2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)

[Grizzcoat]

I think the NAM is going E and tad S. Hope I'am wrong....

[Money]

I think the NAM is going E and tad S. Hope I'am wrong....

Doesn’t look like it through 51

[Grizzcoat]

more S in IA that's for sure.

[Grizzcoat]

the L is more W and even N but the precip shield is further S and E-- NW IA gets nothing through 66 - but this never was a NW IA deal I guess.

[Money]

Low is way NW and stronger

[Bellona]

I didn't get sucked in until today, now I'll probabaly regret it after all.

[bud2380]

The NAM is going nuts in my backyard. Just gimme it one time. LOL. Tomorrow is my 40th birthday so this would be a great present

[Grizzcoat]

NAM will have some 20" amounts...

[Money]

The low literally sits in the same spot for 12+ hours in N IL

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Both NAM's show a SE trend in the snow field like all (most)guidance has recently- 3KM through 60hr

[Sciascia]

Uh...yowie wowie. And still snowing at the end of the run.

 

EDIT: This is 10:1 map. The Kuchera map a couple posts above mine likely more accurate. But still, what a beautiful map!

[james1976]

Why do I feel like this is gonna be another near miss for me? Still a couple days to go but I really have to rely on a NW trend.

[Hawkeye]

The upper low tracks farther south this run, so more of the heavy snow is aimed at southern Iowa.

 

Earlier I was a bit concerned about a too-far-north shift.  Now it's going the other way.

[Bellona]

Why do I feel like this is gonna be another near miss for me? Still a couple days to go but I really have to rely on a NW trend.

 

Yup, I feel you. I have seen everything go just north or south this entire season. My biggest snowfall has been 4 inches.

[james1976]

East Central IA is gonna do well

[james1976]

Yup, I feel you. I have seen everything go just north or south this entire season. My biggest snowfall has been 4 inches.

Yup. Riding the edge all the time gets old.

[Grizzcoat]

^^^ same here.

[Bellona]

[Money]

This is gonna go north

[Bellona]

[snowstorm83]

Yup. Riding the edge all the time gets old.

 

Never related to a statement so much. Though I haven't really had any edge to ride this winter 

[Hawkeye]

East Central IA is gonna do well

 

There is still plenty of time for this to change.  It could jump another 100 miles south or it could wrap up 6-12 hours later, taking much of eastern Iowa out of it.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z ICON was already too far southeast (had Cedar Rapids on nw edge) and it looks like the 00z may be even farther southeast.  I'm getting a bit concerned.

[Hawkeye]

Ugh, the ICON just went south and weak, took out all snow for Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Dubuque.  Unreal.

 

We have to remember that the UK has never had the system phasing and producing good snow for Iowa.

 

[bud2380]

Ugh, the ICON just went south and weak, took out all snow for Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Dubuque.  Unreal.

With all due respect to the Germans. The ICON is a terrible model. It’s consistently way off base. I put no stock in it.

[Hawkeye]

With all due respect to the Germans. The ICON is a terrible model. It’s consistently way off base. I put no stock in it.

 

It may not be a top model, but we don't want to see any model losing the storm as it gets closer.

[Grizzcoat]

^^^ agree. But no matter how off base- a trend is a trend and the clear trend with much guidance today is S and E.

[Grizzcoat]

This is gonna go north

Why so? I said yday NW because of warmth out ahead and time of year. But I'am losing confidence in that hedge.

[bud2380]

It seems that storms always trend south about 48 hours out only to tick back north the following 24. Either way most models have put eastern Iowa in a great spot so I’m not yet worried

[Money]

No big changes on the gfs

[bud2380]

Yeah pretty similar. Slower the phase it appears. Storm gets its act together later than the NAM and Euro for sure. Hopefully it’s wrong

[Money]

Parts of WI gets buried with 18+ this run

[Grizzcoat]

Gut says CMC and Euro will cave to GFS etc. Maybe not tonights' runs but sometime tomorrow. I just don't have a good feeling about how the Euro has been flipping around lately.It may still be the king- but it's not like "THE KING" in previous winters.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS

 

[GDR]

Gut says CMC and Euro will cave to GFS etc. Maybe not tonights' runs but sometime tomorrow. I just don't have a good feeling about how the Euro has been flipping around lately.It may still be the king- but it's not like "THE KING" in previous winters.

so you think the nam cmc and euro all cave to the great gfs?

[Grizzcoat]

^^ Yep. The GFS last half of winter has beaten the Euro from the storms I have followed. I know someone posted that CMC was better then the GFS lately , but that's likely over a much larger area than IA and surrounding states. The Euro has not been good lately.

[Money]

GEM should be south of its 12z run

[bud2380]

Canadian looks further north to me. And a little further East with the back edge of the heavier snow. But still very solid

[Grizzcoat]

for sure E on GEM in IA compared to 12Z