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2020 Spring & Summer Discussion


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Thinking of Spring???  Some of you on here have already endured a taste of Spring in the south as Winter really never arrived, albeit, at times it did but quickly vanished.  Does that mean Spring is coming early this year??  Let's see what the models are suggesting as met Spring is knocking on our doorstep.

 

The JMA monthlies came in today and don't necessarily have a strong signal for any warmth or cold during the Spring season but more or less a normal Spring across the central CONUS.  March looks like it will have a continuation of the SER and western trough idea.  By the time we roll into April the southern ridge pops and the heat may build early and often as we head into the month of May.  Knowing the way this years LRC has developed, I'm almost certain we will see an early start to Summer esp for those down south and in the Plains as well as parts of the S MW.  I'm concerned of a delayed Spring for those up north which has been the pattern in recent years along with a very active/wet Spring overall for the majority of our Sub.  I'm anticipating several Severe Wx Outbreaks this Spring across the Sub and it should kick into high gear as we head into April/May.

 

March temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y202002.D0500_gl2.png

 

April...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y202002.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

May...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y202002.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

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The latest NMME for the month of March/April/May...the theme seems to be cool north, warm south and wet/active all across the board except for TX/OK members...drought forthcoming this year???

 

Taking a look at the drought monitor index and a lot of S TX is experiencing d1 & d2 level drought conditions...the 4 corners aren't doing well either and this is where both the JMA seasonal and NMME are suggesting the ridge to build early this Spring.  

 

 

current_usdm.png

 

 

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead1.png

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead2.png

 

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead2.png

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead3.png

 

 

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead3.png

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Looks like Texas is going to be dealing with a shut out in the rain department.

We're used to early springs, but it the rain we worry about.

 

Keep me informed on the long term guys. Hope to heaven we aren't going back into the drought cycle.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ready for severe season. Given state of pacific and record breaking AO, the years 1990 and 2007 seem to be the favored analogs.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Ready for severe season. Given state of pacific and record breaking AO, the years 1990 and 2007 seem to be the favored analogs.

I could see strong troughs plow into the building warmth/heat to the south that will ignite some good severe wx opportunities this year.

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Average temps and above avg precip?  I'd be happy with that.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Although this winter hasn't been on the severe cold side,  It has been cloudy wet and dreary.  With now 1 year old twins I am looking forward to getting out of the house and enjoying some nice weather.  Hoping this "Spring" (when is the last time we've had one in Michigan?) will provide a few warmer days and some stormy action in March/April before we inevitably switch to Summer in Mid-Late May.  

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Although this winter hasn't been on the severe cold side,  It has been cloudy wet and dreary.  With now 1 year old twins I am looking forward to getting out of the house and enjoying some nice weather.  Hoping this "Spring" (when is the last time we've had one in Michigan?) will provide a few warmer days and some stormy action in March/April before we inevitably switch to Summer in Mid-Late May.  

Did ya get any sleep at all? :lol:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Did ya get any sleep at all? :lol:

 

Oh my god no.  It's impossible.  1 always wakes up the other.  If 1 sleeps through the night, the other one doesn't.  But it's not terrible.  They need to get out of the house just like everyone else. 

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Oh my god no.  It's impossible.  1 always wakes up the other.  If 1 sleeps through the night, the other one doesn't.  But it's not terrible.  They need to get out of the house just like everyone else. 

:D

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Oh my god no.  It's impossible.  1 always wakes up the other.  If 1 sleeps through the night, the other one doesn't.  But it's not terrible.  They need to get out of the house just like everyone else. 

 

Yep, 18 mos without a full night's rest when I had my twin boys. That was 20 yrs ago. No way I could do that today!  :lol:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Busy Hurricane season out of the GOM???  We have had plenty of storms tracking out of the GOM this year and there are a few systems that have cycled through the NE GOM that have my attention.  Could be one of the more destructive seasons for the U.S.  

 

 

 

TCfreqa_fcst.png

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Busy Hurricane season out of the GOM??? We have had plenty of storms tracking out of the GOM this year and there are a few systems that have cycled through the NE GOM that have my attention. Could be one of the more destructive seasons for the U.S.

