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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


Madtown

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Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region.  Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap.

 

Lengthy? I honestly doubt it. Calendar date + AO should recover to at least +4. EPO looks positive as well

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region.  Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap.

You have been saying this since October

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24-36 hrs of snowfall is consider a lengthy period of wintry wx in my book from one storm system. Not sure why you think otherwise.

He's either a borderline troll or a generally miserable person, check out his post history.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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^^^ #15 please. I wouldn't ask the snow gods for any other favors for at least three seasons!

Now, wouldn't that be something......but, too far away still. Dont get too excited. Its good that the models see a big storm next week though.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not overly optimistic for this system. Although the 60 degrees tomorrow I won't be upset.

Near 50F for mby on Sunday. It will feel awesome! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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anybody got the 18Z Euro? It's not loading on AccuWX.

 

Terry Swails posted this 18z Euro image to his blog.  I forget what the significance of the ensemble C (control?) member is.

 

Euro_ENS_Control.jpg

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Still not buying into those heavy amounts with the 18Z ensemble runs. Seems 18Z was the first ens run to show them. If 00Z continues it's getting interesting as DMX has pretty much written it off and only expects widespread light snows with the CAA midweek.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Teleconnections may not be negative- but they are forecasted to fall off which is not bad. One thing I have observed over the years is the NAO (want it going down or negative for storms) is a bigger player on the field later in the winter / early Spring.  Epo going down is a good sign also.4indices.pngnao.sprd2.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z ICON... big north shift.... instead of the trailing energy diving down to the south, it now turns more eastward like other models are showing now.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_33.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nam looks pretty far north also

 

Yeah, it is.  The snow band is just beginning to get enhanced by the trailing energy at the end of the run.  It's too bad the deep moisture has been pushed to the east coast at this point.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, the GFS is way north with the energy, a big north jump from the 12z and 18z runs.  This run should hit Minnesota.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Man Minnesota really does get blasted on the 00z GFS. Gonna take a few days for everyone to dig out if it comes true. If anything, this really does outline the high end, big dog potential on this thing if all the piece fall into place just right.

44694959-3944-40EC-839B-EF9EDCA43B31.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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It's really shows the variables involved when all four major (EURO 12Z- GFS, CMC and UKMET) all have basically much different solutions at 3-5 day range though the GFS and CMC are somewhat close with placement of precip just varies on type and amoumt. I have no clue what so ever what the Euro is about to show but I had to guess ; similar to it's 12Z run but further N and W and not based on mby but based on the warmth of the weekend and time of year. It's getting close to Dakota special season.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ukie no good for Iowa

 

It's better than 12z, but it still dives the trailing energy south and east around Iowa.  I'm sure this will continue to evolve this weekend.  Even if every model showed Cedar Rapids getting a foot of snow, I wouldn't get excited this far in advance.

 

00z UK

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I love the way the trailing upper energy grabs the lead energy and pulls the surface low back.  It's kinda neat.  The UK is not really doing that.

 

This scenario is about as good as it's going to get for Cedar Rapids.  I still wouldn't put any money on it.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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