jaster220 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just can't buy a fully phased snowstorm this winter. Really lame qpf with this storm. Yep, so why would it suddenly change? Idk, but I've not been invested for that very reason. LES has been minimal too, so thinking that the arctic blast will somehow redeem the failure of a phase is also laughable. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 NAM looking pretty good for CR & IC as well, with a solid 3-4". the NAM handled the last system very well, so hopefully it's on the right track again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 SREF has been slowly raising totals. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 3km NAM better for Chicago and Michigan folks 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 CLE's AFD Our next system begins to approach from the south on Wednesday. The associated upper-level trough, currently over the southwest US and northwest Mexico, is expected to traverse east across the lower Great Plains on Wednesday and then accelerate towards the Ohio Valley as a short wave trough. At the surface, this will result in low pressure developing over southern Texas early Wednesday morning, then moving northeast towards the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, likely located over western Kentucky/Tennessee by 00 Thursday. Strong isentropic lift will result in precipitation forming well ahead of this system, with precipitation overspreading northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania between 18 UTC Wednesday and 00 UTC Thursday. The thought right now is that the leading edge of precipitation will begin as all snow with some pockets of rain/snow mixing in. Less than an inch of snow is expected through Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley to western PA Wednesday night. Expect precipitation to continue through the night. Difficult portion of the forecast is the temperature profile across the region. Every model has the rain/snow/mixed precipitation line in slightly different locations through Wednesday night causing much uncertainty to accumulations of snow and ice. Just know that the Thursday morning commute will be impacted with a good bet that portions of the region will be under a winter weather advisory. Arctic cold front moves across the region on Thursday with all locations changing to snow by the afternoon. There will be lake effect snow but the very dry air of the arctic airmass and the fairly quick arrival of the area of high pressure should limit snow amounts. However the snow will be very light and fluffy and could accumulate more than expected across NE OH and NW PA. We will need to monitor the lake effect portion closely with an advisory likely continuing across the snowbelt into Friday night. Vs. DTX There has been relative consistency among the 00Z model suite with respect to the system set to impact the region Wed evening into Thurs. The upper low now churning over the AZ/nrn Mexico border is forecast to eject to the northeast as it lifts out of the Texas panhandle on Wednesday as a northern stream short wave dives into the central Rockies. Model solutions continue to suggest enough phase separation between these two waves to cause the Texas panhandle wave to accelerate northeast and become highly sheared. As the wave lifts into the Ohio Valley Wed night, the mid level deformation will overspread a good portion of Se Mi. The strongest mid level ascent is expected to be focused a closer to the surface low track across Ohio given the sheared nature of the system. Despite the region of mid level dry air initially over srn Mi, this system will pick up additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing decent moisture advection into Se Mi. Current model solutions continue to indicate some accumulating snow from this system Wed night. At this stage in the forecast, the highest amounts of 2 to 5 in, are expected from metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south. The sheared/weakening nature of this initial wave will result in a reservoir of deep layer moisture holding across the Great Lakes on Thursday as an arctic front is driven across the state. A northern stream wave, an extension of the polar low, is forecast to dive into the western Great Lakes on Thursday, driving the arctic front across the state. The remnant deep layer moisture, the potential for some short wave features to ripple across the area in advance of the main northern stream trough and enhanced boundary layer convergence along the surface front will support good coverage of snow showers and minor additional accumulations across the area Thurs. Steepening lapse rates along the arctic front itself may also support some brief but intense snowfall rates. The core of the arctic air (850mb temps down around -21C) will extend across Se Mi on Friday, supporting high temps only in the teens. The arctic airmass will be very progressive, with a rapid warming trend set to take hold over the weekend. vs. IWX Focus of the forecast remains on the midweek storm which will bring accumulating snow to the area. As has been discussed in previous forecast discussions, a cut-off low over the Four Corners will start to rapidly eject to the NNE tonight into Wednesday morning. During this same timeframe a trough is forecast to sweep out of Saskatchewan and into the the northern Plains. The lifting low will start to elongate while lifting northwards and a broad surface low is forecast to slide northeast along the Mississippi River Valley. This will help to bring precipitation into the forecast area around midday. A pre-existing wedge of dry air will likely delay precip reaching the ground until the afternoon as evaporative cooling saturates the lower levels. Thermal profiles continues to show that initial p-types should be snow. Models cross-sections between 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday show the potential for snow bands capable of producing higher snowfall rates generally south of SR-6. Strong Fgen from 850mb to 700mb, with a secondary band around 600mb, is shown to be co-located with strong omega within a fully saturated DGZ. Cross-sections also show convective static instability for snow showers to tap into. While this is a similar setup to Sunday`s snow, the noticeable difference is the lack of a strong LLJ to fracture dendrites. The core of the LLJ will be shunted south of the forecast area. All of this supports a window of time where snowfall could become heavy. Surface low continues to lift northeast across the Ohio River Valley Wednesday evening and early night hours. As the surface low moves into the Ohio River Valley, WAA will help to bring an 850mb front into central Indiana. Models continue to hone in on the northward placement of this front, which will have an impact on snow amounts and p-type transitions. As we move into the late night hours and Thursday morning, the upper trough dropping across the northern Plains will start to encroach on the area and bring a surge of Arctic air across the upper Midwest and Lake Michigan. In response to the approaching upper trough, the surface low will start to move further east and bring the dry slot of the system into the far southeast portion of the forecast area. Models soundings show the DGZ will struggle to maintain saturation generally south of US-24 in OH and south of US-30 in IN. This holds onto the possibility of a mixture of snow and freezing rain overnight. By Thursday morning, the cold surge will help to cool sufficiently to bring saturation back into the DGZ and allow for light snow across the area. God I love living on the edge of 3 different CWAs. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 3km NAM better for Chicago and Michigan folks Thx bud. It's trying, isn't it? This winter's maps have looked good going into an event, only to have actual totals compromised by unfavorable thermals. Case in point, the Euro consistently showed my county with a solid 3-ish inches for the Sunday event right up to game-time. Net score was only 1.2" January 17-19th storm Euro (and others) kept ramping up til game-time with upwards of 9-10" via Kuchera. Net score was a very ZR compressed 5". Just the way of this very marginal winter. Everything has been marginal - Soil temps - 2m temps - 850's you name it, it's been marginal. I'm always riding a line too N, S, W. Good luck down there tho. By comparison to "normals" I know you've actually done much better in your region. