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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


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Still think 3-6 is a good bet. Not sure if your trolling though...….

Not trolling, just wondering if this will be another dose of what we’ve gotten all “winter”. Have only had to use the shovel twice because rarely has anything stuck to pavement and not melted in 24 hours. Seeing as though ground temps are above freezing (as they have been mostly all season) and marginal temps, I could easily see this being another event in which grass whitens up and pavement is just wet. Do you agree or disagree?

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DVN cancels winter storm watch and adds Winter Weather Advisory for a handful of counties.  Big time model fail here.  Thankfully the models changed in time that we didn't get to the point of winter storm warnings and then get nothing.  That happened a couple years ago.  My kids school cancelled prematurely due to the forecast.  Then a last minute swing put the snow just out of our area.  We got a half inch of snow at 6pm and then nothing the rest of the storm and school was cancelled.  Lots of happy parents with that call....

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NWS as now canceled the WSW for my area.  Yesterday they were calling for up to a foot of snow, now perhaps a dusting to an inch.  What is the deal with these yo-yo weather forecasts?  It just seems to me that weather forecasting is getting worse, not better.  I watched JB's Saturday Summary on the Weather Bell site, and although he's had his share of issues, I think he did make a valid point.  Basing forecasts off of computer modeling is in reality making a forecast from a forecast.  I feel the entire meteorological community is relying on computer modeling way too much.  The actual art of weather forecasting, of pouring over weather maps, soundings, and relying on experience and gut instinct, is being lost to computer technology. I believe because of it forecasts are just going to get worse. Sorry for the rant but I needed to get that off my chest!

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DVN with a nice writeup on this complicated storm

 

 

The Winter Storm is not forecast to phase the two upper lows as
far west as earlier forecast. Thus, a far weaker moisture
transport northward is expected, shown by a more eastward
development of the Fujiwara process than earlier has been shown to
take place over top of the DVN CWA. This very tricky process,
which can and does produce very heavy persistent deformation zone
snows, resulted in the possibility of heavy snow over our area.
Unlike a storm system missing the area, or one that didn`t have
moisture, this is a complicated process that does not seem to be
likely given the latest data set, and we looked very hard at this
today. The 150kt jet streak in MO seems to be allowing the
southern system to dominate the flow, rather than stall out and
phase with the incoming upper wave from Wyoming. The dominance of
the first wave will not allow this to take place as was forecast.
Without an upper low stalling over our area, and without moisture
transport back over the region, we are left wanting when it comes
to widespread forcing for snow.

The rain to the south will potentially mixing with snow tonight,
but with very marginal surface temperatures and a warm ground, we
do not expect any real accumulation. Tuesday will see a similar
situation, but at times, we may approach rates in the south where
snow can accumulate. At most during the day, 1 to 3 inches may
occur south of Interstate 80. In all likelihood, less than 1 will
happen.

Looking at Tuesday night into Wednesday, we have issued an
advisory for southern and eastern areas, thinking that a change to
snow is expected, with a period of light to moderate snow of 1 to
3 inches possible. This may result in totals of 2 to 5 and
advisory has been issued. For locations northwest of a line from
Fairfield to the Quad Cities to Dubuque, will see little if any
snow, and this is hard to message as several low end periods add
up to 1-2 inches, but that may not actually accumulate given the
marginal surface conditions through Tuesday evening.

This is a major change from earlier forecasts, but one that is
always possible, in all dynamic low merger based winter storms. In
the end, these are among the most challenging events possible, as
both a zero snow and heavy snow are possible hinging on the fine
upper level details of the phasing/merger/Fujiwara process.

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DVN with a nice writeup on this complicated storm

 

Yes, nice discussion.  Most people don't realize how complex the atmosphere is and how difficult it is for both models and humans to forecast a potential wave-phase storm like this one.  Subtle details, which are always evolving, can make or break a snowstorm for any particular location.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS as now canceled the WSW for my area.  Yesterday they were calling for up to a foot of snow, now perhaps a dusting to an inch.  What is the deal with these yo-yo weather forecasts?  It just seems to me that weather forecasting is getting worse, not better.  I watched JB's Saturday Summary on the Weather Bell site, and although he's had his share of issues, I think he did make a valid point.  Basing forecasts off of computer modeling is in reality making a forecast from a forecast.  I feel the entire meteorological community is relying on computer modeling way too much.  The actual art of weather forecasting, of pouring over weather maps, soundings, and relying on experience and gut instinct, is being lost to computer technology. I believe because of it forecasts are just going to get worse. Sorry for the rant but I needed to get that off my chest!

 

110 % correct. Well said/written.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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By the way, congrats to you peeps in N IL and S MI. At least I hope you folks are able to cash in from this storm!

Thanks! I am liking where I sit. I think a slight NW adjustment comes in tonight, RGEM looks pretty amped!

 

And as for your rant above, I agree 100%. It seems to me to have gotten to the point where even the forecasters ignore seasonal trends/model biases. I really do feel for you all in Wisconsin (I was a short term resident of Madison, love that town!).

 

Edit: Also I think that's why DTX plays every storm so conservative! I am honestly surprised we got a watch over 24 hours out!

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CLE couldn't possibly care less. The contrast between them and neighboring DTX is actually weird considering they usually coordinate pretty well. The difference in the lengths of their AFDs shows it.

