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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


Madtown

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Trying not to get excited, but at the same time I have to believe that this will be one of the last genuine (first and only?) opportunities for a phase for the lower lakes. I am not greedy and I hope for the best "spread the wealth" scenario. IMO, this has a lot going for it, slowing down seemingly every run and some consistency from (mostly) the foreign models. Yes, there is waffling between models and runs but, averaging those out and factoring the seasonal SE-bias, I am ready to be buried and hope as many as possible will be buried with me!

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Well other then the ICON and GFS eastern Nebraska seems like the ultimate screw zone with snow pivoting in all directions around us lol. Payback for a great winter last season lol.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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There is absolutely no agreement in the GFS ensembles. It's all over the place. Definitely won't know for a couple more days what this wacky system will do.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Another look-http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued_rapid/00Z/ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-132-C-kucheratot_2020022200_whitecounty.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Euro...another look and one that would make many folks in IA/IL/WI/MI very happy...this system has a lot going for it to become a big dog....ample moisture, slow pivot, , blocking, phasing and enough cold air to tap.  The energy from the lead wave will be coming onshore today in So Cal and lambaste parts of the desert SW.  Parts of the "Valley of the Sun" in AZ are under Flood Watch's today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.png

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DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday...

By late Sunday/early Monday a southern stream upper level low
currently moving into central/southern California will begin to
affect the area. The forecast trend has been to slow the system down
and push precipitation chances south, as can be discerned via the
last few GEFS runs as well as other synoptic guidance. Even so,
there remains some variability in both onset time and QPF amount
within the ensemble members, with the operational GFS run
persistently one of the slowest to onset and driest. Given the
overall slower/drier/southerly trend, have trimmed NBM POPs a bit
Monday but not to the extent the operational GFS run would suggest.
Soundings and surface temps suggest precipitation type Monday to
primarily be snow, but could see some wintry mix as the column
saturates. Regardless, light snowfall accumulations around an inch
or less expected across the southern tier or two of counties by the
time the system slides out early Tuesday. Overall expect little to
no impacts to travel.

Quickly on the heels of the southern stream system exiting will be a
northern stream 500mb upper low on track to begin its influence
Tuesday, continuing at least low end precipitation chances through
Wednesday. Most notably with this system will be the return of
colder air as it digs through the mid/upper Plains, dropping
highs into the 20s/30s and lows into the single digits/teens to
round out the week. Overall the system lacks persistent moisture
and sharp forcing, yielding another round of light nuisance
snowfall. Do not anticipate overall impacts to be much more than
minor once again.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday...

 

I was going to post about that, too.  It's strange the DMX forecaster does not even acknowledge the possibility of any decent snow.  You'd think they would at least say, "Some models are pushing a bigger event, but we are not buying this scenario."

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Iowa folks are going to like the NAM

 

It's farther north, though.  It gets the surface low way up to around Clinton, IA.  The Northern 2/3 of Iowa gets the brunt this run, and even southern MN gets into it.

 

One thing I see is the NAM is a fast outlier with regard to the start of the snow.  Most models have snow expanding in Iowa Tuesday morning.  The NAM has it Monday afternoon.  That will get delayed in future runs.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NAM does look good for IOWA, however, a lot of that falls during the day Tuesday with temps around 29-32, likely won’t max out accumulations during the day unless it is colder or snows really hard.

 

KC had the same thing last week, a great snow storm, but a lot melted as it fell and none of it ever accumulated on the pavement. (That was our only storm of the month, the next one is all rain)

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The GFS continues to strengthen compared to previous runs, but it is still going way north.  Much of Iowa gets nothing.  This would be a Wisconsin biggie, with some in southern MN as well.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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UK looks like last night.

 

It's worse than last night.  The UK is shooting the first wave eastward too quickly, so there is little interaction between the waves.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rats, the Euro is coming north, lifts the heavy snow north of Cedar Rapids.  It still has a band of heavy snow lifting north through CR/IC, but the best totals should be north.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro (and some other models as well) are showing the initial pocket of intense snow developing over southeast Iowa and lifting north through eastern Iowa during the day.  The Euro drops 3-5 just from that.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Probably 14-18" over much of E IA from the euro factoring ratios for the 2nd half of the storm. Another thing of note is the very weak shear profiles over much of the snow band, assuming a decent amount of lift(looking at the euro, there should be) could get decent flake size to really help achieve higher ratios. Not much to dislike on the past several euro runs.

 

ecmwf_full_2020022212_072_42.0--91.75.pn

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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