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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


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UK looks like last night.

 

It's worse than last night.  The UK is shooting the first wave eastward too quickly, so there is little interaction between the waves.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?

Up to 2.5" now...the top layer has the look of puff balls...everything is covered with a nice covering of snow...it's back to Winter in this yo-yo season.  Should be a nice scenery when daylight emerg

The bet is to usually go with the model that shows the least snow and go with that.

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Rats, the Euro is coming north, lifts the heavy snow north of Cedar Rapids.  It still has a band of heavy snow lifting north through CR/IC, but the best totals should be north.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I guess it's better than I thought.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro (and some other models as well) are showing the initial pocket of intense snow developing over southeast Iowa and lifting north through eastern Iowa during the day.  The Euro drops 3-5 just from that.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Probably 14-18" over much of E IA from the euro factoring ratios for the 2nd half of the storm. Another thing of note is the very weak shear profiles over much of the snow band, assuming a decent amount of lift(looking at the euro, there should be) could get decent flake size to really help achieve higher ratios. Not much to dislike on the past several euro runs.

 

ecmwf_full_2020022212_072_42.0--91.75.pn

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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The shift north needs to stop ASAP though...

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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The shift north needs to stop ASAP though...

 

It would totally suck if the GFS was onto something with its far north track.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It would totally suck if the GFS was onto something with its far north track.

 

Well it seems like whenever 12+ is legitimately in the cards for our area it gets yanked away at the last minute in some way or another. And I really do think someone could see 12" out of this. All models are now showing that somewhere. 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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This is pretty good for an ensemble mean three days out.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-mw-total_snow_10to1-2783200.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is pretty good for an ensemble mean three days out.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-mw-total_snow_10to1-2783200.png

 

Probably winter storm watches by this time tomorrow if things hold. That is a really strong mean, especially given the amount of spread. Like I said, I think 10-12+ is more than achievable for someone.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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More sure than a snake on it's belly that DMX will favor the GFS and Ukie and say that the Euro and CMC are outliers along with NAM.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS ensemble is better for Iowa than the op.

 

GFS_ens.jpg

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NAM coming in way different

Track looks about the same, but so far it's colder and more moist.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The 18z ICON is a solid jump southeast.  Cedar Rapids is on the nw edge of the snow.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, the Des Moines NWS really doesn't think much of this system.  The overnight shift barely mentioned it.  Now the afternoon shift thinks the strong Euro is suspect and that there may be "up to a couple inches of snow" in central Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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C

 

Can you show map?

 

icon_asnow_ncus_41.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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More sure than a snake on it's belly that DMX will favor the GFS and Ukie and say that the Euro and CMC are outliers along with NAM.

Winner ^

"Models are still quite varied in their solutions with the

GFS further north and faster and the Euro pushing the low squarely

across Iowa and slower...not pulling it out before late Wednesday

morning. The Euro is far more bullish on QPF with this system which

is suspect at this point. "

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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18z GFS

 

Interestingly, the GFS has very little difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera totals.  The Euro is much higher with Kuchera.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18Z CMC- continues to hammer IA (esp E) -- it's all snow in IAhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/accum/PR_000-084_0000.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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