 

 

 

TCfreqa_fcst.png

Sadly, this actually has a lot of merit based on pattern recognition skills. I hate that for the gulf states if it verifies.

 

Would also suggest a lot of cold fronts based on in close hurricane development history.

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Sadly, this actually has a lot of merit based on pattern recognition skills. I hate that for the gulf states if it verifies.

 

Would also suggest a lot of cold fronts based on in close hurricane development history.

Wouldn’t the cooling waters in the central PAC also favor in close development and Long tracked storms in the Atlantic? I’m not really a Hurricane guru but I remember 2007 was a big year or was it 2008 when a La Niña was forming.
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Busy Hurricane season out of the GOM???  We have had plenty of storms tracking out of the GOM this year and there are a few systems that have cycled through the NE GOM that have my attention.  Could be one of the more destructive seasons for the U.S.  

 

 

 

TCfreqa_fcst.png

 

That map shows precisely the opposite of what you're saying. Plus an early analog set of 1967, 2013 and 2014 suggests we'd be lucky to see 10 storms in the atlantic. All of those years were epic snoozers.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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That map shows precisely the opposite of what you're saying. Plus an early analog set of 1967, 2013 and 2014 suggests we'd be lucky to see 10 storms in the atlantic. All of those years were epic snoozers.

I had the impression that the map was suggesting rising motion...my bad...

 

Edit: Now that I looked deeper into this map, I totally missed reading the title on the top suggesting what colors are the storm tracks.  Must have been the lack of coffee!

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Why yes, just last week my dear friend lost their home to 6 inches of snow, very sad. The child ended up crippled, the dog got 2019 nCov, spread it to the rest of the family that wasn't crushed in the rubble, Absolutely horrible. Hopefully, we can figure out how to manipulate weather so every day is full of sunshine and rainbows.

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That map shows precisely the opposite of what you're saying. Plus an early analog set of 1967, 2013 and 2014 suggests we'd be lucky to see 10 storms in the atlantic. All of those years were epic snoozers.

 

Thx for clearing that up. I'm no follower of tropical and had never seen a graphic like that, but was pretty sure it was how you say, opposite of what Tom had said. Good thing we all have some area of expertise or specialty so we can learn from each other.  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Sparky--

 

Have ya ever seen a tornado out there (perhaps nearby or even closeby) where you live. I am thinking yr area lies in the path of the "Tornado Alley", no?!

Yes Just last May I watched two tornadoes develop! The high end EF1 tornado on May 24 dropped down 2 miles north of me and ended on the south side of Ia. City. The other one was a very brief weak EF0 on May 29 that dropped down on my cousins farmland around 3 miles to my sw. ( I had shared a few photos of those storms last year so I think you still could go back and look them up) Also saw other funnels over the years plus the nighttime EF2 tornado that hit downtown Iowa City in April 2007 I think it was. Couldn't see that one well as it was dark.

I'm not necessarily in tornado alley though an area nw of my area near Waterloo may be in a small tornado alley according to fairly recent history where they had several devastating EF5 tornadoes! I'm still reading Terry Swailes book I recently got and that 2008 EF5 that creamed Parkersburg was pretty close to where James lives. I wanted to ask him and nows a good time..... James, did you actually see that tornado? Also I know there was a horrific hail storm near James area a number of years ago I think. I probably could look it up .

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Yes Just last May I watched two tornadoes develop! The high end EF1 tornado on May 24 dropped down 2 miles north of me and ended on the south side of Ia. City. The other one was a very brief weak EF0 on May 29 that dropped down on my cousins farmland around 3 miles to my sw. ( I had shared a few photos of those storms last year so I think you still could go back and look them up) Also saw other funnels over the years plus the nighttime EF2 tornado that hit downtown Iowa City in April 2007 I think it was. Couldn't see that one well as it was dark.

I'm not necessarily in tornado alley though an area nw of my area near Waterloo may be in a small tornado alley according to fairly recent history where they had several devastating EF5 tornadoes! I'm still reading Terry Swailes book I recently got and that 2008 EF5 that creamed Parkersburg was pretty close to where James lives. I wanted to ask him and nows a good time..... James, did you actually see that tornado? Also I know there was a horrific hail storm near James area a number of years ago I think. I probably could look it up .

