2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter

[bud2380]

GFS not as good as the ICON, doesn't quite phase in time for Iowa to get much of anything.  Looks a little better over by Chicago, but not super strong.  

[Hawkeye]

We're getting baby steps from the GFS, but Iowa needs toddler steps.

 

I would like to see a few inches of insulation for the garden before the cold arrives.

[bud2380]

eh, not too bad I guess.  Nothing major, but a solid snowfall for some areas.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Though it will only last a day or two- this is some serious cold with some serious temp gradients that I don't think guidance will catch on until HRRR/RAP with 6-8 hours. (as far as squeezing out snow) Near 50F gradient from DSM to SW MN-

[Grizzcoat]

and looks these Wind Chills- ouch for even mid JAN---

[Tom]

12z GFS...

 

[Grizzcoat]

That's actually quite a step in the right direction (N and W) -- compared to previous runs but likely to little too late for IA folk.

eh, not too bad I guess.  Nothing major, but a solid snowfall for some areas.

 

 

[Niko]

6z and 12z guidance looks good! 

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian is just holding steady and not inching nw like some other models.  It has little if anything for Iowa.

[Hawkeye]

The UK is trending in the opposite direction.  It barely has a storm this morning.

 

[GDR]

Uk for the win

[bud2380]

Euro coming in stronger

[bud2380]

Looks a lot better for KC folks.  

[bud2380]

Doesn't get quite as far north this run, but qpf is increased in most areas.

 

[Niko]

Clinton and TOl_Weather are looking very good I think w this run!

[Clinton]

Looks a lot better for KC folks. 

Sure does, but snow below the 540 line does make me a little nervous.  Even though last year that worked out several times.

[Clinton]

Clinton and TOl_Weather are looking very good I think w this run!

6 in mby this run that would be great.  The 12z Euro and 12z ICON are very similar.

[bud2380]

Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s with some of this snowfall.  Obviously temps look to crash quickly once precip gets really going, but that will significantly cut into snow totals if that is the case.  

[Niko]

6 in mby this run that would be great.  The 12z Euro and 12z ICON are very similar.

Congrats bud! Hope ya score bigly w this and others as well.

[Tom]

12z GEFS...trending in the right direction...

 

 

[Niko]

Liking the trends today. Still have 2 days for some more changes (hoping for the better).

[Tom]

12z Euro...some big totals near the RN/SN line with temps hovering near freezing...N IL temps are primarily colder than 30F when the SN starts falling as temps drop into upper 20's/.

[Stacsh]

Looking good for those just south of my area.  Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one.  

[Niko]

Looking good for those just south of my area.  Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one.  

[MIKEKC]

EURO and ICON look great for K.C. and other parts of Missouri per the snowfall maps, but, if temps are 33-35, snowing during the day, you just can’t buy those amounts.

 

The most frustrating thing might be the fact that 6-8 hours after the slug of moisture, temps crash.

 

As a snow contractor, my hope is that it comes in faster Wednesday morning, say 3am and maybe the cold comes in fast enough tomorrow night to freeze up the slush and water on the pavement???

 

Nonetheless, trends are better today. Hopefully the data is 4 degrees too warm!!

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean trending better

 

[Clinton]

EC with a big jump in totals today due to the fact it's colder than the op.  Good trends!

[Tom]

EC with a big jump in totals today due to the fact it's colder than the op.  Good trends!

Yup, I was just gonna say...looking a lot better than just 24-48 hours ago...the King for the win???  This is prob the best set up for Chicago all season long and not having to deal with marginal temps, storm track, RN/SN line, etc...then again, we have seen dramatic shifts inside 3 days so I'm not getting to excited yet.  More importantly, it looks to stay cold post storm so anyone who does get snow will get to enjoy #realwinter for a couple days!  LOL

[jaster220]

Looking good for those just south of my area.  Jaster and Niko looks like you guys win this one, I won the last one.  

 

 

 

Don't worry, the office has already decided. WWA for 1-3"  (maybe we'll get a Warning next winter)

[Niko]

Don't worry, the office has already decided. WWA for 1-3"  (maybe we'll get a Warning next winter)

Story of this Winter amigo eh!

[MIKEKC]

Tom,

 

#realwinter for a couple days

 

Nobody will say NO! Come on!

