Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 00z ICON... big north shift.... instead of the trailing energy diving down to the south, it now turns more eastward like other models are showing now. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Nam looks pretty far north also Gfs looks like it’s going to be much different than the Icon Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Nam looks pretty far north also Yeah, it is. The snow band is just beginning to get enhanced by the trailing energy at the end of the run. It's too bad the deep moisture has been pushed to the east coast at this point. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Boy, the GFS is way north with the energy, a big north jump from the 12z and 18z runs. This run should hit Minnesota. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 MN gets blasted 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Ha ha this is funny stuff 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The GFS is north, but the snow band is rather disorganized and generally weak. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater 1325 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Man Minnesota really does get blasted on the 00z GFS. Gonna take a few days for everyone to dig out if it comes true. If anything, this really does outline the high end, big dog potential on this thing if all the piece fall into place just right. 1 Quote 2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 51.6" (Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”) (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7") Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Looks like someone will get blasted by 2 maybe 3 inches! Better prepare if you live in MN IA SD IL Quote Link to post Share on other sites
stratosjeff 27 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 You seem like a miserable prick Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Canadian model has a dream snowstorm for KC!...plus many more people. However, had the CMC been right all winter, KC would be right around 105 inches of snow by now. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 CMC crushes iowa and northern IL Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 CMC pretty steady with 12Z run Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Iowawx 563 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's just amazing how hard it's been for a strong, organized winter storm to affect Iowa this winter. All of our snowfalls have come from weak, disorganized storms. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 00z Canadian 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3517 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Ukie no good for Iowa Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's really shows the variables involved when all four major (EURO 12Z- GFS, CMC and UKMET) all have basically much different solutions at 3-5 day range though the GFS and CMC are somewhat close with placement of precip just varies on type and amoumt. I have no clue what so ever what the Euro is about to show but I had to guess ; similar to it's 12Z run but further N and W and not based on mby but based on the warmth of the weekend and time of year. It's getting close to Dakota special season. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Ukie no good for Iowa It's better than 12z, but it still dives the trailing energy south and east around Iowa. I'm sure this will continue to evolve this weekend. Even if every model showed Cedar Rapids getting a foot of snow, I wouldn't get excited this far in advance. 00z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Euro coming in good for eastern IA/Wi/N IL 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 I love the way the trailing upper energy grabs the lead energy and pulls the surface low back. It's kinda neat. The UK is not really doing that. This scenario is about as good as it's going to get for Cedar Rapids. I still wouldn't put any money on it. 4 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Gfs ensembles are much farther north and wetter than the OP run Several big wound up storms yet Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mi_Matthew 233 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Trying not to get excited, but at the same time I have to believe that this will be one of the last genuine (first and only?) opportunities for a phase for the lower lakes. I am not greedy and I hope for the best "spread the wealth" scenario. IMO, this has a lot going for it, slowing down seemingly every run and some consistency from (mostly) the foreign models. Yes, there is waffling between models and runs but, averaging those out and factoring the seasonal SE-bias, I am ready to be buried and hope as many as possible will be buried with me! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Craig-OmahaWX 381 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Well other then the ICON and GFS eastern Nebraska seems like the ultimate screw zone with snow pivoting in all directions around us lol. Payback for a great winter last season lol. 3 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to post Share on other sites
Craig-OmahaWX 381 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 There is absolutely no agreement in the GFS ensembles. It's all over the place. Definitely won't know for a couple more days what this wacky system will do. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Euro Kucherahttp://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-132-C-kucheratot.png 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Another look-http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued_rapid/00Z/ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-132-C-kucheratot_2020022200_whitecounty.png 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 06NAM starting too amp up. Still snowing across nearly all of IA at hr 84. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 00z Euro...another look and one that would make many folks in IA/IL/WI/MI very happy...this system has a lot going for it to become a big dog....ample moisture, slow pivot, , blocking, phasing and enough cold air to tap. The energy from the lead wave will be coming onshore today in So Cal and lambaste parts of the desert SW. Parts of the "Valley of the Sun" in AZ are under Flood Watch's today. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Gfs much farther west and stronger with the low than 0z Nails WI good. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Holy smokes are the 00z EPS juiced! The trends are getting juicier and a showing more of a widespread snow shield as we get closer in time. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday...By late Sunday/early Monday a southern stream upper level lowcurrently moving into central/southern California will begin toaffect the area. The forecast trend has been to slow the system downand push precipitation chances south, as can be discerned via thelast few GEFS runs as well as other synoptic guidance. Even so,there remains some variability in both onset time and QPF amountwithin the ensemble members, with the operational GFS runpersistently one of the slowest to onset and driest. Given theoverall slower/drier/southerly trend, have trimmed NBM POPs a bitMonday but not to the extent the operational GFS run would suggest.Soundings and surface temps suggest precipitation type Monday toprimarily be snow, but could see some wintry mix as the columnsaturates. Regardless, light snowfall accumulations around an inchor less expected across the southern tier or two of counties by thetime the system slides out early Tuesday. Overall expect little tono impacts to travel.Quickly on the heels of the southern stream system exiting will be anorthern stream 500mb upper low on track to begin its influenceTuesday, continuing at least low end precipitation chances throughWednesday. Most notably with this system will be the return ofcolder air as it digs through the mid/upper Plains, droppinghighs into the 20s/30s and lows into the single digits/teens toround out the week. Overall the system lacks persistent moistureand sharp forcing, yielding another round of light nuisancesnowfall. Do not anticipate overall impacts to be much more thanminor once again. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday... I was going to post about that, too. It's strange the DMX forecaster does not even acknowledge the possibility of any decent snow. You'd think they would at least say, "Some models are pushing a bigger event, but we are not buying this scenario." 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Iowa folks are going to like the NAM Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Iowa folks are going to like the NAM It's farther north, though. It gets the surface low way up to around Clinton, IA. The Northern 2/3 of Iowa gets the brunt this run, and even southern MN gets into it. One thing I see is the NAM is a fast outlier with regard to the start of the snow. Most models have snow expanding in Iowa Tuesday morning. The NAM has it Monday afternoon. That will get delayed in future runs. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 413 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 NAM does look good for IOWA, however, a lot of that falls during the day Tuesday with temps around 29-32, likely won’t max out accumulations during the day unless it is colder or snows really hard. KC had the same thing last week, a great snow storm, but a lot melted as it fell and none of it ever accumulated on the pavement. (That was our only storm of the month, the next one is all rain) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1086 Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 picked up 5in last Monday at 32/33 degrees 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1086 Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The ICON is still on board 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 GFS is similar to 6z run Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The GFS continues to strengthen compared to previous runs, but it is still going way north. Much of Iowa gets nothing. This would be a Wisconsin biggie, with some in southern MN as well. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 HR 72 the L is in central Indiana and by HR 90 it’s much stronger over western LM You don’t see the low get tugged back NW very often Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1086 Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 yikes....riding the southern edge on that one! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Wish the GFS would get its act together a bit sooner. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 GEM is solid for many in here Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3517 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Canadian yes please Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 The Canadian is inching north a tad, but is pretty consistent now. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3517 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 UK looks like last night. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 22, 2020 Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 So let me get this straight the GFS is on its own? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1086 Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.