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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)

Madtown

By Madtown
in East of the Rockies

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james1976
james1976

Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?

Tom
Tom

Up to 2.5" now...the top layer has the look of puff balls...everything is covered with a nice covering of snow...it's back to Winter in this yo-yo season.  Should be a nice scenery when daylight emerg

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs.  Models are really struggling with this.    

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

If you watch the GFS 500 mb trend over the last ~8 runs, the big problem is the second wave.  It has steadily become weaker and slower.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
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There are some models trying to put down 3-6" or a little more right through the heart of Central Nebraska.  If this occurs, the wind is also supposed to be blowing up to 40 MPH.  This could lead to blowing and drifting and poor travel conditions.  It is a very narrow potential band so NWS and other forecasters are still waiting.  Not getting excited, but it would be nice to see some snow with windy conditions.  With this winter, nothing is ever for certain.

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FV-Mike Community Regular

FV-Mike

Posted
Posted

Skilling's FB update moments ago

 

A little geek stuff now---so fair warning, tune this out if this sort of material is not your "cup of tea". 45 model forecasts have been analyzed for this prediction and model generated snowfalls among them centered on the city ranging from as little as 3.4" to as much as 16.6". Either of these two totals sits at the most extreme ends of extrem the forecast spectrum. These have a lower likelihood of actually occurrin--but should either of them actually occur, totals like these are likely to impact a limited portion of the Chicago area.
If one averages all 45 snow forecasts centered on Chicago, the total which emerges is roughly 9". Taking this figure and the accumulation estimates which sit in the middle of the pack as well as other variables we weather types look over, a predicted snowfall range of 6 to 12" range makes the most sense at this time.
I'm posting a set of varied model snowfall forecasts for you to check out yourself. It is always fascinating to watch how complex situations like the one coming together is handled by these incredibly sophisticated models.
What's been interesting--and I noted it in my posts Sunday--is how the the axis of heaviest snowfall as predicted by has been sinking southward. It started yesterday in southern Wisconsin-----it's now down across the Chicago area. Interestingly, the vaunted European Center model and its ensembles place the axis of heaviest snowfall just south of Chicago--still producing a respectable 7-8" snowfall city with as 4.5" near the Cook County/Lake county, IL line and totals as high as 11" on the Indiana line and into Lake CiLke County, IN. It's also interesting that our 4km RPM model is producing a snowfall in the 6" range through the heart of the city building to 10" toward the Illinois/Indiana line at Lake County, N. The suggesting of both these models as well as the UK Met center's models is that accumulation tallies will ease heading north into northern counties an toward the Wisconsin line and just north where 3-4" would be most common.
I'll keep your posted on updates as this winter storm and new data important to it and its impact come in..

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Wxmidatlantic Newbie

Wxmidatlantic

Posted
Posted

Skilling's FB update moments ago

 

A little geek stuff now---so fair warning, tune this out if this sort of material is not your "cup of tea". 45 model forecasts have been analyzed for this prediction and model generated snowfalls among them centered on the city ranging from as little as 3.4" to as much as 16.6". Either of these two totals sits at the most extreme ends of extrem the forecast spectrum. These have a lower likelihood of actually occurrin--but should either of them actually occur, totals like these are likely to impact a limited portion of the Chicago area.

If one averages all 45 snow forecasts centered on Chicago, the total which emerges is roughly 9". Taking this figure and the accumulation estimates which sit in the middle of the pack as well as other variables we weather types look over, a predicted snowfall range of 6 to 12" range makes the most sense at this time.

I'm posting a set of varied model snowfall forecasts for you to check out yourself. It is always fascinating to watch how complex situations like the one coming together is handled by these incredibly sophisticated models.

What's been interesting--and I noted it in my posts Sunday--is how the the axis of heaviest snowfall as predicted by has been sinking southward. It started yesterday in southern Wisconsin-----it's now down across the Chicago area. Interestingly, the vaunted European Center model and its ensembles place the axis of heaviest snowfall just south of Chicago--still producing a respectable 7-8" snowfall city with as 4.5" near the Cook County/Lake county, IL line and totals as high as 11" on the Indiana line and into Lake CiLke County, IN. It's also interesting that our 4km RPM model is producing a snowfall in the 6" range through the heart of the city building to 10" toward the Illinois/Indiana line at Lake County, N. The suggesting of both these models as well as the UK Met center's models is that accumulation tallies will ease heading north into northern counties an toward the Wisconsin line and just north where 3-4" would be most common.

I'll keep your posted on updates as this winter storm and new data important to it and its impact come in..

 

A storm is just brewing man. Don't over think it..

 

https://youtu.be/wPndmL6HfIs

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

12z Euro - South, but still pretty solid for southeastern Michigan.  Some of us had the rug pulled out from under us, but it has benefited others.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Euro 48 hours ago vs. now

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

 

UKIE won this battle in terms of placement of the snow shield but amounts were lower than what they will prob end up being.  Boy, the forecasters must be so frustrated with the modeling this season.  If one would have read the LOT discussion this morning, you'd be banking on a major snowstorm for N IL.  Crazy how many shifts we have seen inside 24-48 hours.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted

Still a little time for this to move back NW but not counting on it. Whatever was ingested into the models today was a blow to many of us and can only hope it was in-correct. Will be looking at the 18z and 0z runs for any type of improvement...fingers crossed.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

Favorable wave timing and phasing has not been good this winter.  Everything ends up with more positive tilt, less phasing, etc.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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