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2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter


Tom

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Just can't buy a fully phased snowstorm this winter. Really lame qpf with this storm.

 

Yep, so why would it suddenly change? Idk, but I've not been invested for that very reason. LES has been minimal too, so thinking that the arctic blast will somehow redeem the failure of a phase is also laughable. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CLE's AFD

 

Our next system begins to approach from the south on Wednesday. The

associated upper-level trough, currently over the southwest US and

northwest Mexico, is expected to traverse east across the lower

Great Plains on Wednesday and then accelerate towards the Ohio

Valley as a short wave trough. At the surface, this will result in

low pressure developing over southern Texas early Wednesday morning,

then moving northeast towards the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, likely

located over western Kentucky/Tennessee by 00 Thursday. Strong

isentropic lift will result in precipitation forming well ahead of

this system, with precipitation overspreading northern Ohio and

northwestern Pennsylvania between 18 UTC Wednesday and 00 UTC

Thursday. The thought right now is that the leading edge of

precipitation will begin as all snow with some pockets of rain/snow

mixing in. Less than an inch of snow is expected through Wednesday

evening.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley to western PA

Wednesday night. Expect precipitation to continue through the night.

Difficult portion of the forecast is the temperature profile across

the region. Every model has the rain/snow/mixed precipitation line

in slightly different locations through Wednesday night causing much

uncertainty to accumulations of snow and ice. Just know that the

Thursday morning commute will be impacted with a good bet that

portions of the region will be under a winter weather advisory.

 

Arctic cold front moves across the region on Thursday with all

locations changing to snow by the afternoon. There will be lake

effect snow but the very dry air of the arctic airmass and the

fairly quick arrival of the area of high pressure should limit snow

amounts. However the snow will be very light and fluffy and could

accumulate more than expected across NE OH and NW PA. We will need

to monitor the lake effect portion closely with an advisory likely

continuing across the snowbelt into Friday night.

Vs. DTX

 

There has been relative consistency among the 00Z model suite with

respect to the system set to impact the region Wed evening into

Thurs. The upper low now churning over the AZ/nrn Mexico border is

forecast to eject to the northeast as it lifts out of the Texas

panhandle on Wednesday as a northern stream short wave dives into the

central Rockies. Model solutions continue to suggest enough phase

separation between these two waves to cause the Texas panhandle wave

to accelerate northeast and become highly sheared. As the wave lifts

into the Ohio Valley Wed night, the mid level deformation will

overspread a good portion of Se Mi. The strongest mid level ascent is

expected to be focused a closer to the surface low track across Ohio

given the sheared nature of the system. Despite the region of mid

level dry air initially over srn Mi, this system will pick up

additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing decent moisture

advection into Se Mi. Current model solutions continue to indicate

some accumulating snow from this system Wed night. At this stage in

the forecast, the highest amounts of 2 to 5 in, are expected from

metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south.

 

The sheared/weakening nature of this initial wave will result in a

reservoir of deep layer moisture holding across the Great Lakes on

Thursday as an arctic front is driven across the state. A northern

stream wave, an extension of the polar low, is forecast to dive into

the western Great Lakes on Thursday, driving the arctic front across

the state. The remnant deep layer moisture, the potential for some

short wave features to ripple across the area in advance of the main

northern stream trough and enhanced boundary layer convergence along

the surface front will support good coverage of snow showers and

minor additional accumulations across the area Thurs. Steepening

lapse rates along the arctic front itself may also support some brief

but intense snowfall rates. The core of the arctic air (850mb temps

down around -21C) will extend across Se Mi on Friday, supporting high

temps only in the teens. The arctic airmass will be very

progressive, with a rapid warming trend set to take hold over the

weekend.

vs. IWX

 

Focus of the forecast remains on the midweek storm which will

bring accumulating snow to the area. As has been discussed in

previous forecast discussions, a cut-off low over the Four

Corners will start to rapidly eject to the NNE tonight into

Wednesday morning. During this same timeframe a trough is

forecast to sweep out of Saskatchewan and into the the northern

Plains. The lifting low will start to elongate while lifting

northwards and a broad surface low is forecast to slide northeast

along the Mississippi River Valley. This will help to bring

precipitation into the forecast area around midday. A pre-existing

wedge of dry air will likely delay precip reaching the ground

until the afternoon as evaporative cooling saturates the lower

levels. Thermal profiles continues to show that initial p-types

should be snow.

