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00z UK

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Currently flying over the Quad Cities area. If the flight turbulence is any indication, you peeps downstream here are in for a decent storm. Nice convective look to the cloud tops. Good luck all.

4" in McPherson,ks at my parents be (my dad posted on Facebook)

Yes heavy snow, temp of 33 and nearly 2 inches already.  Very beautiful!

Posted Images

With the arctic frontal snows- I don't think the global models are handling it well if it all. The synoptic snow is a different story.  As I mentioned y-day; the frontal snows/post frontal will be better pegged by the CAM's and even DMX mentioned it in the PM AFD y-day.

 

With sufficient shear (discussed more below), there
is a brief window for horizontal convective roll development
Wednesday evening, which could be timed with the Wednesday PM
commute which could cause problems with rapidly changing
conditions along roadways. At this time there is still some
uncertainty in this development with limited moisture and a fairly
stable surface layer. Something to monitor in future updates as
we get into the range of CAMs.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe?

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NOAA:

There has been relative consistency among the 00Z model suite with
respect to the system set to impact the region Wed evening into
Thurs. The upper low now churning over the AZ/nrn Mexico border is
forecast to eject to the northeast as it lifts out of the Texas
panhandle on Wednesday as a northern stream short wave dives into the
central Rockies. Model solutions continue to suggest enough phase
separation between these two waves to cause the Texas panhandle wave
to accelerate northeast and become highly sheared. As the wave lifts
into the Ohio Valley Wed night, the mid level deformation will
overspread a good portion of Se Mi. The strongest mid level ascent is
expected to be focused a closer to the surface low track across Ohio
given the sheared nature of the system. Despite the region of mid
level dry air initially over srn Mi, this system will pick up
additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing decent moisture
advection into Se Mi. Current model solutions continue to indicate
some accumulating snow from this system Wed night. At this stage in
the forecast, the highest amounts of 2 to 5 in, are expected from
metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe?

 

 

Yep hoping the arctic front squeezes out moisture, because synoptic snows are looking too far south for here.   

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SnowfallNE3-2.jpeg?w=632

 

Since the storm is targeting major population areas and airport hubs in the region, travel disruptions could be substantial. Airline passengers should anticipate flight delays and cancellations stemming from the major hubs of O'Hare International, St. Louis International and Detroit Metro airports. Major cities, including Chicago, Detroit and Columbia, Missouri, are expected to be blanketed by a 3- to 6-inch snowfall. For these locations and many others, the weather system has the potential to be the biggest single snowstorm of the winter so far -- and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches is forecast along the storm's route in the Midwest with a few locations in western Texas picking up a tad more.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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00z EPS...

7" as a mean total South of me, wow.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Just can't buy a fully phased snowstorm this winter. Really lame qpf with this storm.

 

Yep, so why would it suddenly change? Idk, but I've not been invested for that very reason. LES has been minimal too, so thinking that the arctic blast will somehow redeem the failure of a phase is also laughable. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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CLE's AFD

 

Our next system begins to approach from the south on Wednesday. The

associated upper-level trough, currently over the southwest US and

northwest Mexico, is expected to traverse east across the lower

Great Plains on Wednesday and then accelerate towards the Ohio

Valley as a short wave trough. At the surface, this will result in

low pressure developing over southern Texas early Wednesday morning,

then moving northeast towards the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, likely

located over western Kentucky/Tennessee by 00 Thursday. Strong

isentropic lift will result in precipitation forming well ahead of

this system, with precipitation overspreading northern Ohio and

northwestern Pennsylvania between 18 UTC Wednesday and 00 UTC

Thursday. The thought right now is that the leading edge of

precipitation will begin as all snow with some pockets of rain/snow

mixing in. Less than an inch of snow is expected through Wednesday

evening.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley to western PA

Wednesday night. Expect precipitation to continue through the night.

