Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Spent some tme in Champaign Illinois back.in 79... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 https://youtu.be/ZFf-AyERf88 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18Z NAMily. Temps are about the same but the low is way South and stronger, and dare I say slower.Thats about the best we could hope for given the temp profiles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 15z SREF a little better for folks in E. Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 TOP forecast office left me out of the wimpy WWA they issued for points south and east of me. Now that's just rubbing salt in my wounds.... 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 https://youtu.be/Wb0Jmy-JYbA Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Thats about the best we could hope for given the temp profiles.The best you could hope for. I need it to shift back to where it was on last night's 00Z runs but with the same temps. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 It's developing. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 18z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Blizzard Warnings hoisted for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. What could have been...that’s all I’m gonna say...sigh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Blizzard Warnings hoisted for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. What could have been...that’s all I’m gonna say...sighThat's mostly for stuff already on the ground. Shows how crazy the Winter climate is up there. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 That's mostly for stuff already on the ground. Shows how crazy the Winter climate is up there. P sure he knows that and meant if a true merge-phase was happening. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 That's mostly for stuff already on the ground. Shows how crazy the Winter climate is up there.Yup, I understand that and was just trying to suggest the potential this system would have been IF the timing of the Polar Jet and Southern Stream would have phased. This would have been a phenomenal storm. D**n +AO/NAO! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 21z SREF. So far this evening the models have came in a little snowier for some. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 21z SREF. So far this evening the models have came in a little snowier for some. Yep. Last minute game-time "bump" sure would be a nice note to finish up this little snowy stretch on. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 0z NAM Thru h51 getting me to a 3" threshold? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 ..always nice to be grazed S just a few days after being grazed N Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 3km NAM some les 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 ..always nice to grazed S just a few days after being grazed N I need to make the most out of this one, the clock is ticking on winter down here and the long range outlook is terrible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z ICON and RGEM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Totals down on the 00Z suite. Wow, that has totally not happened 24 hours before every single storm this season. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 GFS increased totals in E Iowa. I fully expect an inch maybe 1.5” tops though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z Canadian 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Whoa. Oh, Canada! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z Euro It increased a bit more toward the nw again. At this point, I'd be happy with a couple inches. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 00z Euro...I also added the NWS snowfall forecast... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 This Lehs feature sliding down the lake late tonight into Thursday morning along the leading edge of the arctic front is going to be interesting. I may have stay up late to see this happen. All the meso scale models are showing this heavy band of SN. Could be some very intense snowfall rates for a period. Following this "wall of snow" the winds may have enough of an easterly flow producing convergence along the lake and potential potent lake plume. I think the models are starting to sniff this LES set up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Not sure what the results will be for the two interacting waves that merge over IA but the Arctic front is racing S much faster than expected as RAP and HRRR can't even get it right in 1 hr for surface temps and this from Grand Forks NWS --- "The cold front continues to race south much faster than expected. It should reach the Fargo-Moorhead area around 3 am, and the Wahpeton-Breckenridge area around 4 am. This will bring wind gusts to 50 mph and whiteout conditions, especially in rural areas." 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Grand Forks airport has had 3 consecutive hours with winds easily gusting over 50 mph-- 13" of snow on the ground = that would be awesome. Peak Gust 53KTs = 61mph. Gotta love the Northern Plains. KGFK 120953Z AUTO 35036G50KT 1/4SM R35L/1600V2600FT -SN FZFG VV005 M17/M18 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 36053/0855 SLP121 P0004 T11671183 $KGFK 120951Z AUTO 35036G46KT 1/4SM R35L/1600V2200FT -SN FZFG VV005 M17/M18 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 36053/0855 P0004 $KGFK 120853Z AUTO 35034G48KT 1/4SM R35L/1400V4000FT -SN FZFG VV006 M13/M15 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0759 SLP100 P0000 60001 T11331150 53047 $KGFK 120806Z AUTO 35029G49KT 1/4SM R35L/1800V2800FT -SN FZFG VV005 M11/M13 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0759 P0000 T11111128 $KGFK 120748Z AUTO 36035G48KT 1/4SM R35L/1200V2200FT -SN FZFG BKN006 OVC020 M10/M12 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 36049/0733 SLP074 P0000 T11001117 $ KGFK 120553Z AUTO 25007KT 3SM -SN OVC029 M02/M05 A2963 RMK AO2 SNB02 SLP048 4/013 P0000 60000 T10171050 11011 21039 410111128 53002 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Cloudy and 32 this morning. Radar is looking good with some heavy echos to my south moving my way. Hope to land another 3in event which has been the theme this year. Good luck to everyone today and tomorrow, 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Can’t recall a winter weather advisory ever issued for 1” of snow/blowing snow. If my flight to Miami even gets delayed because of this......not cool. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 6z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Clinton, Where exactly are you? An hour or so SE of K.C.? Are you actually in Clinton, Mo? If so, I think you are in the best spot to get a very wet accumulation. Temps are 35 here in the city and around 32-33 outside the city limits. Going to be tough to get pavement accums today but if we can get the snow to hang on through the evening, we might stack up a bit this evening. Too bad we aren’t 25 degrees, this would be a 6-9 inch snow easily. Beautiful moisture surge. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Clinton is in Warrensburg -- about 20 miles NNW of Clinton,MO 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Whoa. Oh, Canada! Yeah, that would be eerily similar to Vet's Day with the synoptic wave jack-zone, and LES jack-zone the following night! Too bad it's not the model of choice with any storm, lol. Meanwhile Euro looks like another headline FAIL around here. As a matter of fact, it looks pretty odd that GRR has headlines and DTX does not. Models either give all of SMI enough to warrant a WWA, or they don't give either side of the state enough at all. I smell bust. 1" of pixie dust incoming on top of my 2" snow pack. Lol @ snow-on-snow 2019-20 style 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 Yeah, that would be eerily similar to Vet's Day with the synoptic wave jack-zone, and LES jack-zone the following night! Too bad it's not the model of choice with any storm, lol. Meanwhile Euro looks like another headline FAIL around here. As a matter of fact, it looks pretty odd that GRR has headlines and DTX does not. Models either give all of SMI enough to warrant a WWA, or they don't give either side of the state enough at all. I smell bust. 1" of pixie dust incoming on top of my 2" snow pack. Lol @ snow-on-snow 2019-20 style I lost interest in the "storm" 2 days ago. I'm also shocked local mets are still calling for 2-4 with 5" possible near 94. Bad info from GRR weather office. NO way that happens. In fact I think it hardly snows up here, except a brief dusting with the front. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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