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2020 Spring & Summer Discussion


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Based off of the current SST pattern, TTB's Top 5 Analogs suggest a busy season for the Gulf and SE U.S.  There are parts of the LRC's pattern that highlight the NE GOM to be a Hot Spot this Summer.  I will be keeping an eye out for a couple big storms in the GOM this year.

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Trees and shrubs here are beginning to leaf out and bud.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The latest Euro Seasonal suggesting a pool of normal temps across the heartland...hopefully a banner growing season but if it rains quite a bit it could really impact our farmers.  The CFSv2 is showing something similar and centering a mean 500mb trough over the central CONUS.

 

 

 

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cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_namer_2.png

 

 

 

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The latest NMME model is suggesting an active GOM and highlights the NE GOM for a hot spot which is exactly where my earlier thoughts were of seeing at least 2 strong tropical systems this season.

 

 

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Massive pool of colder waters percolating in the PAC...La Nina is coming on...matter of time before it makes its way to the surface...

 

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So a CP Nino "lag" style summer followed by a building Nina late summer/autumn. I like.

 

Dry risks in the north central CONUS Mid and late summer to early fall are probably a fair forecast (around 80% sure). A lot of volatility in edge areas of our sub seems the safe bet at the moment.

 

Drop in PDO values and longer term changes in the overall AO in and on the shoulders of the cold seasons recently have given me good cause to back a longer term pattern shift throughout the rest of the year to weather that favors your more typical style -TNH, -PDO/PNA/-EPO, -AO, neutral trending negative through course of late summer NAO, and Neg ENSO.

 

A wholesale N. Hem pattern shift pretty much.

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It certainly wont feel like Spring this week. BRRRRRR!!

Seems to be April's new normal.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The JMA seasonal came out last weekend and it is suggesting a common theme across our Sub Forum....wet/active and near normal temps....

 

May...

 

Y202004.D0600_gl2.png

 

Y202004.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

 

June...

 

Y202004.D0600_gl2.png

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July...

 

Y202004.D0600_gl2.png

 

Y202004.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

By July, the La Nina starting to take shape across the equatorial PAC...

 

 

Y202004.D0600_gls.png

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A majority of the models are beginning to suggest a very busy hurricane season, but esp in the GOM where "home brewed" storms may be common.  Unfortunately, those near the Gulf may need to be paying close attention this year.  

 

Ben Noll has some really neat maps and the ECMWF/UKMET combo is one of the super blend models that does rather well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low wind shear in the GOM raises some eye brows that's for sure....in combination of the LRC, this year will likely be a busy one....

 

 

 

 

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During this upcoming Summer, I am being hopeful that covid-19 cases will be bated, that way people can go about w their travelings. I also want to fly to Greece and other parts of Europe, so fingers crossed!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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For anyone who likes to use analog year for a long range guess Accuweather came out with their summer guess and in that guess they use the years 2005,2013,1959,2016,2018,2009 and 2007. They are putting extra  emphasis on 2013. Of the obove summers some were warm and some were cool with 2009 much cooler than average. In their guess they are leaning towards a cool summer to our west and a warm summer to our east. BUT remember how their winter guess turned out. 

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Man, I simply cannot wait for a real, toasty heatwave to hit my area. High dews, humidity, temps in the 100s for highs and nighttime lows in the 80s w hazy skies and from time to time severe t'stms breaking out in the afternoon hours, followed by clear skies and muggy conditions for the remainder of the nite. Also, have my AC running. I really like to feel the disparity from these 2 airmasses (Cool air inside my house and hot outside).

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I'll take it! Hopefully the Euro is wrong for the following week though...looks cold.

Yep, I saw it. Highs looking to be in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Some frost advisories could be posted.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Does it have a precip outlook? 

Its rather dry out west and wetter more towards the MW/GL's/OHV...I was lazy this morning posting the individual months of June/July/Aug.  There wasn't a seasonal map of the precip outlook only month by month.

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This is quite an impressive subsurface cold pool making its way to the surface slowly but surely as we begin to see the light of the developing La Nina over the summer.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

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May 8 2020

Yesterday was a historical cold day across Michigan. While no new records were set it was a top 5 coldest May 8th an many locations. Here at Grand Rapids the high of 44° is the 2nd coldest maximum for the date. And the low of 29° is the 3rd coldest low. (for today May 9th the low of 26 is the 2nd coldest low for May 9th) At Muskegon the yesterdays high of 45 is the 5th coldest maximum and the low of 27 is the 2nd coldest low. To the east at Lansing were records go all the way back to 1963 the high of 45 and the low of 27 are good for the 4th coldest. On the east side of the state the Detroit high of 46 was there 3rd coldest maximum and there low of 31 is the 2nd coldest low. At Flint the high of 45 is their 2nd coldest. The low there of 31 did not make the top 10. At Saginaw the high of 45 is the 2nd coldest maximum and the low of 30 is good for the 5th coldest low. Up north at Alpena the high of 39 is the 2nd coldest maximum. Their low was not in the top ten. And at the Sault the high of 36 was there 3rd coldest maximum and the low of 27 was their 7th coldest low. To add insult all locations also set records for snow fall and while all but the Sault were just a trace the Sault had 0.2” of snow fall.