Difficult portion of the forecast is the temperature profile across

the region. Every model has the rain/snow/mixed precipitation line

in slightly different locations through Wednesday night causing much

uncertainty to accumulations of snow and ice. Just know that the

Thursday morning commute will be impacted with a good bet that

portions of the region will be under a winter weather advisory.

 

Arctic cold front moves across the region on Thursday with all

locations changing to snow by the afternoon. There will be lake

effect snow but the very dry air of the arctic airmass and the

fairly quick arrival of the area of high pressure should limit snow

amounts. However the snow will be very light and fluffy and could

accumulate more than expected across NE OH and NW PA. We will need

to monitor the lake effect portion closely with an advisory likely

continuing across the snowbelt into Friday night.

Vs. DTX

 

There has been relative consistency among the 00Z model suite with

respect to the system set to impact the region Wed evening into

Thurs. The upper low now churning over the AZ/nrn Mexico border is

forecast to eject to the northeast as it lifts out of the Texas

panhandle on Wednesday as a northern stream short wave dives into the

central Rockies. Model solutions continue to suggest enough phase

separation between these two waves to cause the Texas panhandle wave

to accelerate northeast and become highly sheared. As the wave lifts

into the Ohio Valley Wed night, the mid level deformation will

overspread a good portion of Se Mi. The strongest mid level ascent is

expected to be focused a closer to the surface low track across Ohio

given the sheared nature of the system. Despite the region of mid

level dry air initially over srn Mi, this system will pick up

additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing decent moisture

advection into Se Mi. Current model solutions continue to indicate

some accumulating snow from this system Wed night. At this stage in

the forecast, the highest amounts of 2 to 5 in, are expected from

metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south.

 

The sheared/weakening nature of this initial wave will result in a

reservoir of deep layer moisture holding across the Great Lakes on

Thursday as an arctic front is driven across the state. A northern

stream wave, an extension of the polar low, is forecast to dive into

the western Great Lakes on Thursday, driving the arctic front across

the state. The remnant deep layer moisture, the potential for some

short wave features to ripple across the area in advance of the main

northern stream trough and enhanced boundary layer convergence along

the surface front will support good coverage of snow showers and

minor additional accumulations across the area Thurs. Steepening

lapse rates along the arctic front itself may also support some brief

but intense snowfall rates. The core of the arctic air (850mb temps

down around -21C) will extend across Se Mi on Friday, supporting high

temps only in the teens. The arctic airmass will be very

progressive, with a rapid warming trend set to take hold over the

weekend.

vs. IWX

 

Focus of the forecast remains on the midweek storm which will

bring accumulating snow to the area. As has been discussed in

previous forecast discussions, a cut-off low over the Four

Corners will start to rapidly eject to the NNE tonight into

Wednesday morning. During this same timeframe a trough is

forecast to sweep out of Saskatchewan and into the the northern

Plains. The lifting low will start to elongate while lifting

northwards and a broad surface low is forecast to slide northeast

along the Mississippi River Valley. This will help to bring

precipitation into the forecast area around midday. A pre-existing

wedge of dry air will likely delay precip reaching the ground

until the afternoon as evaporative cooling saturates the lower

levels. Thermal profiles continues to show that initial p-types

should be snow.

 

Models cross-sections between 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday show

the potential for snow bands capable of producing higher snowfall

rates generally south of SR-6. Strong Fgen from 850mb to 700mb,

with a secondary band around 600mb, is shown to be co-located

with strong omega within a fully saturated DGZ. Cross-sections

also show convective static instability for snow showers to tap

into. While this is a similar setup to Sunday`s snow, the

noticeable difference is the lack of a strong LLJ to fracture

dendrites. The core of the LLJ will be shunted south of the

forecast area. All of this supports a window of time where

snowfall could become heavy.

 

Surface low continues to lift northeast across the Ohio River

Valley Wednesday evening and early night hours. As the surface

low moves into the Ohio River Valley, WAA will help to bring an

850mb front into central Indiana. Models continue to hone in on

the northward placement of this front, which will have an impact

on snow amounts and p-type transitions.

