IowaWX82 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 LOL! The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING! Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 LOL! The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING! Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN! MAGA!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 LOL! The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING! Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run? 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?Lol! That was my exact thought as I read it. WTF is he winning?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub??? Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system. Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub. 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 00z GEFS...still quite a lot of spread among the members...of note, however, I'm seeing a similar characteristic which has happened in previous cycles whereby the storm rapidly intensifies and then occludes near the GL's region. I'm seeing this being picked up by several GEFS members. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 00z EPS...a little better out west into IA and parts of E NE/KC region...the track of the stronger secondary vortex through the MW should produce more snow than what the operational models are showing now. I've seen this happen in similar circumstances in the past and have learned that wherever this closed low tracks usually produces the heaviest precip where max lift is produced. Nonetheless, rest assured, we aren't done yet with model volatility. Edit: Looking closer near the GL's region, there is definitely a Lehs signal being picked up. Boy, there are some big time hits per the EPS members. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 6z GFS hits Milwaukee/Chicago pretty good 12+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 06z GFS...starting to show the big potential in and around the GL's/MW region...lots of moving parts with this system but the idea of a phasing and rapidly intensifying storm system near the GL's/OHV is starting to look like a good possibility. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 6z EC favors Chicago and Michigan 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Fool me once.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 I'd take 2-3 from this and be happy. Freshen up the scene a bit. Gonna lose most of the snowcover after this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 The 12z ICON has also shifted the system nw. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 More snow to plow please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z GFS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs. Models are really struggling with this. 6 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs. Models are really struggling with this. That is probably one of the best runs I have seen on the GEM for our area in a long long time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 The 12z UK shifted in the opposite direction. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Looking good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs. Models are really struggling with this. Looks like the ICON on steroids. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z GFS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z CMC mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub??? Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system. Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub. 00z Euro... Fool me once.... Was going to say..remember when the Ukie had a 972 mb "bomb" over OH with that system earlier in the month? The one that ended up just a series of weak waves instead of a bundled batch of energy. I'll have to remain highly skeptical until it's imminent. And in this winter of last-minute mega busts, that'll be a real-time situation IF it comes to fruition at all? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs. Models are really struggling with this. Send it... lol. I would gladly take that for a nice season closer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 The Euro is getting better for northern folks as the trailing energy is closing off and remaining farther north because the kicker energy has backed off again. It's just a shame the lead system sweeps away all the deep moisture. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 7" on the Euro. I wouldn't complain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Of course, the way this has been going, tonight's Euro could show nothing again. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Euro... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 "As of todays runs" looking like we could exceed the Halloween storm and some areas by quite a bit. Not getting hopes up because we know what the models showed us just 24htrs ago but most of the major models are showing a fairly robust storm and not a quick hitter either. That blocking is really going to help slow this storm down which is a plus. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Euro...Woof! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z EPS mean has some real nice hits. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z Euro... Should at least keep the offices talking.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 12z EPS mean has some real nice hits.Having the EPS showing Big Dogs this far out is quite intriguing. Now I am getting excited! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 "As of todays runs" looking like we could exceed the Halloween storm and some areas by quite a bit. Not getting hopes up because we know what the models showed us just 24htrs ago but most of the major models are showing a fairly robust storm and not a quick hitter either. That blocking is really going to help slow this storm down which is a plus.Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region. Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 There are still quite a few duds for Iowa in the Euro ensemble. This thing could go either way. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Should at least keep the offices talking.. Overnight disco b4 they ingest the latest guidance.. -- Chances for rain/snow next week in complex evolution -- The pattern early to mid next week is what I would describe as acomplex evolution for sure. The initial shortwave to affect ourarea is currently off the Southern California coast. It moves eastand induces surface cyclogenesis east of the Rockies on Sunday.The low moves our direction and eventually weakens Monday nightinto Tuesday as it moves into confluent upper flow. The ECMWF isfavored as it has pretty consistently shown the low to move up theOhio Valley. The GFS has been further north and is now trendingsouth towards the ECMWF track. A second upper shortwave enters the picture on Monday from theNorthern Plains with this resulting in a deepening trough over theplains and Great Lakes. As northern stream energy begins to interact with this secondupper shortwave mid week a full latitude trough develops over theeastern half of the country. A rapidly deepening low moves up theAppalachians and into Quebec. In terms of what to expect in terms of sensible weather we arelooking at precipitation likely holding off until into Monday.Rain will trend towards rain and snow into Monday night with snowbeing the dominant precipitation type into Tuesday and Wednesday.We could be looking at some accumulating snow during the Tuesdaynight and Wednesday time frame as the low deepens off to our east.The snow does not look all that heavy, but several inches appearpossible with the current ECWMF across Southern Lower Michigan. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 We've seen this so many times this winter (even from the formerly reliable Euro) where it shows significant snow within 4-5 days to go away the next day. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 We've seen this so many times this winter (even from the formerly reliable Euro) where it shows significant snow within 4-5 days to go away the next day. I would agree if it was only the Euro but all models except one are showing this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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