bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 GFS not as good as the ICON, doesn't quite phase in time for Iowa to get much of anything. Looks a little better over by Chicago, but not super strong. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 We're getting baby steps from the GFS, but Iowa needs toddler steps. I would like to see a few inches of insulation for the garden before the cold arrives. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 eh, not too bad I guess. Nothing major, but a solid snowfall for some areas. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Though it will only last a day or two- this is some serious cold with some serious temp gradients that I don't think guidance will catch on until HRRR/RAP with 6-8 hours. (as far as squeezing out snow) Near 50F gradient from DSM to SW MN- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 and looks these Wind Chills- ouch for even mid JAN--- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z GFS... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 That's actually quite a step in the right direction (N and W) -- compared to previous runs but likely to little too late for IA folk.eh, not too bad I guess. Nothing major, but a solid snowfall for some areas. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 6z and 12z guidance looks good! 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 The Canadian is just holding steady and not inching nw like some other models. It has little if anything for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 The UK is trending in the opposite direction. It barely has a storm this morning. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Uk for the win 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro coming in stronger 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looks a lot better for KC folks. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Doesn't get quite as far north this run, but qpf is increased in most areas. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Clinton and TOl_Weather are looking very good I think w this run! 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looks a lot better for KC folks. Sure does, but snow below the 540 line does make me a little nervous. Even though last year that worked out several times. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Clinton and TOl_Weather are looking very good I think w this run!6 in mby this run that would be great. The 12z Euro and 12z ICON are very similar. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s with some of this snowfall. Obviously temps look to crash quickly once precip gets really going, but that will significantly cut into snow totals if that is the case. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 6 in mby this run that would be great. The 12z Euro and 12z ICON are very similar.Congrats bud! Hope ya score bigly w this and others as well. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z GEFS...trending in the right direction... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Liking the trends today. Still have 2 days for some more changes (hoping for the better). 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z Euro...some big totals near the RN/SN line with temps hovering near freezing...N IL temps are primarily colder than 30F when the SN starts falling as temps drop into upper 20's/. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looking good for those just south of my area. Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looking good for those just south of my area. Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one. Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 EURO and ICON look great for K.C. and other parts of Missouri per the snowfall maps, but, if temps are 33-35, snowing during the day, you just can’t buy those amounts. The most frustrating thing might be the fact that 6-8 hours after the slug of moisture, temps crash. As a snow contractor, my hope is that it comes in faster Wednesday morning, say 3am and maybe the cold comes in fast enough tomorrow night to freeze up the slush and water on the pavement??? Nonetheless, trends are better today. Hopefully the data is 4 degrees too warm!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z EPS mean trending better 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 EC with a big jump in totals today due to the fact it's colder than the op. Good trends! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 EC with a big jump in totals today due to the fact it's colder than the op. Good trends!Yup, I was just gonna say...looking a lot better than just 24-48 hours ago...the King for the win??? This is prob the best set up for Chicago all season long and not having to deal with marginal temps, storm track, RN/SN line, etc...then again, we have seen dramatic shifts inside 3 days so I'm not getting to excited yet. More importantly, it looks to stay cold post storm so anyone who does get snow will get to enjoy #realwinter for a couple days! LOL 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looking good for those just south of my area. Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one. Don't worry, the office has already decided. WWA for 1-3" (maybe we'll get a Warning next winter) 2 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Don't worry, the office has already decided. WWA for 1-3" (maybe we'll get a Warning next winter) Story of this Winter amigo eh! 