FV-Mike Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 What are we thinking for Chicagoland fellas - yet another grass whitener/ground wetter?Still think 3-6 is a good bet. Not sure if your trolling though...…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Still think 3-6 is a good bet. Not sure if your trolling though...….Not trolling, just wondering if this will be another dose of what we’ve gotten all “winter”. Have only had to use the shovel twice because rarely has anything stuck to pavement and not melted in 24 hours. Seeing as though ground temps are above freezing (as they have been mostly all season) and marginal temps, I could easily see this being another event in which grass whitens up and pavement is just wet. Do you agree or disagree? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 12z EPS has a 1-4 incher. We have had a lot of these this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 15z SREF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 what an epic collapse! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 what an epic collapse! Maybe we'd have better results if we disguised our storm threads better...maybe like... 2/24-2/26 Bluegrass Festival (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!) 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Chicago folks don't even bother looking at the 18z Nam unless you like a couple flurries flying around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Wow I feel for the Chicago peeps! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 DVN cancels winter storm watch and adds Winter Weather Advisory for a handful of counties. Big time model fail here. Thankfully the models changed in time that we didn't get to the point of winter storm warnings and then get nothing. That happened a couple years ago. My kids school cancelled prematurely due to the forecast. Then a last minute swing put the snow just out of our area. We got a half inch of snow at 6pm and then nothing the rest of the storm and school was cancelled. Lots of happy parents with that call.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z NAM 12k 3k 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 NWS as now canceled the WSW for my area. Yesterday they were calling for up to a foot of snow, now perhaps a dusting to an inch. What is the deal with these yo-yo weather forecasts? It just seems to me that weather forecasting is getting worse, not better. I watched JB's Saturday Summary on the Weather Bell site, and although he's had his share of issues, I think he did make a valid point. Basing forecasts off of computer modeling is in reality making a forecast from a forecast. I feel the entire meteorological community is relying on computer modeling way too much. The actual art of weather forecasting, of pouring over weather maps, soundings, and relying on experience and gut instinct, is being lost to computer technology. I believe because of it forecasts are just going to get worse. Sorry for the rant but I needed to get that off my chest! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 By the way, congrats to you peeps in N IL and S MI. At least I hope you folks are able to cash in from this storm! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 LMAO Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Sunny and 70 in Baltimore... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 DVN with a nice writeup on this complicated storm The Winter Storm is not forecast to phase the two upper lows asfar west as earlier forecast. Thus, a far weaker moisturetransport northward is expected, shown by a more eastwarddevelopment of the Fujiwara process than earlier has been shown totake place over top of the DVN CWA. This very tricky process,which can and does produce very heavy persistent deformation zonesnows, resulted in the possibility of heavy snow over our area.Unlike a storm system missing the area, or one that didn`t havemoisture, this is a complicated process that does not seem to belikely given the latest data set, and we looked very hard at thistoday. The 150kt jet streak in MO seems to be allowing thesouthern system to dominate the flow, rather than stall out andphase with the incoming upper wave from Wyoming. The dominance ofthe first wave will not allow this to take place as was forecast.Without an upper low stalling over our area, and without moisturetransport back over the region, we are left wanting when it comesto widespread forcing for snow.The rain to the south will potentially mixing with snow tonight,but with very marginal surface temperatures and a warm ground, wedo not expect any real accumulation. Tuesday will see a similarsituation, but at times, we may approach rates in the south wheresnow can accumulate. At most during the day, 1 to 3 inches mayoccur south of Interstate 80. In all likelihood, less than 1 willhappen.Looking at Tuesday night into Wednesday, we have issued anadvisory for southern and eastern areas, thinking that a change tosnow is expected, with a period of light to moderate snow of 1 to3 inches possible. This may result in totals of 2 to 5 andadvisory has been issued. For locations northwest of a line fromFairfield to the Quad Cities to Dubuque, will see little if anysnow, and this is hard to message as several low end periods addup to 1-2 inches, but that may not actually accumulate given themarginal surface conditions through Tuesday evening.This is a major change from earlier forecasts, but one that isalways possible, in all dynamic low merger based winter storms. Inthe end, these are among the most challenging events possible, asboth a zero snow and heavy snow are possible hinging on the fineupper level details of the phasing/merger/Fujiwara process. