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2/12 - 2/14 Lower Lakes Cutter


Tom
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CAM will likely not show true until 8-10 hours out. If that. Do not put trust in these in the 12-18+ range. Do a detailed cross/check on these and it makes no sense why they are extended out so long. Much like much "guidance" - albeit temps are a little different than precip.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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CLE starting with an advisory, which is what I figured they'd do.

 

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central,
northeast and northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will likely start as snow
late Wednesday afternoon and early evening and may be of
moderate intensity at times in the evening. Then, a period of a
wintry mix with freezing rain is then likely later in the
evening and overnight. A change to all rain is possible south of
I-76 and east of I-71. Icing accumulations will be focused from
Mansfield to Akron and points south whereas the higher snowfall
will be north of there.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway, and
traffic conditions.
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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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18Z NAMily. Temps are about the same but the low is way South and stronger, and dare I say slower.

NAMNSTMW_prec_kuchsnow_054.png

NAMMW_prec_kuchsnow_066.png

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Thats about the best we could hope for given the temp profiles.

The best you could hope for. I need it to shift back to where it was on last night's 00Z runs but with the same temps.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Blizzard Warnings hoisted for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. What could have been...that’s all I’m gonna say...sigh

That's mostly for stuff already on the ground. Shows how crazy the Winter climate is up there.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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That's mostly for stuff already on the ground. Shows how crazy the Winter climate is up there.

 

P sure he knows that and meant if a true merge-phase was happening.  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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That's mostly for stuff already on the ground. Shows how crazy the Winter climate is up there.

Yup, I understand that and was just trying to suggest the potential this system would have been IF the timing of the Polar Jet and Southern Stream would have phased. This would have been a phenomenal storm. D**n +AO/NAO!
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21z SREF.  So far this evening the models have came in a little snowier for some.

1581660000-gt2yY6jSPYw.png

 

Yep. Last minute game-time "bump" sure would be a nice note to finish up this little snowy stretch on.  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z NAM Thru h51 getting me to a 3" threshold? 

 

20200212 0z nam h51 snowfall SLR.png

 

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:) ..always nice to be grazed S just a few days after being grazed N  :rolleyes:  :wacko:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Totals down on the 00Z suite. Wow, that has totally not happened 24 hours before every single storm this season.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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00z Euro

 

It increased a bit more toward the nw again.  At this point, I'd be happy with a couple inches.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This Lehs feature sliding down the lake late tonight into Thursday morning along the leading edge of the arctic front is going to be interesting.  I may have stay up late to see this happen.  All the meso scale models are showing this heavy band of SN.  Could be some very intense snowfall rates for a period.  Following this "wall of snow" the winds may have enough of an easterly flow producing convergence along the lake and potential potent lake plume.  I think the models are starting to sniff this LES set up.

1.gif

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Not sure what the results will be for the two interacting waves that merge over IA but the Arctic front is racing S much faster than expected as RAP and HRRR can't even get it right in 1 hr for surface temps and this from Grand Forks NWS --- "The cold front continues to race south much faster than expected. It should reach the Fargo-Moorhead area around 3 am, and the Wahpeton-Breckenridge area around 4 am. This will bring wind gusts to 50 mph and whiteout conditions, especially in rural areas."Tab1FileL.png?7e590d13869c9ba4fe14720b3e

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Grand Forks airport has had 3 consecutive hours with winds easily gusting over 50 mph-- 13" of snow on the ground = that would be awesome. Peak Gust 53KTs = 61mph. Gotta love the Northern Plains.

 

KGFK 120953Z AUTO 35036G50KT 1/4SM R35L/1600V2600FT -SN FZFG VV005 M17/M18 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 36053/0855 SLP121 P0004 T11671183 $
KGFK 120951Z AUTO 35036G46KT 1/4SM R35L/1600V2200FT -SN FZFG VV005 M17/M18 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 36053/0855 P0004 $
KGFK 120853Z AUTO 35034G48KT 1/4SM R35L/1400V4000FT -SN FZFG VV006 M13/M15 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0759 SLP100 P0000 60001 T11331150 53047 $
KGFK 120806Z AUTO 35029G49KT 1/4SM R35L/1800V2800FT -SN FZFG VV005 M11/M13 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 35049/0759 P0000 T11111128 $
KGFK 120748Z AUTO 36035G48KT 1/4SM R35L/1200V2200FT -SN FZFG BKN006 OVC020 M10/M12 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 36049/0733 SLP074 P0000 T11001117 $

 

KGFK 120553Z AUTO 25007KT 3SM -SN OVC029 M02/M05 A2963 RMK AO2 SNB02 SLP048 4/013 P0000 60000 T10171050 11011 21039 410111128 53002

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Clinton,

 

Where exactly are you? An hour or so SE of K.C.? Are you actually in Clinton, Mo? If so, I think you are in the best spot to get a very wet accumulation.

 

Temps are 35 here in the city and around 32-33 outside the city limits. Going to be tough to get pavement accums today but if we can get the snow to hang on through the evening, we might stack up a bit this evening.

 

Too bad we aren’t 25 degrees, this would be a 6-9 inch snow easily. Beautiful moisture surge.

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Whoa. Oh, Canada!

 

Yeah, that would be eerily similar to Vet's Day with the synoptic wave jack-zone, and LES jack-zone the following night! Too bad it's not the model of choice with any storm, lol. 

 

Meanwhile Euro looks like another headline FAIL around here. As a matter of fact, it looks pretty odd that GRR has headlines and DTX does not. Models either give all of SMI enough to warrant a WWA, or they don't give either side of the state enough at all. I smell bust. 1" of pixie dust incoming on top of my 2" snow pack. Lol @ snow-on-snow 2019-20 style

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yeah, that would be eerily similar to Vet's Day with the synoptic wave jack-zone, and LES jack-zone the following night! Too bad it's not the model of choice with any storm, lol. 

 

Meanwhile Euro looks like another headline FAIL around here. As a matter of fact, it looks pretty odd that GRR has headlines and DTX does not. Models either give all of SMI enough to warrant a WWA, or they don't give either side of the state enough at all. I smell bust. 1" of pixie dust incoming on top of my 2" snow pack. Lol @ snow-on-snow 2019-20 style

 

I lost interest in the "storm" 2 days ago.  I'm also shocked local mets are still calling for 2-4 with 5" possible near 94.  Bad info from GRR weather office.   NO way that happens.  In fact I  think it hardly snows up here, except a brief dusting with the front.   

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