Mi_Matthew Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Trying not to get excited, but at the same time I have to believe that this will be one of the last genuine (first and only?) opportunities for a phase for the lower lakes. I am not greedy and I hope for the best "spread the wealth" scenario. IMO, this has a lot going for it, slowing down seemingly every run and some consistency from (mostly) the foreign models. Yes, there is waffling between models and runs but, averaging those out and factoring the seasonal SE-bias, I am ready to be buried and hope as many as possible will be buried with me! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Well other then the ICON and GFS eastern Nebraska seems like the ultimate screw zone with snow pivoting in all directions around us lol. Payback for a great winter last season lol. 3 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 There is absolutely no agreement in the GFS ensembles. It's all over the place. Definitely won't know for a couple more days what this wacky system will do. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Euro Kucherahttp://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-132-C-kucheratot.png 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Another look-http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued_rapid/00Z/ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-132-C-kucheratot_2020022200_whitecounty.png 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 06NAM starting too amp up. Still snowing across nearly all of IA at hr 84. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 00z Euro...another look and one that would make many folks in IA/IL/WI/MI very happy...this system has a lot going for it to become a big dog....ample moisture, slow pivot, , blocking, phasing and enough cold air to tap. The energy from the lead wave will be coming onshore today in So Cal and lambaste parts of the desert SW. Parts of the "Valley of the Sun" in AZ are under Flood Watch's today. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Gfs much farther west and stronger with the low than 0z Nails WI good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Holy smokes are the 00z EPS juiced! The trends are getting juicier and a showing more of a widespread snow shield as we get closer in time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday...By late Sunday/early Monday a southern stream upper level lowcurrently moving into central/southern California will begin toaffect the area. The forecast trend has been to slow the system downand push precipitation chances south, as can be discerned via thelast few GEFS runs as well as other synoptic guidance. Even so,there remains some variability in both onset time and QPF amountwithin the ensemble members, with the operational GFS runpersistently one of the slowest to onset and driest. Given theoverall slower/drier/southerly trend, have trimmed NBM POPs a bitMonday but not to the extent the operational GFS run would suggest.Soundings and surface temps suggest precipitation type Monday toprimarily be snow, but could see some wintry mix as the columnsaturates. Regardless, light snowfall accumulations around an inchor less expected across the southern tier or two of counties by thetime the system slides out early Tuesday. Overall expect little tono impacts to travel.Quickly on the heels of the southern stream system exiting will be anorthern stream 500mb upper low on track to begin its influenceTuesday, continuing at least low end precipitation chances throughWednesday. Most notably with this system will be the return ofcolder air as it digs through the mid/upper Plains, droppinghighs into the 20s/30s and lows into the single digits/teens toround out the week. Overall the system lacks persistent moistureand sharp forcing, yielding another round of light nuisancesnowfall. Do not anticipate overall impacts to be much more thanminor once again. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday... I was going to post about that, too. It's strange the DMX forecaster does not even acknowledge the possibility of any decent snow. You'd think they would at least say, "Some models are pushing a bigger event, but we are not buying this scenario." 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Iowa folks are going to like the NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Iowa folks are going to like the NAM It's farther north, though. It gets the surface low way up to around Clinton, IA. The Northern 2/3 of Iowa gets the brunt this run, and even southern MN gets into it. One thing I see is the NAM is a fast outlier with regard to the start of the snow. Most models have snow expanding in Iowa Tuesday morning. The NAM has it Monday afternoon. That will get delayed in future runs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 NAM does look good for IOWA, however, a lot of that falls during the day Tuesday with temps around 29-32, likely won’t max out accumulations during the day unless it is colder or snows really hard. KC had the same thing last week, a great snow storm, but a lot melted as it fell and none of it ever accumulated on the pavement. (That was our only storm of the month, the next one is all rain) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 picked up 5in last Monday at 32/33 degrees 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The ICON is still on board 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 GFS is similar to 6z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The GFS continues to strengthen compared to previous runs, but it is still going way north. Much of Iowa gets nothing. This would be a Wisconsin biggie, with some in southern MN as well. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 HR 72 the L is in central Indiana and by HR 90 it’s much stronger over western LM You don’t see the low get tugged back NW very often Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 yikes....riding the southern edge on that one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Wish the GFS would get its act together a bit sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 GEM is solid for many in here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Canadian yes please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The Canadian is inching north a tad, but is pretty consistent now. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 UK looks like last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 So let me get this straight the GFS is on its own? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 UK looks like last night. It's worse than last night. The UK is shooting the first wave eastward too quickly, so there is little interaction between the waves. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Rats, the Euro is coming north, lifts the heavy snow north of Cedar Rapids. It still has a band of heavy snow lifting north through CR/IC, but the best totals should be north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Euro is farther north than 0z but not crazy north like gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Still really good hit for Iowa city and Cedar Rapids 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Ends up taking the surface low further west Ends up north of Chicago as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 I guess it's better than I thought. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The Euro (and some other models as well) are showing the initial pocket of intense snow developing over southeast Iowa and lifting north through eastern Iowa during the day. The Euro drops 3-5 just from that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Probably 14-18" over much of E IA from the euro factoring ratios for the 2nd half of the storm. Another thing of note is the very weak shear profiles over much of the snow band, assuming a decent amount of lift(looking at the euro, there should be) could get decent flake size to really help achieve higher ratios. Not much to dislike on the past several euro runs. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The shift north needs to stop ASAP though... 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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