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 The 06z Euro was pretty ugly. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 The 06z Euro was pretty ugly.Not bad, just very South. I'm more worried about a North shift & this has no backing from other models atm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 The GFS is sagging the nw edge back southeast, too. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 NOAA office calling 5" for mby. I'll take it and run. Hopefully it materializes... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Thx bud. It's trying, isn't it? This winter's maps have looked good going into an event, only to have actual totals compromised by unfavorable thermals. Case in point, the Euro consistently showed my county with a solid 3-ish inches for the Sunday event right up to game-time. Net score was only 1.2" January 17-19th storm Euro (and others) kept ramping up til game-time with upwards of 9-10" via Kuchera. Net score was a very ZR compressed 5". Just the way of this very marginal winter. Everything has been marginal - Soil temps - 2m temps - 850's you name it, it's been marginal. I'm always riding a line too N, S, W. Good luck down there tho. By comparison to "normals" I know you've actually done much better in your region. Thanks and no doubt it's been tough to get big snows. I just wish I could keep this artic air longer than 2 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 NAM keeps getting better, GFS keeps getting worse for Iowa City & CR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 A 6-12 inch snow pack in this area would be great for Baltimore. This would reduce modification with the higher sun angels. Hope the system over performs. It's the only chance we got... Let'er rip... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z UK 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z UK What potential we could have had. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 LOL @ 12z suite. I'm back to my usual 0.2-2" event. Next (yr) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 You guys that far north are still in the game. Maybe not far north with this system, but it's February 11. Let's give a little love to Ohio... 3 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Well the Euro sucks. So it's the NAM or best here. Lot of model disagreement for a storm that is 24-30 hours out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Another storm with a tease and fade. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 You guys should hope for a boom South and West. Phase change will meidiate WAA. From now on sun angle is not our friend. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 You guys that far north are still in the game. Maybe not far north with this system, but it's February 11. Let's give a little love to Ohio...Not THAT part of Ohio though. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12z Euro...another "stat padder"... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Looks good to Baltimore. Storm still developing. You guys know reality rules. This year 24 hrs out is a big deal. Let her rip... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z HRRR shows a rain/snow mix with temps in the upper 30’s in KC. Not one model has K.C. 32 or under during the main snow tomorrow. Most show 33-36, snow during the day, going to be tough to accumulate. EURO is showing the same, more rain mixed in. Dang thermals!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I think its best to just go nowcast and see what the storm will do. Models cannot seem to get their act together. As far as the Euro goes, I think its too far south (maybe a glitch occurred and it is not seeing something correctly) it should fix itself later tanite or tomorrow. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Find a fork and stick it! Headed north this weekend for more sledding and a last glimpse of winter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z HRRR shows a rain/snow mix with temps in the upper 30’s in KC. Not one model has K.C. 32 or under during the main snow tomorrow. Most show 33-36, snow during the day, going to be tough to accumulate. EURO is showing the same, more rain mixed in. Dang thermals!!!Worth also noting that long range HRRR is a major outlier in thermals, and has been in previous storms as well. Toss it till tomorrow. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Find a fork and stick it! Headed north this weekend for more sledding and a last glimpse of winter!Plenty of winter left up north. A good 2-2.5 months left. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 ^Trails will be shot in 3 maybe 4 weeks. My guess is we'll have our piers in by the 20th of April this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 CAM will likely not show true until 8-10 hours out. If that. Do not put trust in these in the 12-18+ range. Do a detailed cross/check on these and it makes no sense why they are extended out so long. Much like much "guidance" - albeit temps are a little different than precip. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 ^Trails will be shot in 3 maybe 4 weeks. My guess is we'll have our piers in by the 20th of April this year.Ah, I forgot you’re a snowmobiler. Yeah trails might not be so hot here by the beginning of March. Docks in by April 20 though? Gonna take a bit of a torch imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratosjeff Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 ^Trails will be shot in 3 maybe 4 weeks. My guess is we'll have our piers in by the 20th of April this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratosjeff Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 You live on the lakes in Madison? My first bass tournament is april 18 on the Mississippi river this year, followed by Madison May 2. I give up on cold and snow this year, don't actually remember models projecting snow this poorly in a long time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 CLE starting with an advisory, which is what I figured they'd do. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AMEST THURSDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of aninch.* WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central,northeast and northwest Ohio.* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardousconditions could impact the morning or evening commute.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will likely start as snowlate Wednesday afternoon and early evening and may be ofmoderate intensity at times in the evening. Then, a period of awintry mix with freezing rain is then likely later in theevening and overnight. A change to all rain is possible south ofI-76 and east of I-71. Icing accumulations will be focused fromMansfield to Akron and points south whereas the higher snowfallwill be north of there.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling.The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1.The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and PennsylvaniaTurnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based ondriving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvaniaroadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, andtraffic conditions. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 https://youtu.be/RUd_c9zJ4yY Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18Z NAMily. Temps are about the same but the low is way South and stronger, and dare I say slower. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Loving it... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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