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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


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Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?

Up to 2.5" now...the top layer has the look of puff balls...everything is covered with a nice covering of snow...it's back to Winter in this yo-yo season.  Should be a nice scenery when daylight emerg

The bet is to usually go with the model that shows the least snow and go with that.

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The 12z ICON has also shifted the system nw.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_39.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GFS

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Canadian... another huge change from previous runs.  Models are really struggling with this.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z UK shifted in the opposite direction.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub???  Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system.  Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub.

 

00z Euro...

 

 

Fool me once....

 

Was going to say..remember when the Ukie had a 972 mb "bomb" over OH with that system earlier in the month? The one that ended up just a series of weak waves instead of a bundled batch of energy. I'll have to remain highly skeptical until it's imminent. And in this winter of last-minute mega busts, that'll be a real-time situation IF it comes to fruition at all?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Euro is getting better for northern folks as the trailing energy is closing off and remaining farther north because the kicker energy has backed off again.  It's just a shame the lead system sweeps away all the deep moisture.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Of course, the way this has been going, tonight's Euro could show nothing again.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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"As of todays runs" looking like we could exceed the Halloween storm and some areas by quite a bit. Not getting hopes up because we know what the models showed us just 24htrs ago but most of the major models are showing a fairly robust storm and not a quick hitter either. That blocking is really going to help slow this storm down which is a plus.

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12z Euro...

 

Should at least keep the offices talking.. ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"As of todays runs" looking like we could exceed the Halloween storm and some areas by quite a bit. Not getting hopes up because we know what the models showed us just 24htrs ago but most of the major models are showing a fairly robust storm and not a quick hitter either. That blocking is really going to help slow this storm down which is a plus.

Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region.  Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap.

1.png

2.png

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There are still quite a few duds for Iowa in the Euro ensemble.  This thing could go either way.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Should at least keep the offices talking.. ;)

 

Overnight disco b4 they ingest the latest guidance..

 

-- Chances for rain/snow next week in complex evolution --

 

The pattern early to mid next week is what I would describe as a

complex evolution for sure. The initial shortwave to affect our

area is currently off the Southern California coast. It moves east

and induces surface cyclogenesis east of the Rockies on Sunday.

The low moves our direction and eventually weakens Monday night

into Tuesday as it moves into confluent upper flow. The ECMWF is

favored as it has pretty consistently shown the low to move up the

Ohio Valley. The GFS has been further north and is now trending

south towards the ECMWF track.

 

A second upper shortwave enters the picture on Monday from the

Northern Plains with this resulting in a deepening trough over the

plains and Great Lakes.

 

As northern stream energy begins to interact with this second

upper shortwave mid week a full latitude trough develops over the

eastern half of the country. A rapidly deepening low moves up the

Appalachians and into Quebec.

 

In terms of what to expect in terms of sensible weather we are

looking at precipitation likely holding off until into Monday.

Rain will trend towards rain and snow into Monday night with snow

being the dominant precipitation type into Tuesday and Wednesday.

We could be looking at some accumulating snow during the Tuesday

night and Wednesday time frame as the low deepens off to our east.

The snow does not look all that heavy, but several inches appear

possible with the current ECWMF across Southern Lower Michigan.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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We've seen this so many times this winter (even from the formerly reliable Euro) where it shows significant snow within 4-5 days to go away the next day.  

I would agree if it was only the Euro but all models except one are showing this.

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Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region.  Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap.

 

Lengthy? I honestly doubt it. Calendar date + AO should recover to at least +4. EPO looks positive as well

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Yup, the pattern may finally be setting up to produce a lengthy period of wintry weather around these parts. The 12z EPS is looking might good today...one of the best slow pivoting systems of the season for our region.  Good thing about this system is it reaches maximum intensity near the GL's with plenty of cold air to tap.

You have been saying this since October

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24-36 hrs of snowfall is consider a lengthy period of wintry wx in my book from one storm system. Not sure why you think otherwise.

He's either a borderline troll or a generally miserable person, check out his post history.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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^^^ #15 please. I wouldn't ask the snow gods for any other favors for at least three seasons!

Now, wouldn't that be something......but, too far away still. Dont get too excited. Its good that the models see a big storm next week though.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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anybody got the 18Z Euro? It's not loading on AccuWX.

 

Terry Swails posted this 18z Euro image to his blog.  I forget what the significance of the ensemble C (control?) member is.

 

Euro_ENS_Control.jpg

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Still not buying into those heavy amounts with the 18Z ensemble runs. Seems 18Z was the first ens run to show them. If 00Z continues it's getting interesting as DMX has pretty much written it off and only expects widespread light snows with the CAA midweek.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Teleconnections may not be negative- but they are forecasted to fall off which is not bad. One thing I have observed over the years is the NAO (want it going down or negative for storms) is a bigger player on the field later in the winter / early Spring.  Epo going down is a good sign also.4indices.pngnao.sprd2.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z ICON is shifting north.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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