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2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter


Tom
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We're getting baby steps from the GFS, but Iowa needs toddler steps.

 

I would like to see a few inches of insulation for the garden before the cold arrives.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Though it will only last a day or two- this is some serious cold with some serious temp gradients that I don't think guidance will catch on until HRRR/RAP with 6-8 hours. (as far as squeezing out snow) Near 50F gradient from DSM to SW MN- sfct.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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That's actually quite a step in the right direction (N and W) -- compared to previous runs but likely to little too late for IA folk.

eh, not too bad I guess.  Nothing major, but a solid snowfall for some areas.

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The Canadian is just holding steady and not inching nw like some other models.  It has little if anything for Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The UK is trending in the opposite direction.  It barely has a storm this morning.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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EURO and ICON look great for K.C. and other parts of Missouri per the snowfall maps, but, if temps are 33-35, snowing during the day, you just can’t buy those amounts.

 

The most frustrating thing might be the fact that 6-8 hours after the slug of moisture, temps crash.

 

As a snow contractor, my hope is that it comes in faster Wednesday morning, say 3am and maybe the cold comes in fast enough tomorrow night to freeze up the slush and water on the pavement???

 

Nonetheless, trends are better today. Hopefully the data is 4 degrees too warm!!

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EC with a big jump in totals today due to the fact it's colder than the op.  Good trends!

1581724800-PXIUNzpKkaY.png

Yup, I was just gonna say...looking a lot better than just 24-48 hours ago...the King for the win???  This is prob the best set up for Chicago all season long and not having to deal with marginal temps, storm track, RN/SN line, etc...then again, we have seen dramatic shifts inside 3 days so I'm not getting to excited yet.  More importantly, it looks to stay cold post storm so anyone who does get snow will get to enjoy #realwinter for a couple days!  LOL

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Looking good for those just south of my area.  Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one.   :D

 

 

:D

 

Don't worry, the office has already decided. WWA for 1-3"  ;) (maybe we'll get a Warning next winter)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NOAA:

Closed mid level circulation now noted on water vapor pivoting
southward across southern California will take residence over
Arizona/northern Mexico during the early week period. This energy
will then accelerate northeast Tue night/Wednesday, the process
aided by ongoing height falls associated with strong shortwave
energy of north pacific origin. A piece of arctic energy shedding
off the mean polar low will immediately trail while digging into the
emerging eastward propagating mean trough. This pattern evolution
always challenging, owing to the inherent uncertainty with regard to
potential/degree of interaction between these features -
particularly prior to appropriate sampling of key northern stream
dynamics.

As it stands now, general consensus holds with enough separation
between pv features to maintain a more progressive, somewhat flatter
ejection of the lead energy. The projected trajectory positions
southeast Michigan favorably to witness a period of ascent tied to
some combination of mid level isentropic lift and deformation. The
underlying environment certainly lends increasing confidence for an
accumulating snowfall within the Wednesday night/Thursday period,
but with amounts still governed by sensitivity to movement in system
track and corresponding adjustments in magnitude/duration of forcing
and the temperature/moisture profile. Latest forecast calls for 2 to
4 inches, with these totals certainly subject to revision as the
event nears. Arctic frontal passage will then present a secondary
window for accumulation Thursday night. Arctic air firmly entrenched
for the Friday period, but residence time appears brief as upper
heights build quickly and temperatures moderate accordingly through
the upcoming weekend.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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k, perhaps my 1-3" was just an office jab

 

Official take this afternoon is a bit more bullish:

 

-- System snow expected from Wed Afternoon through Thurs


An upper trough stretches through the plains states on Wednesday
with both northern and southern stream waves noted. The waves are
moving out of Canada into the northern plains and through the
southern plains over Texas. These waves try to phase up a bit as
they move our direction, but never truly get in sync. As such, the
surface low does not reach deep levels as it moves through the
Great Lakes region. At its closest approach, there is a 999mb low
in both the operational GFS and ECMWF moving through southeast
Ohio Wednesday night. The heavier precipitation looks to miss our
area to the south, with the heaviest occurring in our area towards
I-94. The northern stream wave pushes and Arctic front through our
area on Thursday.

In terms of impacts we are looking at accumulating snow spreading
into the area Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night.
The snow will linger into Thursday, somewhat enhanced by the
Arctic Front. Temperatures plunge in the wake of the front on
Thursday, dropping into the teens by evening. We are expecting 2
to possibly 5 inches across the forecast area with the highest
totals occurring across the southern half of the forecast area,
I-96 to the south. The winds crank up on Thursday which should
create some blowing and drifting in the afternoon given the
falling temps and smaller flake size late. We are most likely
looking at an Advisory event centered on Wednesday night and
Thursday. Slippery road conditions will be the main impact, with
visibility concerns developing on Thursday.

 

The lack of proper phasing S of the north country is stunning this season. Not unlike 2011-12

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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18z Euro

 

That's an uptick for the nw edge vs 12z.  We just need to keep that trend going.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some interesting weather going on in the valley of the sun...just spoke to my Mom and there was an intense cell that moved right over head...this ULL has some "umpff"

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020

AZZ541-546>549-110215-
Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-
Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Rio Verde/Salt River AZ-
645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARICOPA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
MST...

At 644 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Granite Reef Dam, or near Fountain Hills, moving
north at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Granite Reef Dam, McDowell Mountain
Park, Rio Verde, Falcon Field Airport and Fort McDowell.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Route 87 between mile markers 181 and 193.
AZ Route 202 between mile markers 16 and 24.
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I like where I sit right now. It would take a very drastic shift over 48 hours to get me out of the snow. Looks like a high-end advisory here right now which.... with the way this season has gone, beggars can't be choosers.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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00z Canadian is expanded a bit nw on the west end, but sagged se on the east end.  It's a little stronger in general.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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