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Well, the JMA seasonal came in yesterday and suggest a normal summer on the way with plenty of precip.  No real strong signal for cold or heat which leads me to believe that when the heat  dome does fire up at times this Summer it will be followed by longer cool spells which keeps it balanced and very active.  Should be a fun summer tracking severe weather IMHO.

 

Temp...

 

Y202005.D0600_gl2.png

 

Precip...

 

Y202005.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

 

The developing La Nina looks more east-based compared to the Euro's seasonal and the CFSv2 during the Summer months...

 

 

Y202005.D0600_gls.png

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Here are the 500mb maps for each individual month...I guess one would say there is a big signal for ridging along the west coast of North America and into Canada.

 

 

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What does the JMA seasonal have to say for the rest of Summer???  The general theme is normal temps and precip with the exception for the southern tier of our Sub that looks wetter than average and a fast start to the Monsoon across the 4 corners where they need it.  There is a growing drought in this region so any rains will be welcomed.

 

July...

 

Y202006.D1000_gl2.png

 

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Aug...

 

Y202006.D1000_gl2.png

 

 

Y202006.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

The 500mb pattern replaces the western trough with a ridge next month and into August across the PAC NW which would generally produce a NW Flow.  Might have to deal with a pattern the produces "ridge riders" or long-lived MCS's mid/late Summer.

 

 

The SST's are generally warm in the N PAC and substantially colder across the eastern central PAC...3-month mean below.

 

Y202006.D1000_gls.png

 

Interestingly, looking into the 1st month of met Fall, the 500mb resembles one of rising heights across N.A. and could keep the Hurricane season active out of the GOM/ATL/E PAC.  The SE U.S. is one of the LRC's hot spots so I wouldn't be surprised to see some big hits down there to finish off the season.  Seem's like a theme in recent years where hurricanes track along the SE coastline.

 

Y202006.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...

 

Y202006.D1000_gl2.png

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This is turning out to be a HOT Summer. Average 90 degree days is 12X. We will surpass that by next week and there is plenty of Summer left.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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What do the climate models have to say for the final month of met Summer???  It may be fair to say that the hottest part of our Summer pattern may be during this next week or so for the northern and eastern Sub based off of the signals I'm seeing right now.  It may be reasonable to say that our Hot pattern that has remained in place during the opening half of July for nearly all of us on here may be shifting farther south and west in due time.  The EPO/WPO and high lat blocking are showing signs that the mean ridge will shift farther west resulting in a consistent NW Flow pattern.  I remain steadfast that the dry and hot conditions may feedback into those across KS/OK/TX.  

 

 

Here is what the CFSv2 is showing at this time...clear trend for a VERY wet/active pattern for the aforementioned members in this Sub.

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202008.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202008.gif

 

 

 

 

What about the JMA and Euro???    Well, the JMA is also seeing the ridge developing across the western part of the CONUS resulting near normal temps for the eastern Sub.  The Euro looks similar to the CFSv2 with a pocket of cooler temps poking into the Upper MW.  This may shift farther south next run IMO.

 

 

Temps..

 

Y202007.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

Look at that SST pattern off the JMA...I'm seeing a clear signal off all the models for a stout NE PAC warm BLOB and a La Nina in full force.

 

 

Y202007.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Are you in the camp of more Heat or would you rather slowly start to shift into Autumn???  I believe we still have plenty of warmth to come this month but in due time we will be seeing a lot of CF's starting to resemble an early Autumn pattern heading into mid/late August.  IF the CFSv2 is right, the only way you get such a WET pattern is to have frontal boundaries battling the heat/humidity up from the GOM.  I don't know about you, but I'm ready to see more Boomers this month into August followed by some chill in the air like we're seeing today.

 

 

 

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This Summer will definitely turn out to be hotter than last year, that is for sure. Summer 2019, number of times that Dtw hit 90 or better was 10X (btw, average is 12X) so, surpassed last years already. Currently 11X. Now, going for the record, which is 17X, the most 90 Degree days in the month of July. Looking very likely to be broken. W a heatwave coming by weeks end, it will be a 6 day stretch of 90s, so looks like a record will be set soon.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Also, I have noticed it getting darker sooner now. B4 ya know it, Winter Outlooks will be out. Once August sets in, then, it is basically a count down towards Meteorological Autumn.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Last nights Euro Weeklies have really flipped from the "Blow Torch" pattern heading into the month of August.  In fact, it's trying to establish a "cool pool" smack dab in the middle of the nation, centered near the MW ag belt where it had been illustrating intense heat to persist in recent weeks.  I'm starting to wonder if that monster NE PAC "Warm Blob" is having any effect towards the North American wx pattern.

 

The maps below show the 30-day temp/precip anomalies for the month of August and it paints a much better picture for our farmers.

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Despite spending only 1 full month of met Summer in Chicago this season, I, to, shared in the records that were being broken continuously out here in the "valley of the sun".  With that being said, Chicago will go down as having one of the hottest summers on record in over 150 years!  #2020SummerSizzle

 

 

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