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2020 Spring & Summer Discussion


Tom

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hello Meteorological "Summer." :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Last nite checked out planets Jupiter and Saturn as the moon was rising. Cool stuff. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What does the JMA seasonal have to say for the rest of Summer???  The general theme is normal temps and precip with the exception for the southern tier of our Sub that looks wetter than average and a fast start to the Monsoon across the 4 corners where they need it.  There is a growing drought in this region so any rains will be welcomed.

 

July...

 

Y202006.D1000_gl2.png

 

Y202006.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

Aug...

 

Y202006.D1000_gl2.png

 

 

Y202006.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

The 500mb pattern replaces the western trough with a ridge next month and into August across the PAC NW which would generally produce a NW Flow.  Might have to deal with a pattern the produces "ridge riders" or long-lived MCS's mid/late Summer.

 

 

The SST's are generally warm in the N PAC and substantially colder across the eastern central PAC...3-month mean below.

 

Y202006.D1000_gls.png

 

Interestingly, looking into the 1st month of met Fall, the 500mb resembles one of rising heights across N.A. and could keep the Hurricane season active out of the GOM/ATL/E PAC.  The SE U.S. is one of the LRC's hot spots so I wouldn't be surprised to see some big hits down there to finish off the season.  Seem's like a theme in recent years where hurricanes track along the SE coastline.

 

Y202006.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...

 

Y202006.D1000_gl2.png

1.png

2.png

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Summer arrives this upcoming weekend. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Agreed, but this nice time of the year is flying by to fast!

Yep...too fast!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

This is turning out to be a HOT Summer. Average 90 degree days is 12X. We will surpass that by next week and there is plenty of Summer left.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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  • 2 weeks later...

What do the climate models have to say for the final month of met Summer???  It may be fair to say that the hottest part of our Summer pattern may be during this next week or so for the northern and eastern Sub based off of the signals I'm seeing right now.  It may be reasonable to say that our Hot pattern that has remained in place during the opening half of July for nearly all of us on here may be shifting farther south and west in due time.  The EPO/WPO and high lat blocking are showing signs that the mean ridge will shift farther west resulting in a consistent NW Flow pattern.  I remain steadfast that the dry and hot conditions may feedback into those across KS/OK/TX.  

 

 

Here is what the CFSv2 is showing at this time...clear trend for a VERY wet/active pattern for the aforementioned members in this Sub.

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202008.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202008.gif

 

 

 

 

What about the JMA and Euro???    Well, the JMA is also seeing the ridge developing across the western part of the CONUS resulting near normal temps for the eastern Sub.  The Euro looks similar to the CFSv2 with a pocket of cooler temps poking into the Upper MW.  This may shift farther south next run IMO.

 

 

Temps..

 

Y202007.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

Look at that SST pattern off the JMA...I'm seeing a clear signal off all the models for a stout NE PAC warm BLOB and a La Nina in full force.

 

 

Y202007.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Are you in the camp of more Heat or would you rather slowly start to shift into Autumn???  I believe we still have plenty of warmth to come this month but in due time we will be seeing a lot of CF's starting to resemble an early Autumn pattern heading into mid/late August.  IF the CFSv2 is right, the only way you get such a WET pattern is to have frontal boundaries battling the heat/humidity up from the GOM.  I don't know about you, but I'm ready to see more Boomers this month into August followed by some chill in the air like we're seeing today.

 

 

 

1.gif

2.gif

4.png

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This Summer will definitely turn out to be hotter than last year, that is for sure. Summer 2019, number of times that Dtw hit 90 or better was 10X (btw, average is 12X) so, surpassed last years already. Currently 11X. Now, going for the record, which is 17X, the most 90 Degree days in the month of July. Looking very likely to be broken. W a heatwave coming by weeks end, it will be a 6 day stretch of 90s, so looks like a record will be set soon.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Also, I have noticed it getting darker sooner now. B4 ya know it, Winter Outlooks will be out. Once August sets in, then, it is basically a count down towards Meteorological Autumn.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Last nights Euro Weeklies have really flipped from the "Blow Torch" pattern heading into the month of August.  In fact, it's trying to establish a "cool pool" smack dab in the middle of the nation, centered near the MW ag belt where it had been illustrating intense heat to persist in recent weeks.  I'm starting to wonder if that monster NE PAC "Warm Blob" is having any effect towards the North American wx pattern.

 

The maps below show the 30-day temp/precip anomalies for the month of August and it paints a much better picture for our farmers.

1.png

2.png

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  • 1 month later...

Despite spending only 1 full month of met Summer in Chicago this season, I, to, shared in the records that were being broken continuously out here in the "valley of the sun".  With that being said, Chicago will go down as having one of the hottest summers on record in over 150 years!  #2020SummerSizzle

 

 

1.jpg

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