GDR Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 This thing is going to be a none factor by the time it gets here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Every model run has seen it's fair share of shifts so I would expect it to continue until start time. This time tomorrow we should know which model will end up being the winner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 woof? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 ICON shifted southeast as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratosjeff Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Oh boy. This forum is going to be riddled with meltdowns all day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 ICON shifted southeast as well. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z/0z will probably be back NW and then all will be well with the world again. The models have all been terrible as we all know and we still have at least 24hrs to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 woof? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 If you watch the GFS 500 mb trend over the last ~8 runs, the big problem is the second wave. It has steadily become weaker and slower. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Good luck everyone south and east! Hope you score! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 RGEM southeast and weaker, like everything else. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z GFS 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaWX82 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Time to think spring, boyz... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 yeah, i think it's time to throw in the towel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 There are some models trying to put down 3-6" or a little more right through the heart of Central Nebraska. If this occurs, the wind is also supposed to be blowing up to 40 MPH. This could lead to blowing and drifting and poor travel conditions. It is a very narrow potential band so NWS and other forecasters are still waiting. Not getting excited, but it would be nice to see some snow with windy conditions. With this winter, nothing is ever for certain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 D**n, I'm in play for a WWA event. Never thought I would be in a million years. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Bullseye for 3 days. Now it's going south and weaker. This is why I didn't care about this storm. All the Models suck. Trust nothing over 1 day out. Trust no forecasters. They are all terrible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z GFS There will be a storm. Good luck. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z Canadian..."Jaster Jackpot" 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Time to think spring, boyz... You most be in Baltimore. https://youtu.be/3cQNkIrg-Tk Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Skilling's FB update moments ago A little geek stuff now---so fair warning, tune this out if this sort of material is not your "cup of tea". 45 model forecasts have been analyzed for this prediction and model generated snowfalls among them centered on the city ranging from as little as 3.4" to as much as 16.6". Either of these two totals sits at the most extreme ends of extrem the forecast spectrum. These have a lower likelihood of actually occurrin--but should either of them actually occur, totals like these are likely to impact a limited portion of the Chicago area.If one averages all 45 snow forecasts centered on Chicago, the total which emerges is roughly 9". Taking this figure and the accumulation estimates which sit in the middle of the pack as well as other variables we weather types look over, a predicted snowfall range of 6 to 12" range makes the most sense at this time.I'm posting a set of varied model snowfall forecasts for you to check out yourself. It is always fascinating to watch how complex situations like the one coming together is handled by these incredibly sophisticated models. What's been interesting--and I noted it in my posts Sunday--is how the the axis of heaviest snowfall as predicted by has been sinking southward. It started yesterday in southern Wisconsin-----it's now down across the Chicago area. Interestingly, the vaunted European Center model and its ensembles place the axis of heaviest snowfall just south of Chicago--still producing a respectable 7-8" snowfall city with as 4.5" near the Cook County/Lake county, IL line and totals as high as 11" on the Indiana line and into Lake CiLke County, IN. It's also interesting that our 4km RPM model is producing a snowfall in the 6" range through the heart of the city building to 10" toward the Illinois/Indiana line at Lake County, N. The suggesting of both these models as well as the UK Met center's models is that accumulation tallies will ease heading north into northern counties an toward the Wisconsin line and just north where 3-4" would be most common.I'll keep your posted on updates as this winter storm and new data important to it and its impact come in.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Even the UK has halted its gradual improvement and has gone back south a bit and weaker. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z GEFS...weakened considerably and shifted SE...Clinton may be in the game and what is clearly looking better for our IN/OH/MI members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 d**n, I'm in play for a WWA event. Never thought I would be in a million years. The southeast and weak trend has definitely been working in your favor this year 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z GFS mean. KC could see a decent snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Skilling's FB update moments ago A little geek stuff now---so fair warning, tune this out if this sort of material is not your "cup of tea". 45 model forecasts have been analyzed for this prediction and model generated snowfalls among them centered on the city ranging from as little as 3.4" to as much as 16.6". Either of these two totals sits at the most extreme ends of extrem the forecast spectrum. These have a lower likelihood of actually occurrin--but should either of them actually occur, totals like these are likely to impact a limited portion of the Chicago area.If one averages all 45 snow forecasts centered on Chicago, the total which emerges is roughly 9". Taking this figure and the accumulation estimates which sit in the middle of the pack as well as other variables we weather types look over, a predicted snowfall range of 6 to 12" range makes the most sense at this time.I'm posting a set of varied model snowfall forecasts for you to check out yourself. It is always fascinating to watch how complex situations like the one coming together is handled by these incredibly sophisticated models. What's been interesting--and I noted it in my posts Sunday--is how the the axis of heaviest snowfall as predicted by has been sinking southward. It started yesterday in southern Wisconsin-----it's now down across the Chicago area. Interestingly, the vaunted European Center model and its ensembles place the axis of heaviest snowfall just south of Chicago--still producing a respectable 7-8" snowfall city with as 4.5" near the Cook County/Lake county, IL line and totals as high as 11" on the Indiana line and into Lake CiLke County, IN. It's also interesting that our 4km RPM model is producing a snowfall in the 6" range through the heart of the city building to 10" toward the Illinois/Indiana line at Lake County, N. The suggesting of both these models as well as the UK Met center's models is that accumulation tallies will ease heading north into northern counties an toward the Wisconsin line and just north where 3-4" would be most common.I'll keep your posted on updates as this winter storm and new data important to it and its impact come in.. A storm is just brewing man. Don't over think it.. https://youtu.be/wPndmL6HfIs Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z GFS mean. KC could see a decent snowIf the trends continue, you may see some headlines in Central Nebraska. With 40 MPH winds, could we some "blizzard conditions"? One can dream. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Good luck guys. You are in the NW guad.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 See you in March! Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12Z Euro. Has 6-7" band through my county. Well, what could go wrong? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z Euro - South, but still pretty solid for southeastern Michigan. Some of us had the rug pulled out from under us, but it has benefited others. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z Euro...good luck to those in the path...prob gonna be a swing and a miss for my area in terms of the heaviest snows.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Euro 48 hours ago vs. now 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Euro 48 hours ago vs. now Whoa, sorry about that. Happened here many times over the years as well. I know how frustrated many on here must be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Euro 48 hours ago vs. now UKIE won this battle in terms of placement of the snow shield but amounts were lower than what they will prob end up being. Boy, the forecasters must be so frustrated with the modeling this season. If one would have read the LOT discussion this morning, you'd be banking on a major snowstorm for N IL. Crazy how many shifts we have seen inside 24-48 hours. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 The southeast and weak trend has definitely been working in your favor this year If it wasn't for last minute Southeast shifts, I'd be in play for record low snowfall. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Is Niko vacationing in the Greek Isles or what? Thought he’d be in here posting about these trends. He’s gonna reel this one in. Good luck to all in play. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Still a little time for this to move back NW but not counting on it. Whatever was ingested into the models today was a blow to many of us and can only hope it was in-correct. Will be looking at the 18z and 0z runs for any type of improvement...fingers crossed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 What are we thinking for Chicagoland fellas - yet another grass whitener/ground wetter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Favorable wave timing and phasing has not been good this winter. Everything ends up with more positive tilt, less phasing, etc. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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