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 DVN with a nice writeup on this complicated storm Yes, nice discussion. Most people don't realize how complex the atmosphere is and how difficult it is for both models and humans to forecast a potential wave-phase storm like this one. Subtle details, which are always evolving, can make or break a snowstorm for any particular location. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Waiting to get excited about this one. Didn't work out so well last time. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 NWS as now canceled the WSW for my area. Yesterday they were calling for up to a foot of snow, now perhaps a dusting to an inch. What is the deal with these yo-yo weather forecasts? It just seems to me that weather forecasting is getting worse, not better. I watched JB's Saturday Summary on the Weather Bell site, and although he's had his share of issues, I think he did make a valid point. Basing forecasts off of computer modeling is in reality making a forecast from a forecast. I feel the entire meteorological community is relying on computer modeling way too much. The actual art of weather forecasting, of pouring over weather maps, soundings, and relying on experience and gut instinct, is being lost to computer technology. I believe because of it forecasts are just going to get worse. Sorry for the rant but I needed to get that off my chest! 110 % correct. Well said/written. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 https://youtu.be/ED5s1-Fe9FA Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 By the way, congrats to you peeps in N IL and S MI. At least I hope you folks are able to cash in from this storm!Thanks! I am liking where I sit. I think a slight NW adjustment comes in tonight, RGEM looks pretty amped! And as for your rant above, I agree 100%. It seems to me to have gotten to the point where even the forecasters ignore seasonal trends/model biases. I really do feel for you all in Wisconsin (I was a short term resident of Madison, love that town!). Edit: Also I think that's why DTX plays every storm so conservative! I am honestly surprised we got a watch over 24 hours out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 CLE couldn't possibly care less. The contrast between them and neighboring DTX is actually weird considering they usually coordinate pretty well. The difference in the lengths of their AFDs shows it. CLE Low pressure will track to the south of the lake on Wednesday. Thetrend over the last couple days has been further southeast with theECMWF the outlier at the moment. For now we will go with a modelconsensus that keeps the low track across southeastern OH. This willkeep the region with rain into Wednesday afternoon. The colder airarrives Wednesday evening. So expect a transition from rain to snowWednesday evening with some light accumulations for everyone. Thelake effect portion of the storm gets started by Thursday morning.Still plenty of uncertainty on amounts but advisory level snow inthe primary snow belt looks like a good place to start. We will getmore specific on amounts over the next couple days.I love how obvious it is too that they didn't wait for Euro before writing it. DTX The upper wave now diving across the central Rockies remains themain focus of the forecast. Additional PV advection into this troughwill result in the development of a closed mid level wave overKansas by Tuesday. This upper wave is forecast to rotate into IL/INWednesday before lifting across Se Mi Wed night. It will result in asubsequent strengthening of the sfc low meandering across the OhioValley and will drive it northeastward across the ern lakes Wednight. There has been fairly good consistency among theECMWF/UKMET/Canadian in developing a region of mid level deformationforcing along/northwest of the 850mb low, tracking essentiallyacross Se Mi on Wednesday. Decent upper level divergence and lowstatic stability aloft will result in a good mid level frontalresponse. As the mid level wave lifts to the north of the area Wednight, it will undergo phasing with a northern stream wave divinginto the wrn Great Lakes from Ontario. This will result in rapiddeepening of the surface low over ern Ontario or srn Quebec Wed night.This will advect much colder air into the region by Thursday undergusty west-northwest winds.Given the expected ascent within the mid level trowel overhead onWednesday, subtle cooling of the column and adequate moisture (midlevel specific humidities of 2 to 3 g/kg), accumulating snow willaffect Southeast Michigan. There is likely to be some meso scaleenhancements within the mid level deformation, which may supportsome periods of heavy snow. Based on the array of model QPF andconsidering liquid to snow rates of 8-10:1, potential accumulationsof 4 to 8 inches will be forecast, supporting the issuance of awinter storm watch. The higher amounts or potential to exceed 8inches will be dependent upon the organization of the mid leveldeformation band and how persistent that feature remains focusedover one area.One of the biggest uncertainties with this event is the start timeas there has been considerable variation on the timing and locationof a lead short wave impulse forecast to lift into Se Mi Tues nightand to what extent (if any) it activates mid level frontal forcingoverhead. If this is more robust than expected, accumulations may belocally higher. There is certainly the potential for the betterforcing to hold off until later Wed morning with the main upperwave. Given the onset uncertainty, the watch will begin shortlyafter midnight Tues night with the start time adjusted with laterforecast updates if needed. It will run through late Wed night; thetime at which the main mid level forcing exits to the northeast.Another point of interest is the trends noted in the ECMWF, whichhave been a little flatter with the upper wave and weaker/farthereast with the lower tropospheric low. This has caused a subtlesoutheastward trend in the axis of stronger large scale ascent. Ifthis trend holds, the axis of higher snow totals (which currentlyextend from the far northern Detroit suburbs/Flint up to the thumb)may need to be adjusted farther south into Detroit and Port Huron.This in turn would result in much lower totals across the Tri Cities. