texas picking up a tad more. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z EPS...7" as a mean total South of me, wow. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z NAM coming out juiced! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 This event was so close to becoming a major storm. Just the timing was off just a little bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z NAM coming out juiced! Epic dry slot for SMI /N OH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Models getting our hopes up and then within 24hrs taking it away. Was looking good but the trend is not our friend unfortunately especially on the northern fringe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z NAM good hit for many Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just can't buy a fully phased snowstorm this winter. Really lame qpf with this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 3km NAM better for Chicago and Michigan folks 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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