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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


Madtown

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Unfortunately "next" is about 8-9 months from now. The biggest snow of the winter in Lincoln was 1.8". Just terrible. 

Yeah its all pretty much over. Best thing to do is look forward is severe weather season.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Unfortunately "next" is about 8-9 months from now. The biggest snow of the winter in Lincoln was 1.8". Just terrible.

Yup. Going to end up with 11.4” for the year. Quite the turn of events from last year. I wasn’t expecting another year like that, but an at average year I would have been ok with.

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Not only a solid snow event, but one falling primarily during the day? I'm down.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
332 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...Heavy Snow Possible For Northwest Ohio...

.A strong developing low pressure system will bring heavy snow
potential and windy conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
heaviest swath of snowfall will develop over northwest Ohio.

OHZ003-006-252045-
/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.200226T1200Z-200227T0900Z/
Lucas-Wood-
Including the cities of Toledo and Bowling Green
332 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches
possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph which could blowing
and drifting snow along with low visibilities at times.

* WHERE...Lucas and Wood counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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CLE suddenly cares about this, as evidenced by the watch

 

 

 

A series of weak upper level shortwave troughs will move through
the area today and tonight. An upper level ridge will push into
the western United States tonight and will result in
amplification of a deep digging upper level trough over the
central portions of the lower 48 states. This will result in a
surface low pressure over Missouri that will move northeast
toward the Ohio Valley. This track is a bit further south than
previous runs. As the upper level trough becomes negatively
tilted by the end of the period, the surface low will begin to
rapidly intensify. This will force Arctic air to move south into
the forecast area in the wake of the surface low later tonight
into tomorrow. Copious amounts of moisture and ideal upper level
support in the form of a potent positive vorticity maximum will
cause a period of snow across the northwest portion of the
forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snow accumulations
of 4 to 6 inches are possible in Lucas and Wood counties with
additional accumulations Wednesday night. Some lake enhancement
may play a role in additional accumulations so this will have to
be monitored over time. Therefore, a winter storm watch has been
issued for Lucas and Wood counties Wednesday through Wednesday
night. Rain will be the primary weather phenomenon across the
eastern half of the area during this forecast period in the warm
sector.

Warm air advection will take place ahead of the low
pressure system and will bring one more day of relatively mild
temperatures in the east. Highs in the eastern half of the area
will be in the middle to upper 40s and upper 30s in the west.
Overnight, lows will drop into the lower to middle 30s. For
Wednesday, the Tuesday night lows will likely be the highs for
the day in the west. As the surge of warmer air continues in the
east, temperatures should climb into the lower 40s before
retreating Wednesday night as the strong cold air arrives on the
west side of the low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models have joined in medium to high agreement for the mid week
storm system to impact the area. We will see a deepening low
pressure system near western Pennyslvania by 00z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). We will be transitioning rain to snow from west to east
over the far eastern zones at this time with all snow for everyone
by mid to late evening. The heaviest snow will be primarily
affecting northwest Ohio moving into north central Ohio during this
timeframe. We will likely see several inches quickly accumulate and
the wind will also be increasing 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph. The center of the storm will be pulling away from the area
later in the night and will be located in up state New York by early
Thursday morning. Synoptic snow will gradually taper off from west
to east during the night. We can expect a general 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall from the storm system southeast of I-71. West of I-71, we
are expecting 2 to 4 inches with the heaviest amounts closer to
northwest Ohio where 5 to 8 inches will be possible. There is where
the Winter Storm Watch is currently in effect but keep in mind there
will be some minor changes to amounts and any alerts over the next
24 hours.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Bust here.  Not 1 flake.  The snow band set up 15 miles south, west, and northwest and sat for the night.  It continued to move west southwest.  NWS Hastings started trimming away counties on the east side of WWA and I'm sure more are coming.  Been a rough winter for forecasters around here, and I know other places in the forum.  Many schools have late starts or are closed just to my west.  There have been unconfirmed reports of 6-10" in this band.  This is the band that was predicted to sit over my county.  Well, what can you do.  Weather will do what it's gonna do.  Frustrated.  This is why I wasn't banking on this last night.

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Well unfortunately another nuisance snow on the way...if even that. This probably would have been our best chance of seeing something significant before we head into March but the models have turned against our chances. All we can hope for is a decent Spring around these parts but we have not seen that in a very long time. March will probably end up chilly and rainy. Good luck to you farther east and hope you guys can cash in.

