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2020 Spring & Summer Discussion


Tom

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Fun to experience one up close, but also dangerous at the same time.

It is, but you don't have a choice when they form SW of you.  I've stood in my yard and looked straight up into 2 of them.

Talk about awe inspiring.  To think they form in the atmosphere and become this energetic vortex that has a life (and mind) of its own. 

They're also beautiful on the inside - this swirling mass of color and texture. Then the sound and eerie pressure hit you.

Creepy city !

 

The lightning bolt a few weeks ago was just gob smacking beautiful and scary as hell.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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For anyone who is interested the average 1st 50° (we have already have had 2) at Grand Rapids is February 8th the range has been from January 1st 2011 to the latest on April 4th 1912. For 55 the average first one is on February 22nd with the range from January 1st 2011 to the latest on April 8th 1972 and for 60 the average is March 14 with a range of January 4th 1997 to the latest of April 17 1975.

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It is, but you don't have a choice when they form SW of you.  I've stood in my yard and looked straight up into 2 of them.

Talk about awe inspiring.  To think they form in the atmosphere and become this energetic vortex that has a life (and mind) of its own. 

They're also beautiful on the inside - this swirling mass of color and texture. Then the sound and eerie pressure hit you.

Creepy city !

 

The lightning bolt a few weeks ago was just gob smacking beautiful and scary as hell.

Come to think of it, I cannot wait for severe weather now. You got me all hyped up. :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Since no March thread and since March is technically MET Spring posting this here but that is one cold run of the 18Z GFS (probably wrong esp with +AO) but loads of Arctic air-- below zero into S.IA on March 6th??? gfs_T2m_ncus_56.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I hope this isn't one of those springs when we have to wait until May to see a thunderstorm.  That can happen if we get stuck in a cool pattern with lows passing south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With spring now just around the corner one attention now turns towards spring and just what will spring 2020 bring? Well as luck would have it as we head into March and spring there are now indications that the positive NAO that has brought the eastern US a mild winter will now flip to a more negative NAO and guess what? That change could happen around mid March. What will that mean? Beware of the Ides of March. I will say no more.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The JMA seasonal came out the other day and suggests a near normal April and May for the most part and quite wet

 

April temps/precip...

 

Y202003.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y202003.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

May temps/precip...

 

Y202003.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

Y202003.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

 

As we open Summer, it continues with the same theme....wet heartland/ag belt region...

 

 

 

 

Y202003.D0700_gl0.png

Y202003.D0700_gl2.png

1.png

2.png

3.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Based off of the current SST pattern, TTB's Top 5 Analogs suggest a busy season for the Gulf and SE U.S.  There are parts of the LRC's pattern that highlight the NE GOM to be a Hot Spot this Summer.  I will be keeping an eye out for a couple big storms in the GOM this year.

 

 

 

TCfreqa_anl.png

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  • 3 weeks later...

Not seeing any trees or flowers bloom here yet and w the colder weather coming, looks like this barelook can be dragged on til mid April.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The latest Euro Seasonal suggesting a pool of normal temps across the heartland...hopefully a banner growing season but if it rains quite a bit it could really impact our farmers.  The CFSv2 is showing something similar and centering a mean 500mb trough over the central CONUS.

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_namer_2.png

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_namer_2.png

 

 

 

1.png

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Massive pool of colder waters percolating in the PAC...La Nina is coming on...matter of time before it makes its way to the surface...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

So a CP Nino "lag" style summer followed by a building Nina late summer/autumn. I like.

 

Dry risks in the north central CONUS Mid and late summer to early fall are probably a fair forecast (around 80% sure). A lot of volatility in edge areas of our sub seems the safe bet at the moment.

 

Drop in PDO values and longer term changes in the overall AO in and on the shoulders of the cold seasons recently have given me good cause to back a longer term pattern shift throughout the rest of the year to weather that favors your more typical style -TNH, -PDO/PNA/-EPO, -AO, neutral trending negative through course of late summer NAO, and Neg ENSO.

 

A wholesale N. Hem pattern shift pretty much.

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It certainly wont feel like Spring this week. BRRRRRR!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Seems to be April's new normal.

:wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The JMA seasonal came out last weekend and it is suggesting a common theme across our Sub Forum....wet/active and near normal temps....