 

As we move into the late night hours and Thursday morning, the

upper trough dropping across the northern Plains will start to

encroach on the area and bring a surge of Arctic air across the

upper Midwest and Lake Michigan. In response to the approaching

upper trough, the surface low will start to move further east and

bring the dry slot of the system into the far southeast portion

of the forecast area. Models soundings show the DGZ will struggle

to maintain saturation generally south of US-24 in OH and south of

US-30 in IN. This holds onto the possibility of a mixture of snow

and freezing rain overnight. By Thursday morning, the cold surge

will help to cool sufficiently to bring saturation back into the

DGZ and allow for light snow across the area.

God I love living on the edge of 3 different CWAs.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3km NAM better for Chicago and Michigan folks

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Thx bud. It's trying, isn't it?  This winter's maps have looked good going into an event, only to have actual totals compromised by unfavorable thermals. Case in point, the Euro consistently showed my county with a solid 3-ish inches for the Sunday event right up to game-time. Net score was only 1.2"  January 17-19th storm Euro (and others) kept ramping up til game-time with upwards of 9-10" via Kuchera. Net score was a very ZR compressed 5". Just the way of this very marginal winter. Everything has been marginal - Soil temps - 2m temps - 850's you name it, it's been marginal. I'm always riding a line too N, S, W.  Good luck down there tho. By comparison to "normals" I know you've actually done much better in your region. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The 06z Euro was pretty ugly.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 06z Euro was pretty ugly.

Not bad, just very South. I'm more worried about a North shift & this has no backing from other models atm.

Euro 2.png

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The GFS is sagging the nw edge back southeast, too.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Thx bud. It's trying, isn't it?  This winter's maps have looked good going into an event, only to have actual totals compromised by unfavorable thermals. Case in point, the Euro consistently showed my county with a solid 3-ish inches for the Sunday event right up to game-time. Net score was only 1.2"  January 17-19th storm Euro (and others) kept ramping up til game-time with upwards of 9-10" via Kuchera. Net score was a very ZR compressed 5". Just the way of this very marginal winter. Everything has been marginal - Soil temps - 2m temps - 850's you name it, it's been marginal. I'm always riding a line too N, S, W.  Good luck down there tho. By comparison to "normals" I know you've actually done much better in your region. 

Thanks and no doubt it's been tough to get big snows.  I just wish I could keep this artic air longer than 2 days.

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A 6-12 inch snow pack in this area would be great for Baltimore. This would reduce modification with the higher sun angels. Hope the system over performs. It's the only chance we got... Let'er rip...

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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12z UK

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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LOL @ 12z suite. I'm back to my usual 0.2-2" event. Next (yr)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Another storm with a tease and fade.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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You guys that far north are still in the game. Maybe not far north with this system, but it's February 11.  Let's give a little love to Ohio...

Not THAT part of Ohio though.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18z HRRR shows a rain/snow mix with temps in the upper 30’s in KC.

 

Not one model has K.C. 32 or under during the main snow tomorrow. Most show 33-36, snow during the day, going to be tough to accumulate. EURO is showing the same, more rain mixed in.

 

Dang thermals!!!

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I think its best to just go nowcast and see what the storm will do. Models cannot seem to get their act together.

 

As far as the Euro goes, I think its too far south (maybe a glitch occurred and it is not seeing something correctly) it should fix itself later tanite or tomorrow.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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18z HRRR shows a rain/snow mix with temps in the upper 30’s in KC.

 

Not one model has K.C. 32 or under during the main snow tomorrow. Most show 33-36, snow during the day, going to be tough to accumulate. EURO is showing the same, more rain mixed in.

 

Dang thermals!!!

Worth also noting that long range HRRR is a major outlier in thermals, and has been in previous storms as well. Toss it till tomorrow.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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