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There’s a narrow warning/ band of snow in central Kansas too. Says 5-10” of snow in that band. Crazy stuff

 

Bust here. Not 1 flake. The snow band set up 15 miles south, west, and northwest and sat for the night. It continued to move west southwest. NWS Hastings started trimming away counties on the east side of WWA and I'm sure more are coming. Been a rough winter for forecasters around here, and I know other places in the forum. Many schools have late starts or are closed just to my west. There have been unconfirmed reports of 6-10" in this band. This is the band that was predicted to sit over my county. Well, what can you do. Weather will do what it's gonna do. Frustrated. This is why I wasn't banking on this last night.

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Schools closing like crazy just to my west as more heavy snow bands set up.  Students at our high school, along with teachers, have been a little negative this morning as we are on time as usual.  I told them they'd be 1 day smarter than the students getting the day off today.  They didn't seem to like my humor.   :)

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12z Canadian..."Jaster Jackpot"

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Haha, was such a busy Monday I couldn't follow after my early morning post(s). 

 

First bolded portion is why GRR hates synoptic systems and their challenges. While not a science focused AFD, they at least did a decent write-up overnight wrt models/trends/scenario

 

 

 

-- Main system snow begins tonight but expected more on Wed --

 

So, there are few instances in regard to impactful winter weather that

are more challenging than trying to get a handle on potential

phasing streams/shortwaves. This event is not different in that

regard. The persistent trend in the models has been to constantly

shift the heavier snow south run by run as the shortwave in

question over the plains trends further south and more progressive

as it lifts through our region. The surface low in the models has

trended south as well. The GFS for instance at this time last

night at a low at 12z Wed over Benton Harbor MI. The low now at

the same time is forecast to be over far southeast Indiana. Its

tough to nail down headlines with that much of a slide ongoing in

all the models. So, the bottom line up front is that we have

decided in coordination with all neighboring offices and our

national center WPC to keep the watch, but trim it back

considerably into our southern CWA.

 

At this point we feel the trend is towards a Winter Weather

Advisory but that decision will likely be made by the day shift

today. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches still look likely in the

main swath with the system in our area, its just trended in the

far south and southeast CWA towards AZO, BTL, JXN and LAN. Metro

Grand Rapids looks to be on the northern fringes of the heavier

precipitation, so amounts will likely be in the trace to two inch

range in that area.

 

The snow will come in waves from this afternoon through the day on

Wednesday, with the heaviest occurring on Wednesday when the upper

wave finally begins to close off to our east. There in lies the

issue with this system is it takes longer now in the models for

the system to close off a bit in the mid levels, almost to the

point where it is by us. The waves phase finally into Wednesday

night and the low deepens but this all occurs off to our east as

the system is lifting into Canada. We will miss out on that

deformation zone precipitation for the most part.

 

Given how much this system has changed in the models from day to

day and run to run we feel comfortable keeping the watch at this

point as we are not sure the changes/trends have stopped.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Totals are less/East on the 12Z suite except for 3km NAM, which rocks SE MI.

 

Hate when my office is right, lol. Their early call y'day of "this looks like a 3-6" event" (while maps were showing 10+) seems likely to be reality. Weak/SE trend of the season for most of our Sub continues. Congrats on being one of the few Peeps still in the game. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While falling thru the cracks of WPC's d3-7 hazards map, I did actually get on NOAA's day-2 for Hvy Snow fwiw..

 

20200225 noaa d2 Surf Map.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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.UPDATE...

Issued at 914 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

 

Forecast grids were updated to reflect less snow for the area near

and north of Grand Rapids. Overall the incoming guidance is

supportive of the highest accumulations along and south of a

Kalamazoo to Lansing line. Graphics were updated to reflect this

trend as well.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For the second day in a row there is a snow squall warning in Kansas, this time in the Goodland vicinity. There is also a special weather statement for a strong snow squall northeast of the Wichita area.  I can't recall this ever happening before unless it was back in the 1960s or 1970s (when I was a kid).  This could have been a monster storm if all the pieces had come together correctly. There is heavy snow falling to my southwest - normally a good sign of things to come - but I likely won't see a flake.  Crazy... :wacko:

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Pretty LOL worthy the way my office is so inconsistent with the "Watch" headline.  With just 3-6" amounts in the actual wording, it's baffling how they considered this worthy, while Jan 17-18 delivered a solid 6" of concrete (with models showing 8-10+) in short order, yet that was automatically a WWA  :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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^^ The phase-less "winter of snore"   :rolleyes:  :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's really going to take off once the energy phases.  It's a shame that rarely happens around here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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