 

May...

 

Y202004.D0600_gl2.png

 

Y202004.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

 

June...

 

Y202004.D0600_gl2.png

Y202004.D0600_gl0.png

 

July...

 

Y202004.D0600_gl2.png

 

Y202004.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

By July, the La Nina starting to take shape across the equatorial PAC...

 

 

Y202004.D0600_gls.png

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A majority of the models are beginning to suggest a very busy hurricane season, but esp in the GOM where "home brewed" storms may be common.  Unfortunately, those near the Gulf may need to be paying close attention this year.  

 

Ben Noll has some really neat maps and the ECMWF/UKMET combo is one of the super blend models that does rather well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low wind shear in the GOM raises some eye brows that's for sure....in combination of the LRC, this year will likely be a busy one....

 

 

 

 

1.jpg

2.jpg

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During this upcoming Summer, I am being hopeful that covid-19 cases will be bated, that way people can go about w their travelings. I also want to fly to Greece and other parts of Europe, so fingers crossed!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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For anyone who likes to use analog year for a long range guess Accuweather came out with their summer guess and in that guess they use the years 2005,2013,1959,2016,2018,2009 and 2007. They are putting extra  emphasis on 2013. Of the obove summers some were warm and some were cool with 2009 much cooler than average. In their guess they are leaning towards a cool summer to our west and a warm summer to our east. BUT remember how their winter guess turned out. 

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Man, I simply cannot wait for a real, toasty heatwave to hit my area. High dews, humidity, temps in the 100s for highs and nighttime lows in the 80s w hazy skies and from time to time severe t'stms breaking out in the afternoon hours, followed by clear skies and muggy conditions for the remainder of the nite. Also, have my AC running. I really like to feel the disparity from these 2 airmasses (Cool air inside my house and hot outside).

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Are 70s or near 70F temps looming for the upcoming weekend??!! Stay tuned SEMI!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'll take it! Hopefully the Euro is wrong for the following week though...looks cold.

Yep, I saw it. Highs looking to be in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Some frost advisories could be posted.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Does it have a precip outlook? 

Its rather dry out west and wetter more towards the MW/GL's/OHV...I was lazy this morning posting the individual months of June/July/Aug.  There wasn't a seasonal map of the precip outlook only month by month.

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May 8 2020

Yesterday was a historical cold day across Michigan. While no new records were set it was a top 5 coldest May 8th an many locations. Here at Grand Rapids the high of 44° is the 2nd coldest maximum for the date. And the low of 29° is the 3rd coldest low. (for today May 9th the low of 26 is the 2nd coldest low for May 9th) At Muskegon the yesterdays high of 45 is the 5th coldest maximum and the low of 27 is the 2nd coldest low. To the east at Lansing were records go all the way back to 1963 the high of 45 and the low of 27 are good for the 4th coldest. On the east side of the state the Detroit high of 46 was there 3rd coldest maximum and there low of 31 is the 2nd coldest low. At Flint the high of 45 is their 2nd coldest. The low there of 31 did not make the top 10. At Saginaw the high of 45 is the 2nd coldest maximum and the low of 30 is good for the 5th coldest low. Up north at Alpena the high of 39 is the 2nd coldest maximum. Their low was not in the top ten. And at the Sault the high of 36 was there 3rd coldest maximum and the low of 27 was their 7th coldest low. To add insult all locations also set records for snow fall and while all but the Sault were just a trace the Sault had 0.2” of snow fall.

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Well, the JMA seasonal came in yesterday and suggest a normal summer on the way with plenty of precip.  No real strong signal for cold or heat which leads me to believe that when the heat  dome does fire up at times this Summer it will be followed by longer cool spells which keeps it balanced and very active.  Should be a fun summer tracking severe weather IMHO.

 

Temp...

 

Y202005.D0600_gl2.png

 

Precip...

 

Y202005.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

 

The developing La Nina looks more east-based compared to the Euro's seasonal and the CFSv2 during the Summer months...

 

 

Y202005.D0600_gls.png

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Naxos, Greece

 

AHHHhhhhhhhh........NO place like Greece!!

best-greek-beaches-plaka-naxos.jpg

 

best-greek-beaches-myrtos-kefalonia.jpg

 

best-greek-beaches-lindos-rhodes.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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