 

CLE

 

 

Low pressure will track to the south of the lake on Wednesday. The
trend over the last couple days has been further southeast with the
ECMWF the outlier at the moment. For now we will go with a model
consensus that keeps the low track across southeastern OH. This will
keep the region with rain into Wednesday afternoon. The colder air
arrives Wednesday evening. So expect a transition from rain to snow
Wednesday evening with some light accumulations for everyone. The
lake effect portion of the storm gets started by Thursday morning.
Still plenty of uncertainty on amounts but advisory level snow in
the primary snow belt looks like a good place to start. We will get
more specific on amounts over the next couple days.

I love how obvious it is too that they didn't wait for Euro before writing it.

 

 

DTX

 

 

The upper wave now diving across the central Rockies remains the
main focus of the forecast. Additional PV advection into this trough
will result in the development of a closed mid level wave over
Kansas by Tuesday. This upper wave is forecast to rotate into IL/IN
Wednesday before lifting across Se Mi Wed night. It will result in a
subsequent strengthening of the sfc low meandering across the Ohio
Valley and will drive it northeastward across the ern lakes Wed
night. There has been fairly good consistency among the
ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian in developing a region of mid level deformation
forcing along/northwest of the 850mb low, tracking essentially
across Se Mi on Wednesday. Decent upper level divergence and low
static stability aloft will result in a good mid level frontal
response. As the mid level wave lifts to the north of the area Wed
night, it will undergo phasing with a northern stream wave diving
into the wrn Great Lakes from Ontario. This will result in rapid
deepening of the surface low over ern Ontario or srn Quebec Wed night.
This will advect much colder air into the region by Thursday under
gusty west-northwest winds.

Given the expected ascent within the mid level trowel overhead on
Wednesday, subtle cooling of the column and adequate moisture (mid
level specific humidities of 2 to 3 g/kg), accumulating snow will
affect Southeast Michigan. There is likely to be some meso scale
enhancements within the mid level deformation, which may support
some periods of heavy snow. Based on the array of model QPF and
considering liquid to snow rates of 8-10:1, potential accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches will be forecast, supporting the issuance of a
winter storm watch. The higher amounts or potential to exceed 8
inches will be dependent upon the organization of the mid level
deformation band and how persistent that feature remains focused
over one area.

One of the biggest uncertainties with this event is the start time
as there has been considerable variation on the timing and location
of a lead short wave impulse forecast to lift into Se Mi Tues night
and to what extent (if any) it activates mid level frontal forcing
overhead. If this is more robust than expected, accumulations may be
locally higher. There is certainly the potential for the better
forcing to hold off until later Wed morning with the main upper
wave. Given the onset uncertainty, the watch will begin shortly
after midnight Tues night with the start time adjusted with later
forecast updates if needed. It will run through late Wed night; the
time at which the main mid level forcing exits to the northeast.
Another point of interest is the trends noted in the ECMWF, which
have been a little flatter with the upper wave and weaker/farther
east with the lower tropospheric low. This has caused a subtle
southeastward trend in the axis of stronger large scale ascent. If
this trend holds, the axis of higher snow totals (which currently
extend from the far northern Detroit suburbs/Flint up to the thumb)
may need to be adjusted farther south into Detroit and Port Huron.
This in turn would result in much lower totals across the Tri Cities.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NOAA still has 6” in my forecast. Not one model now gives me an inch. Feel bad for people who read that but don’t know the change from earlier today.

Makes no sense here either. Yesterday, they all went all in on the GFS and issued WSW’s way out in Iowa and way north into WI. Fine - at least they said why regardless of it being a poor decision. Now, they decide to maintain WSW for almost all of LOT despite there being hardly model guidance to support it. So, I guess we’re back to just throwing darts.

 

Also, what’s the ETA until some Chicago peeps start posting about how LES/LEhS will bring the goods...

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I haven't seen this in Kansas for awhile...DDC has issued a snow squall warning for parts of their CWA...here is some of the text...

* Until 700 PM CST.* At 601 PM CST, dangerous snow squalls extended from near Dightonto near Garden City to near Ulysses to Liberal, expandingsoutheast at 30 mph.HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Windgusts as high as 50 mph.SOURCE...Radar indicated.IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.Be aware of very rapidly changing visibility in heavy snowshowers.
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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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I haven't seen this in Kansas for awhile...DDC has issued a snow squall warning for parts of their CWA...here is some of the text...


* Until 700 PM CST.

* At 601 PM CST, dangerous snow squalls extended from near Dighton
to near Garden City to near Ulysses to Liberal, expanding
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind
gusts as high as 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

Be aware of very rapidly changing visibility in heavy snow
showers.

Wow, is that all snow in west KS with all that lightning?!?

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Been coaching 7th grade basketball this afternoon and evening so have been out of the loop. NWS Hastings has a snow band setting up over my area of Central Nebraska and not moving much. They mention a general 2-4” but possibly a much heavier band that could drop warning criteria snows of 6-8” with winds gusting to 40 mph. All I heard after our games was “what are the chances for a snow day tomorrow”. This would be quite a storm it it materializes. Not assuming anything, but hoping for the best.

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Looking at latest models. Guessing a couple inches. But nws still shows us in 6" area. Seeing something im not? My local forecast says significant accumulation on Wednesday during the day. Wich makes no sense either. So im thinking maybe a couple inches. I always hope for more, but im also realistic.

 

A day or so ago i was in the 12"-15" area. Lol

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Looking at latest models. Guessing a couple inches. But nws still shows us in 6" area. Seeing something im not? My local forecast says significant accumulation on Wednesday during the day. Wich makes no sense either. So im thinking maybe a couple inches. I always hope for more, but im also realistic.

 

A day or so ago i was in the 12"-15" area. Lol

NWS usually updates their Grids around 3:00pm and 3:00am local time once new data can be analyzed every 12 hours.

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