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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


Madtown

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LOL!

 

The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING!

 

Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!

MAGA!!!
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LOL!

 

The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING!

 

Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!

Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?
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Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub???  Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system.  Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub.

 

00z Euro...

1.png

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00z GEFS...still quite a lot of spread among the members...of note, however, I'm seeing a similar characteristic which has happened in previous cycles whereby the storm rapidly intensifies and then occludes near the GL's region.  I'm seeing this being picked up by several GEFS members.

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_174.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_138.png

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00z EPS...a little better out west into IA and parts of E NE/KC region...the track of the stronger secondary vortex through the MW should produce more snow than what the operational models are showing now.  I've seen this happen in similar circumstances in the past and have learned that wherever this closed low tracks usually produces the heaviest precip where max lift is produced.  Nonetheless, rest assured, we aren't done yet with model volatility.  

 

Edit: Looking closer near the GL's region, there is definitely a Lehs signal being picked up.  Boy, there are some big time hits per the EPS members.

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06z GFS...starting to show the big potential in and around the GL's/MW region...lots of moving parts with this system but the idea of a phasing and rapidly intensifying storm system near the GL's/OHV is starting to look like a good possibility.

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs.  Models are really struggling with this.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub???  Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system.  Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub.

 

00z Euro...

 

 

Fool me once....

 

Was going to say..remember when the Ukie had a 972 mb "bomb" over OH with that system earlier in the month? The one that ended up just a series of weak waves instead of a bundled batch of energy. I'll have to remain highly skeptical until it's imminent. And in this winter of last-minute mega busts, that'll be a real-time situation IF it comes to fruition at all?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro is getting better for northern folks as the trailing energy is closing off and remaining farther north because the kicker energy has backed off again.  It's just a shame the lead system sweeps away all the deep moisture.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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"As of todays runs" looking like we could exceed the Halloween storm and some areas by quite a bit. Not getting hopes up because we know what the models showed us just 24htrs ago but most of the major models are showing a fairly robust storm and not a quick hitter either. That blocking is really going to help slow this storm down which is a plus.

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12z Euro...

 

Should at least keep the offices talking.. ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"As of todays runs" looking like we could exceed the Halloween storm and some areas by quite a bit. Not getting hopes up because we know what the models showed us just 24htrs ago but most of the major models are showing a fairly robust storm and not a quick hitter either. That blocking is really going to help slow this storm down which is a plus.

Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region.  Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap.

1.png

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Should at least keep the offices talking.. ;)

 

Overnight disco b4 they ingest the latest guidance..

 

-- Chances for rain/snow next week in complex evolution --

 

The pattern early to mid next week is what I would describe as a

complex evolution for sure. The initial shortwave to affect our

area is currently off the Southern California coast. It moves east

and induces surface cyclogenesis east of the Rockies on Sunday.

The low moves our direction and eventually weakens Monday night

into Tuesday as it moves into confluent upper flow. The ECMWF is

favored as it has pretty consistently shown the low to move up the

Ohio Valley. The GFS has been further north and is now trending

south towards the ECMWF track.

 

A second upper shortwave enters the picture on Monday from the

Northern Plains with this resulting in a deepening trough over the

plains and Great Lakes.

 

As northern stream energy begins to interact with this second

upper shortwave mid week a full latitude trough develops over the

eastern half of the country. A rapidly deepening low moves up the

Appalachians and into Quebec.

 

In terms of what to expect in terms of sensible weather we are

looking at precipitation likely holding off until into Monday.

Rain will trend towards rain and snow into Monday night with snow

being the dominant precipitation type into Tuesday and Wednesday.

We could be looking at some accumulating snow during the Tuesday

night and Wednesday time frame as the low deepens off to our east.

The snow does not look all that heavy, but several inches appear

possible with the current ECWMF across Southern Lower Michigan.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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