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 NOAA still has 6” in my forecast. Not one model now gives me an inch. Feel bad for people who read that but don’t know the change from earlier today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 Tribulations Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 NOAA still has 6” in my forecast. Not one model now gives me an inch. Feel bad for people who read that but don’t know the change from earlier today.Makes no sense here either. Yesterday, they all went all in on the GFS and issued WSW’s way out in Iowa and way north into WI. Fine - at least they said why regardless of it being a poor decision. Now, they decide to maintain WSW for almost all of LOT despite there being hardly model guidance to support it. So, I guess we’re back to just throwing darts. Also, what’s the ETA until some Chicago peeps start posting about how LES/LEhS will bring the goods... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 I haven't seen this in Kansas for awhile...DDC has issued a snow squall warning for parts of their CWA...here is some of the text...* Until 700 PM CST.* At 601 PM CST, dangerous snow squalls extended from near Dightonto near Garden City to near Ulysses to Liberal, expandingsoutheast at 30 mph.HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Windgusts as high as 50 mph.SOURCE...Radar indicated.IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.Be aware of very rapidly changing visibility in heavy snowshowers. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 I haven't seen this in Kansas for awhile...DDC has issued a snow squall warning for parts of their CWA...here is some of the text... * Until 700 PM CST. * At 601 PM CST, dangerous snow squalls extended from near Dighton to near Garden City to near Ulysses to Liberal, expanding southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts as high as 50 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. Be aware of very rapidly changing visibility in heavy snow showers.Wow, is that all snow in west KS with all that lightning?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Wow, is that all snow in west KS with all that lightning?!?Must be...radar looks similar to an outflow boundary you'd see on a line of thunderstorms...pretty interesting! Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 You know the system sucks when the thread has been silent for 2 hours. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 You know the system sucks when the thread has been silent for 2 hours. Lol#stormcancel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 You know the system sucks when the thread has been silent for 2 hours. Lol how much are you inline to get? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 wow--- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Been coaching 7th grade basketball this afternoon and evening so have been out of the loop. NWS Hastings has a snow band setting up over my area of Central Nebraska and not moving much. They mention a general 2-4” but possibly a much heavier band that could drop warning criteria snows of 6-8” with winds gusting to 40 mph. All I heard after our games was “what are the chances for a snow day tomorrow”. This would be quite a storm it it materializes. Not assuming anything, but hoping for the best. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Looking at latest models. Guessing a couple inches. But nws still shows us in 6" area. Seeing something im not? My local forecast says significant accumulation on Wednesday during the day. Wich makes no sense either. So im thinking maybe a couple inches. I always hope for more, but im also realistic. A day or so ago i was in the 12"-15" area. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Looking at latest models. Guessing a couple inches. But nws still shows us in 6" area. Seeing something im not? My local forecast says significant accumulation on Wednesday during the day. Wich makes no sense either. So im thinking maybe a couple inches. I always hope for more, but im also realistic. A day or so ago i was in the 12"-15" area. LolNWS usually updates their Grids around 3:00pm and 3:00am local time once new data can be analyzed every 12 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 NWS usually updates their Grids around 3:00pm and 3:00am local time once new data can be analyzed every 12 hours.True. But i follow them on twitter also and they usually not to bad about updating on there as things change. But they really haven't changed what they have been saying all day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Our current winter storm watch still says in excess of 6". Which im sure will change by morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Man this took a turn lol. NEXT! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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