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Tom, #realwinter for a couple days Nobody will say NO! Come on! #Trendcolder 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 18z NAM not bad 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 NOAA:Closed mid level circulation now noted on water vapor pivotingsouthward across southern California will take residence overArizona/northern Mexico during the early week period. This energywill then accelerate northeast Tue night/Wednesday, the processaided by ongoing height falls associated with strong shortwaveenergy of north pacific origin. A piece of arctic energy sheddingoff the mean polar low will immediately trail while digging into theemerging eastward propagating mean trough. This pattern evolutionalways challenging, owing to the inherent uncertainty with regard topotential/degree of interaction between these features -particularly prior to appropriate sampling of key northern streamdynamics.As it stands now, general consensus holds with enough separationbetween pv features to maintain a more progressive, somewhat flatterejection of the lead energy. The projected trajectory positionssoutheast Michigan favorably to witness a period of ascent tied tosome combination of mid level isentropic lift and deformation. Theunderlying environment certainly lends increasing confidence for anaccumulating snowfall within the Wednesday night/Thursday period,but with amounts still governed by sensitivity to movement in systemtrack and corresponding adjustments in magnitude/duration of forcingand the temperature/moisture profile. Latest forecast calls for 2 to4 inches, with these totals certainly subject to revision as theevent nears. Arctic frontal passage will then present a secondarywindow for accumulation Thursday night. Arctic air firmly entrenchedfor the Friday period, but residence time appears brief as upperheights build quickly and temperatures moderate accordingly throughthe upcoming weekend. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 k, perhaps my 1-3" was just an office jab Official take this afternoon is a bit more bullish: -- System snow expected from Wed Afternoon through ThursAn upper trough stretches through the plains states on Wednesdaywith both northern and southern stream waves noted. The waves aremoving out of Canada into the northern plains and through thesouthern plains over Texas. These waves try to phase up a bit asthey move our direction, but never truly get in sync. As such, thesurface low does not reach deep levels as it moves through theGreat Lakes region. At its closest approach, there is a 999mb lowin both the operational GFS and ECMWF moving through southeastOhio Wednesday night. The heavier precipitation looks to miss ourarea to the south, with the heaviest occurring in our area towardsI-94. The northern stream wave pushes and Arctic front through ourarea on Thursday.In terms of impacts we are looking at accumulating snow spreadinginto the area Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night.The snow will linger into Thursday, somewhat enhanced by theArctic Front. Temperatures plunge in the wake of the front onThursday, dropping into the teens by evening. We are expecting 2to possibly 5 inches across the forecast area with the highesttotals occurring across the southern half of the forecast area,I-96 to the south. The winds crank up on Thursday which shouldcreate some blowing and drifting in the afternoon given thefalling temps and smaller flake size late. We are most likelylooking at an Advisory event centered on Wednesday night andThursday. Slippery road conditions will be the main impact, withvisibility concerns developing on Thursday. The lack of proper phasing S of the north country is stunning this season. Not unlike 2011-12 2 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 18z ICON holds 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 18z GFS... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z Euro Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z Euro That's an uptick for the nw edge vs 12z. We just need to keep that trend going. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Some interesting weather going on in the valley of the sun...just spoke to my Mom and there was an intense cell that moved right over head...this ULL has some "umpff" Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather StatementNational Weather Service Phoenix AZ645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020AZZ541-546>549-110215-Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Rio Verde/Salt River AZ-645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARICOPA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PMMST...At 644 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a strongthunderstorm over Granite Reef Dam, or near Fountain Hills, movingnorth at 20 mph.Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible withthis storm.Locations impacted include...Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Granite Reef Dam, McDowell MountainPark, Rio Verde, Falcon Field Airport and Fort McDowell.This includes the following highways...AZ Route 87 between mile markers 181 and 193.AZ Route 202 between mile markers 16 and 24. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 NAM coming in more phased through 45 Snow shield father NW pretty strong 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5220 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I like where I sit right now. It would take a very drastic shift over 48 hours to get me out of the snow. Looks like a high-end advisory here right now which.... with the way this season has gone, beggars can't be choosers. 3 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z NAM 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z NAM That is getting alot of us involved. Good run! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 That is getting alot of us involved. Good run!Go Big! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 3km NAM 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dubuque473 272 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Hope it jogs a bit NW. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 I'm ready for my dumping of 0.3" 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Do I see a phase...... 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z ICON and GFS both inched nw a bit. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z Canadian is expanded a bit nw on the west end, but sagged se on the east end. It's a little stronger in general. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
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