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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


Madtown

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Detroit area downgraded to Winter Weather Advisory for 3-6" instead of the earlier 6-8" forecast

Interestingly though the AFD reads 6-8" attainable in eastern counties and our zone forecast explicitly totals 5-8". Regardless, let's hope for some enhanced banding (3km NAM style) to get us to those higher totals.

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Interestingly though the AFD reads 6-8" attainable in eastern counties and our zone forecast explicitly totals 5-8". Regardless, let's hope for some enhanced banding (3km NAM style) to get us to those higher totals.

 

 

Probably coordinated with CLE, as Lucas and Wood counties are also in a 3-6" advisory.

 

Nah, we all know GRR drives the WWA train  ;)  (meanwhile mentioning NW bumps to be watched, lol)

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)

Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

 

- Snow moves in this evening with some impacts forecasted through

Wednesday

 

Overall the latest model runs are generally been in decent

agreement showing the most snow to fall roughly along and south of

of a line from South Haven to near St Johns. This area roughly

covers the Winter Storm Watch region...but it does clip parts of

Allegan and Ionia counties. Since forecasted amounts are likely

to end up below warning criteria...we will change the Watch to a

Winter Weather Advisory with generally 3 to 6 inches of snow

forecasted. We also included Allegan and Ionia Counties as parts

of those counties could see impacts...especially with US-131 and

I-96 close to the steadier snow. We should maintain close

monitoring of the storm as the High Res Euro shifted the axis of

heavier snow northwest with its most recent run. This could put

southeast parts of Kent County in some steadier snow for a period.

The snow starts up by this evening. Road temperatures are likely

to be initially warm...but they will fall of through the evening.

Then the snow persists into Wednesday. While daytime temperatures

may make a run at freezing...they should fall off mid to late

afternoon as the arctic airmass starts spilling in.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Changeover is happening here as we speak, about 3 hours ahead of schedule. 34.8*F.

Woohoo! I think the evolution of the initial band into the overnight will play heavily into whether we can over-achieve for the event. Ratios tomorrow being the other big factor. Euro Kucheras have been very friendly in these parts.

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Woohoo! I think the evolution of the initial band into the overnight will play heavily into whether we can over-achieve for the event. Ratios tomorrow being the other big factor. Euro Kucheras have been very friendly in these parts.

Dry air is gonna take over for a bit tonight. How long it takes over for will be the biggest factor. If it hits during what's supposed to be the heaviest part of the storm, I can't possibly expect more than a couple inches from this.

 

There is a dusting on the ground. 34.9*F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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@Tom did you get any snow?

About an inch on grass and colder surfaces...pavement is to warm and wet. The warmth from the past couple days really did a number on the frozen ground. I just can’t help but think what this storm “could” have been when they were flashing those big totals. The wind is howling and blowing the snow sideways. Yet again, we have a storm with marginal temps and warm ground.

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I spoke before I looked at radar...

 

Looks good here attm. Grid-cast has 5" total. Was about 1/4" on my deck when I looked earlier. Should go poke my head outside for a current Obs. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Riding the NW edge of the solid 0.5" qpf shield, and thus GRR's 4-6" map cutting thru here looks pretty accurate. I expect to lose a lot on warm ground, but elevated surf's and remnant snow cover should stack ok. 

 

20200226 0z nam3km_asnow_ferrier_neus_h31.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And to think the initial winter storm watch was issued for places as far north as Sheboygan and as far west as C IA. Pretty epic fail.

 

Good luck Jaster! Hope you can score with this.

 

Appreciate that SPS..epic model failures are a theme this winter, aren't they? Crazy! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks good here attm. Grid-cast has 5" total. Was about 1/4" on my deck when I looked earlier. Should go poke my head outside for a current Obs. 

 

Estimating 1" on my deck since it started, with about 1/2" on the concrete walks/street. Covering the pavement better than expected as my part of town seems to be quite the heat sink of warmth. As Tom said, it's been mild now for days. Kinda surprised much snow cover survived at all tbh

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I spoke before I looked at radar...

 

NAM likes SEMI big time. You'll be fine over there, just like all winter.. ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This has some potential to give accumulations greater than 6" here in SEMI.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This has some potential to give accumulations greater than 6" here in SEMI.

 

Good Luck buddy! 

 

RGEM agrees..5 is my number  :lol:

 

20200226 0z RGEM.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good Luck buddy! 

 

RGEM agrees..5 is my number  :lol:

 

attachicon.gif20200226 0z RGEM.png

Thanks amigo...hope you score good w this storm.

 

Cant believe that w this type of mild Winter, Detroit manages to get its 3rd snowstorm of 6"+. Wow! I think so far, the city is at 31.6" or so (give or take).

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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While falling thru the cracks of WPC's d3-7 hazards map, I did actually get on NOAA's day-2 for Hvy Snow fwiw..

 

attachicon.gif20200225 noaa d2 Surf Map.gif

Great map! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just measured 2.1" on my deck...surprised to even have that much.  Took a look at the local radar loop and it hasn't stopped snowing since about 4:30pm yesterday which in my book is about as good of a win from this system as one could expect.

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I've been lucky to have the band of snow continue to re-develop over Cook county.  Temps have dropped a tad below freezing (29F) and the snow is a little fluffier.  The dendrites are nice and big about moderate size which has been the common theme with this system thus far.

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Up to 2.5" now...the top layer has the look of puff balls...everything is covered with a nice covering of snow...it's back to Winter in this yo-yo season.  Should be a nice scenery when daylight emerges and with cold temps hanging around for more than 48 hours, the snow should stick around for the longest period post-storm for any system this year (sadly).

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