Cool stuff. The only time I saw a tornado was back in Long Island, NY, years ago. It was weak, trying to develop, but dissipated in the air. I was not all that far away from it. No damage, if I remember correctly had occurred.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Cool stuff. The only time I saw a tornado was back in Long Island, NY, years ago. It was weak, trying to develop, but dissipated in the air. I was not all that far away from it. No damage, if I remember correctly had occurred.

Last year was very unusual for me seeing 2 tornadoes in the same year only a few days apart!

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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The only funnel cloud I've ever seen was late last summer.  It was wnw of Cedar Rapids and I saw it from my home in town.  There was a low-end nighttime tornado a couple years ago that passed within a mile of my home.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I've been lucky enough to see 35-40 tornadoes in my lifetime, but I've been chasing since 2008.

Yeah chasing will make a big difference. I never chased and everything I saw was from my home.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Wouldn’t the cooling waters in the central PAC also favor in close development and Long tracked storms in the Atlantic? I’m not really a Hurricane guru but I remember 2007 was a big year or was it 2008 when a La Niña was forming.

It was 2008. Bad hurricane year. Busy over GOM, N. LA and even tropical depressions over AR if I recall. Really thinking after a little more thought to blend 2008 and maybe a splash of 2014 and call it a summer forecast. It's still a bit early though. We know a lot can change in a month or 2.

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It was 2008. Bad hurricane year. Busy over GOM, N. LA and even tropical depressions over AR if I recall. Really thinking after a little more thought to blend 2008 and maybe a splash of 2014 and call it a summer forecast. It's still a bit early though. We know a lot can change in a month or 2.

Thanks for the clarity...

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Actually, 1990 is looking like a near perfect analog right now. One of the best I have seen. Record breaking AO continues to persist and AAM continues to build up as a result. Both of these are reminiscent of February 1990 monthly trends. Other notable analogs are March 1961 and March 1976. As far as large scale features, particularly with regard to AAM, it's going to have to come crashing down at some point, and when it does, should result in a rather impressive jet extension which would lead to a large, broad trough in the western half of the country. I think the CFS and Euro long range ensembles are picking up on this signal and handling it well. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd go for AA severe activity through March, with OK/TX through the lower Ohio valley being the favored region. Can't really see sustained activity any further north than that due to the calendar date and less than impressive SER. The SER is there, don't get me wrong, but for areas further north, I'd like to see it flex a bit more than currently modelled.

 

The only fly in the ointment I see on the analog list is 2002, which also featured a similar evolution to February 1990 and was a dud for severe weather in the spring overall. But the rest of the analog list is sauced up and combined with long range forecasting models, provides reason to be optimistic for early season severe weather. Remains to be seen how this translates to May/June. Not a real strong signal either way there yet.

 

I meant to post this a few days ago but forgot. Finally got around to doing it because uploading images to this site is a complete and absolute pita. 

 

yAkSr4w.png

7qeR807.pnguEIbYvD.jpgrl3AiAq.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Actually, 1990 is looking like a near perfect analog right now. One of the best I have seen. Record breaking AO continues to persist and AAM continues to build up as a result. Both of these are reminiscent of February 1990 monthly trends. Other notable analogs are March 1961 and March 1976. As far as large scale features, particularly with regard to AAM, it's going to have to come crashing down at some point, and when it does, should result in a rather impressive jet extension which would lead to a large, broad trough in the western half of the country. I think the CFS and Euro long range ensembles are picking up on this signal and handling it well. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd go for AA severe activity through March, with OK/TX through the lower Ohio valley being the favored region. Can't really see sustained activity any further north than that due to the calendar date and less than impressive SER. The SER is there, don't get me wrong, but for areas further north, I'd like to see it flex a bit more than currently modelled.

 

The only fly in the ointment I see on the analog list is 2002, which also featured a similar evolution to February 1990 and was a dud for severe weather in the spring overall. But the rest of the analog list is sauced up and combined with long range forecasting models, provides reason to be optimistic for early season severe weather. Remains to be seen how this translates to May/June. Not a real strong signal either way there yet.

