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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


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00z ICON... big north shift.... instead of the trailing energy diving down to the south, it now turns more eastward like other models are showing now.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_33.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?

Up to 2.5" now...the top layer has the look of puff balls...everything is covered with a nice covering of snow...it's back to Winter in this yo-yo season.  Should be a nice scenery when daylight emerg

The bet is to usually go with the model that shows the least snow and go with that.

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Nam looks pretty far north also

 

Yeah, it is.  The snow band is just beginning to get enhanced by the trailing energy at the end of the run.  It's too bad the deep moisture has been pushed to the east coast at this point.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, the GFS is way north with the energy, a big north jump from the 12z and 18z runs.  This run should hit Minnesota.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is north, but the snow band is rather disorganized and generally weak.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Man Minnesota really does get blasted on the 00z GFS. Gonna take a few days for everyone to dig out if it comes true. If anything, this really does outline the high end, big dog potential on this thing if all the piece fall into place just right.

44694959-3944-40EC-839B-EF9EDCA43B31.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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00z Canadian

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's really shows the variables involved when all four major (EURO 12Z- GFS, CMC and UKMET) all have basically much different solutions at 3-5 day range though the GFS and CMC are somewhat close with placement of precip just varies on type and amoumt. I have no clue what so ever what the Euro is about to show but I had to guess ; similar to it's 12Z run but further N and W and not based on mby but based on the warmth of the weekend and time of year. It's getting close to Dakota special season.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ukie no good for Iowa

 

It's better than 12z, but it still dives the trailing energy south and east around Iowa.  I'm sure this will continue to evolve this weekend.  Even if every model showed Cedar Rapids getting a foot of snow, I wouldn't get excited this far in advance.

 

00z UK

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I love the way the trailing upper energy grabs the lead energy and pulls the surface low back.  It's kinda neat.  The UK is not really doing that.

 

This scenario is about as good as it's going to get for Cedar Rapids.  I still wouldn't put any money on it.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Trying not to get excited, but at the same time I have to believe that this will be one of the last genuine (first and only?) opportunities for a phase for the lower lakes. I am not greedy and I hope for the best "spread the wealth" scenario. IMO, this has a lot going for it, slowing down seemingly every run and some consistency from (mostly) the foreign models. Yes, there is waffling between models and runs but, averaging those out and factoring the seasonal SE-bias, I am ready to be buried and hope as many as possible will be buried with me!

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Well other then the ICON and GFS eastern Nebraska seems like the ultimate screw zone with snow pivoting in all directions around us lol. Payback for a great winter last season lol.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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There is absolutely no agreement in the GFS ensembles. It's all over the place. Definitely won't know for a couple more days what this wacky system will do.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Euro Kucherahttp://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-132-C-kucheratot.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Another look-http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued_rapid/00Z/ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-132-C-kucheratot_2020022200_whitecounty.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Euro...another look and one that would make many folks in IA/IL/WI/MI very happy...this system has a lot going for it to become a big dog....ample moisture, slow pivot, , blocking, phasing and enough cold air to tap.  The energy from the lead wave will be coming onshore today in So Cal and lambaste parts of the desert SW.  Parts of the "Valley of the Sun" in AZ are under Flood Watch's today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday...

By late Sunday/early Monday a southern stream upper level low
currently moving into central/southern California will begin to
affect the area. The forecast trend has been to slow the system down
and push precipitation chances south, as can be discerned via the
last few GEFS runs as well as other synoptic guidance. Even so,
there remains some variability in both onset time and QPF amount
within the ensemble members, with the operational GFS run
persistently one of the slowest to onset and driest. Given the
overall slower/drier/southerly trend, have trimmed NBM POPs a bit
Monday but not to the extent the operational GFS run would suggest.
Soundings and surface temps suggest precipitation type Monday to
primarily be snow, but could see some wintry mix as the column
saturates. Regardless, light snowfall accumulations around an inch
or less expected across the southern tier or two of counties by the
time the system slides out early Tuesday. Overall expect little to
no impacts to travel.

Quickly on the heels of the southern stream system exiting will be a
northern stream 500mb upper low on track to begin its influence
Tuesday, continuing at least low end precipitation chances through
Wednesday. Most notably with this system will be the return of
colder air as it digs through the mid/upper Plains, dropping
highs into the 20s/30s and lows into the single digits/teens to
round out the week. Overall the system lacks persistent moisture
and sharp forcing, yielding another round of light nuisance
snowfall. Do not anticipate overall impacts to be much more than
minor once again.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX says what storm? - Monday through Friday...

 

I was going to post about that, too.  It's strange the DMX forecaster does not even acknowledge the possibility of any decent snow.  You'd think they would at least say, "Some models are pushing a bigger event, but we are not buying this scenario."

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Iowa folks are going to like the NAM

 

It's farther north, though.  It gets the surface low way up to around Clinton, IA.  The Northern 2/3 of Iowa gets the brunt this run, and even southern MN gets into it.

 

One thing I see is the NAM is a fast outlier with regard to the start of the snow.  Most models have snow expanding in Iowa Tuesday morning.  The NAM has it Monday afternoon.  That will get delayed in future runs.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NAM does look good for IOWA, however, a lot of that falls during the day Tuesday with temps around 29-32, likely won’t max out accumulations during the day unless it is colder or snows really hard.

 

KC had the same thing last week, a great snow storm, but a lot melted as it fell and none of it ever accumulated on the pavement. (That was our only storm of the month, the next one is all rain)

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The ICON is still on board

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_29.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS continues to strengthen compared to previous runs, but it is still going way north.  Much of Iowa gets nothing.  This would be a Wisconsin biggie, with some in southern MN as well.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Canadian is inching north a tad, but is pretty consistent now.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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