 

Models cross-sections between 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday show

the potential for snow bands capable of producing higher snowfall

rates generally south of SR-6. Strong Fgen from 850mb to 700mb,

with a secondary band around 600mb, is shown to be co-located

with strong omega within a fully saturated DGZ. Cross-sections

also show convective static instability for snow showers to tap

into. While this is a similar setup to Sunday`s snow, the

noticeable difference is the lack of a strong LLJ to fracture

dendrites. The core of the LLJ will be shunted south of the

forecast area. All of this supports a window of time where

snowfall could become heavy.

 

Surface low continues to lift northeast across the Ohio River

Valley Wednesday evening and early night hours. As the surface

low moves into the Ohio River Valley, WAA will help to bring an

850mb front into central Indiana. Models continue to hone in on

the northward placement of this front, which will have an impact

on snow amounts and p-type transitions.

 

As we move into the late night hours and Thursday morning, the

upper trough dropping across the northern Plains will start to

encroach on the area and bring a surge of Arctic air across the

upper Midwest and Lake Michigan. In response to the approaching

upper trough, the surface low will start to move further east and

bring the dry slot of the system into the far southeast portion

of the forecast area. Models soundings show the DGZ will struggle

to maintain saturation generally south of US-24 in OH and south of

US-30 in IN. This holds onto the possibility of a mixture of snow

and freezing rain overnight. By Thursday morning, the cold surge

will help to cool sufficiently to bring saturation back into the

DGZ and allow for light snow across the area.

God I love living on the edge of 3 different CWAs.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3km NAM better for Chicago and Michigan folks

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Thx bud. It's trying, isn't it?  This winter's maps have looked good going into an event, only to have actual totals compromised by unfavorable thermals. Case in point, the Euro consistently showed my county with a solid 3-ish inches for the Sunday event right up to game-time. Net score was only 1.2"  January 17-19th storm Euro (and others) kept ramping up til game-time with upwards of 9-10" via Kuchera. Net score was a very ZR compressed 5". Just the way of this very marginal winter. Everything has been marginal - Soil temps - 2m temps - 850's you name it, it's been marginal. I'm always riding a line too N, S, W.  Good luck down there tho. By comparison to "normals" I know you've actually done much better in your region. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA office calling 5" for mby. I'll take it and run. Hopefully it materializes... :lol: ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Thx bud. It's trying, isn't it?  This winter's maps have looked good going into an event, only to have actual totals compromised by unfavorable thermals. Case in point, the Euro consistently showed my county with a solid 3-ish inches for the Sunday event right up to game-time. Net score was only 1.2"  January 17-19th storm Euro (and others) kept ramping up til game-time with upwards of 9-10" via Kuchera. Net score was a very ZR compressed 5". Just the way of this very marginal winter. Everything has been marginal - Soil temps - 2m temps - 850's you name it, it's been marginal. I'm always riding a line too N, S, W.  Good luck down there tho. By comparison to "normals" I know you've actually done much better in your region. 

Thanks and no doubt it's been tough to get big snows.  I just wish I could keep this artic air longer than 2 days.

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LOL @ 12z suite. I'm back to my usual 0.2-2" event. Next (yr)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think its best to just go nowcast and see what the storm will do. Models cannot seem to get their act together.

 

As far as the Euro goes, I think its too far south (maybe a glitch occurred and it is not seeing something correctly) it should fix itself later tanite or tomorrow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18z HRRR shows a rain/snow mix with temps in the upper 30’s in KC.

 

Not one model has K.C. 32 or under during the main snow tomorrow. Most show 33-36, snow during the day, going to be tough to accumulate. EURO is showing the same, more rain mixed in.

 

Dang thermals!!!

Worth also noting that long range HRRR is a major outlier in thermals, and has been in previous storms as well. Toss it till tomorrow.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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CAM will likely not show true until 8-10 hours out. If that. Do not put trust in these in the 12-18+ range. Do a detailed cross/check on these and it makes no sense why they are extended out so long. Much like much "guidance" - albeit temps are a little different than precip.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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CLE starting with an advisory, which is what I figured they'd do.

 

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central,
northeast and northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will likely start as snow
late Wednesday afternoon and early evening and may be of
moderate intensity at times in the evening. Then, a period of a
wintry mix with freezing rain is then likely later in the
evening and overnight. A change to all rain is possible south of
I-76 and east of I-71. Icing accumulations will be focused from
Mansfield to Akron and points south whereas the higher snowfall
will be north of there.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and
traffic conditions.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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