 

I meant to post this a few days ago but forgot. Finally got around to doing it because uploading images to this site is a complete and absolute pita.

 

yAkSr4w.png

7qeR807.pnguEIbYvD.jpgrl3AiAq.png

Well written. Enjoyed your thoughts.

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Looking forward to severe weather. :D

Mmmm, not so fast. The last big storm we had I had a monster lightning bolt with a boatload of volts strike about 1/8 mi from the house. Deafening, and the house shook like it was made of match sticks. Mm-nope. Not ready for that. Certainly don't want hail. Money's tight enough.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Wow....I mean, how often does that happen. Probably low probability for sure.

I stood on my porch as my house passed between two funnel clouds strengthening. They continues East and hit downtown Ft. Worth and downtown Arlington. They were big.

 

I've never counted but I think I've likely seen more than anyone on the forum. If only by virtue of age and location. My first memory is when I was 5 or 6.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Mmmm, not so fast. The last big storm we had I had a monster lightning bolt with a boatload of volts strike about 1/8 mi from the house. Deafening, and the house shook like it was made of match sticks. Mm-nope. Not ready for that. Certainly don't want hail. Money's tight enough.

Wow.....that must have been a nasty stormcell.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I stood on my porch as my house passed between two funnel clouds strengthening. They continues East and hit downtown Ft. Worth and downtown Arlington. They were big.

 

I've never counted but I think I've likely seen more than anyone on the forum. If only by virtue of age and location. My first memory is when I was 5 or 6.

Fun to experience one up close, but also dangerous at the same time.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Fun to experience one up close, but also dangerous at the same time.

It is, but you don't have a choice when they form SW of you.  I've stood in my yard and looked straight up into 2 of them.

Talk about awe inspiring.  To think they form in the atmosphere and become this energetic vortex that has a life (and mind) of its own. 

They're also beautiful on the inside - this swirling mass of color and texture. Then the sound and eerie pressure hit you.

Creepy city !

 

The lightning bolt a few weeks ago was just gob smacking beautiful and scary as hell.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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For anyone who is interested the average 1st 50° (we have already have had 2) at Grand Rapids is February 8th the range has been from January 1st 2011 to the latest on April 4th 1912. For 55 the average first one is on February 22nd with the range from January 1st 2011 to the latest on April 8th 1972 and for 60 the average is March 14 with a range of January 4th 1997 to the latest of April 17 1975.

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It is, but you don't have a choice when they form SW of you.  I've stood in my yard and looked straight up into 2 of them.

Talk about awe inspiring.  To think they form in the atmosphere and become this energetic vortex that has a life (and mind) of its own. 

They're also beautiful on the inside - this swirling mass of color and texture. Then the sound and eerie pressure hit you.

Creepy city !

 

The lightning bolt a few weeks ago was just gob smacking beautiful and scary as hell.

Come to think of it, I cannot wait for severe weather now. You got me all hyped up. :lol:

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Since no March thread and since March is technically MET Spring posting this here but that is one cold run of the 18Z GFS (probably wrong esp with +AO) but loads of Arctic air-- below zero into S.IA on March 6th??? gfs_T2m_ncus_56.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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KC Royals played their first spring training game today (and lost)...spring and summer are just around the corner! :)

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
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I hope this isn't one of those springs when we have to wait until May to see a thunderstorm.  That can happen if we get stuck in a cool pattern with lows passing south.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With spring now just around the corner one attention now turns towards spring and just what will spring 2020 bring? Well as luck would have it as we head into March and spring there are now indications that the positive NAO that has brought the eastern US a mild winter will now flip to a more negative NAO and guess what? That change could happen around mid March. What will that mean? Beware of the Ides of March. I will say no more.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The JMA seasonal came out the other day and suggests a near normal April and May for the most part and quite wet

 

April temps/precip...

 

Y202003.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y202003.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

May temps/precip...

 

Y202003.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

Y202003.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

 

As we open Summer, it continues with the same theme....wet heartland/ag belt region...

 

 

 

 

Y202003.D0700_gl0.png

Y202003.D0700_gl2.png

1.png

2.png

3.png

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