 

#Trendcolder

[bud2380]

18z NAM not bad 

 

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

Closed mid level circulation now noted on water vapor pivoting
southward across southern California will take residence over
Arizona/northern Mexico during the early week period. This energy
will then accelerate northeast Tue night/Wednesday, the process
aided by ongoing height falls associated with strong shortwave
energy of north pacific origin. A piece of arctic energy shedding
off the mean polar low will immediately trail while digging into the
emerging eastward propagating mean trough. This pattern evolution
always challenging, owing to the inherent uncertainty with regard to
potential/degree of interaction between these features -
particularly prior to appropriate sampling of key northern stream
dynamics.

As it stands now, general consensus holds with enough separation
between pv features to maintain a more progressive, somewhat flatter
ejection of the lead energy. The projected trajectory positions
southeast Michigan favorably to witness a period of ascent tied to
some combination of mid level isentropic lift and deformation. The
underlying environment certainly lends increasing confidence for an
accumulating snowfall within the Wednesday night/Thursday period,
but with amounts still governed by sensitivity to movement in system
track and corresponding adjustments in magnitude/duration of forcing
and the temperature/moisture profile. Latest forecast calls for 2 to
4 inches, with these totals certainly subject to revision as the
event nears. Arctic frontal passage will then present a secondary
window for accumulation Thursday night. Arctic air firmly entrenched
for the Friday period, but residence time appears brief as upper
heights build quickly and temperatures moderate accordingly through
the upcoming weekend.

[jaster220]

k, perhaps my 1-3" was just an office jab

 

Official take this afternoon is a bit more bullish:

 

-- System snow expected from Wed Afternoon through Thurs

An upper trough stretches through the plains states on Wednesday
with both northern and southern stream waves noted. The waves are
moving out of Canada into the northern plains and through the
southern plains over Texas. These waves try to phase up a bit as
they move our direction, but never truly get in sync. As such, the
surface low does not reach deep levels as it moves through the
Great Lakes region. At its closest approach, there is a 999mb low
in both the operational GFS and ECMWF moving through southeast
Ohio Wednesday night. The heavier precipitation looks to miss our
area to the south, with the heaviest occurring in our area towards
I-94. The northern stream wave pushes and Arctic front through our
area on Thursday.

In terms of impacts we are looking at accumulating snow spreading
into the area Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night.
The snow will linger into Thursday, somewhat enhanced by the
Arctic Front. Temperatures plunge in the wake of the front on
Thursday, dropping into the teens by evening. We are expecting 2
to possibly 5 inches across the forecast area with the highest
totals occurring across the southern half of the forecast area,
I-96 to the south. The winds crank up on Thursday which should
create some blowing and drifting in the afternoon given the
falling temps and smaller flake size late. We are most likely
looking at an Advisory event centered on Wednesday night and
Thursday. Slippery road conditions will be the main impact, with
visibility concerns developing on Thursday.

 

The lack of proper phasing S of the north country is stunning this season. Not unlike 2011-12

[Clinton]

18z ICON holds

[Tom]

18z GFS...

 

[Clinton]

18z Euro

[Hawkeye]

18z Euro

 

That's an uptick for the nw edge vs 12z.  We just need to keep that trend going.

[Tom]

Some interesting weather going on in the valley of the sun...just spoke to my Mom and there was an intense cell that moved right over head...this ULL has some "umpff"

 

 

 

Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020

AZZ541-546>549-110215-
Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-
Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Rio Verde/Salt River AZ-
645 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARICOPA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
MST...

At 644 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Granite Reef Dam, or near Fountain Hills, moving
north at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Granite Reef Dam, McDowell Mountain
Park, Rio Verde, Falcon Field Airport and Fort McDowell.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Route 87 between mile markers 181 and 193.
AZ Route 202 between mile markers 16 and 24.

[Money]

NAM coming in more phased through 45

 

Snow shield father NW pretty strong

[FAR_Weather]

I like where I sit right now. It would take a very drastic shift over 48 hours to get me out of the snow. Looks like a high-end advisory here right now which.... with the way this season has gone, beggars can't be choosers.

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM

 

 

[Clinton]

00z NAM

 

 

That is getting alot of us involved.  Good run!

[Tom]

That is getting alot of us involved. Good run!

Go Big!

[Clinton]

3km NAM

[dubuque473]

Hope it jogs a bit NW.

[snowstorm83]

I'm ready for my dumping of 0.3" 

[Niko]

Do I see a phase......

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON and GFS both inched nw a bit.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

00z Canadian is expanded a bit nw on the west end, but sagged se on the east end.  It's a little stronger in general.