March 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Friday the 13th Winter Storm potential...http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2188-friday-the-13th-winter-storm/

[Tom]

Looks very wintry in this part of the country for awhile.  Thanks for the maps Tom.  I wonder if in the next day or two we see Winter Storm Watches hoisted?  Been a long time since we've seen one of those issued if it occurs.  Probably the post Christmas storm if I remember correctly.  

Might be a historic stretch for your neck of the woods...00z GEFS has a 12"+ mean near your area...and that is not from just one run, run after run it's been showing this along with the EPS snow mean that continues to suggest over 12" mean across most of NE.

 

 

[james1976]

If we end up with a cold crappy spring it wont help get rid of the virus

[snowstorm83]

Probably the thickest fog I've seen in my life this morning. Blizzard coming confirmed. 

[westMJim]

March update: The first 10 days of March 2020 have been warmer than average with much less snow fall. At Grand Rapids the mean is 38.3° that is good for +6.5° and just a trace of snow fall so far. At Muskegon the mean is 36.9 that is +5.4 with just a trace of snow fall. At Lansing the mean is 39.3 and that is a departure of +8.3 with just a trace of snow fall. Speaking of snow fall the seasonal total so far at Grand Rapids remains at 48.5” At Muskegon it is at 50.3” both much below the average. At Lansing the total remains at 42.7” over at Detroit it is at 36.6” At Flint it is 49.8” Saginaw it is only 32.8”

Here are the latest snow falls in northern Michigan

https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow

And at Marquette the total for the season is at 170” There is still a lot of snow on the ground in the UP with 34” still on the ground at Marquette and 22” at The Sault. And even Alpena still has 5” on the ground.

[gabel23]

Probably the thickest fog I've seen in my life this morning. Blizzard coming confirmed. 

It was pretty crazy; I only had 4 blocks to drive to get to school and visibility was literally a block. 

[MIKEKC]

Spring has sprung in KC, grass is quite green(if you take care of it properly) and growing in some areas. Trees are budding and weeds are flying!

[jaster220]

Started the day with light snow in the low 30s. Only managed 39F so far, about 9 deg's below my grid high temp. Can't remember the last time we stayed below 40F. As said, not looking forward to 35-45F broken record stretches. Especially after such a nice first 1/3 of March around here. 

[St Paul Storm]

First legit rain here this morning since December 21. Nothing terribly heavy but it’s actually nice to see liquid precip again. Flying out to San Diego this afternoon where they’re getting about 6 months worth the rain this weekend. Go figure.

[Tom]

First legit rain here this morning since December 21. Nothing terribly heavy but it’s actually nice to see liquid precip again. Flying out to San Diego this afternoon where they’re getting about 6 months worth the rain this weekend. Go figure.

It's been nuts over here yesterday!  Tropical downpours all day long...where I'm at the elevation is close to 1,600 ft and while I was driving up and down the hills, I literally was driving through the cloud deck!  Pretty awesome experience and the moisture was welcomed.  We are expecting another 1-2" in the valley and more up in the mountains.  The models have underdone the amount of rains in the valley, esp in my area where the hills/mountains provide extra "lift".  Now I know what it is like to live in the Sierra or places where mountains provide lift.

[Hawkeye]

Models are targeting the March ~20th period for a possible big midwest storm.

[james1976]

Models are targeting the March ~20th period for a possible big midwest storm.

Snow, rain or both? I haven't looked. Super busy this week. I have plans next weekend too so I'm sure there will be a storm lol

[Hawkeye]

Snow, rain or both? I haven't looked. Super busy this week. I have plans next weekend too so I'm sure there will be a storm lol

 

Rain for most, with some snow in the usual plains/far north areas that typically get snow from wound-up systems in spring.

[gimmesnow]

My hill did not make it to the weekend. Raffle, party, all that stuff canceled. What a bummer. Looks like it'll be a long spring, there's still a lot of ice on the lake for the end of my boarding season.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has lifted accumulating snow farther north into Iowa this run.  

 

[FarmerRick]

Whoa!!!      

 

[Hawkeye]

The pattern should remain active for the rest of the month.  It won't be warm, though.

 

12z Euro 10-day precip

 

[Hawkeye]

We are stuck in the 30s today.  

[Madtown]

yeah I thought it was mid 40's today...sitting at 36 now

[GDR]

I’m just ready for the 50s and 60s so we can kill off this coronavirus paranoia

[Hawkeye]

By Friday, our normal high temp will be 50º, so all the 40s we'll be seeing will be below normal.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like another storm set to come through on Thursday.  Central Nebraska will be right on the edge of potential blizzard conditions according to local mets. this morning.  We might have rain/thunderstorms then changing to snow by Thursday evening with strong NW Winds.  Good chance we won't be in school so I can track it. 

 

Principal just came over the loud speaker and will be sending out online surveys to students (9-12 grade) to see what they have for internet access.  My guess is we will find out today we are out for the next 2 weeks but preparing for 6-8 weeks and we would go online classes.  8 weeks from yesterday will be graduation.

[Madtown]

GDR...agree...but Fl seems to be not out of the woods and it's not cold there.

[Stacsh]

I’m just ready for the 50s and 60s so we can kill off this coronavirus paranoia

Fake news. 

[mlgamer]

It's late in the season, but I found this in an old science book in the attic. It explains a lot for me anyway...

 

"The State-Specific Non-Reciprocal Rule of Weather Model Progression. When comparing two model runs, the newer model run will always show less snowfall for a particular point in Kansas than the older model run. No exceptions to the rule."

[james1976]

Des Moines saying winter headlines possible for N IA Friday on backside of storm.

[Tom]

PHX was below normal in precip at the start of last week (-0.64"), then the rains came and now we are way above normal at mid July level averages.  Sky Harbor Airport ended up with 1.78" of rain from the multi-day rains last week.  It was an interesting experience to see waves of showers/storms day after day.  All the "snow birds" were like asking themselves "are we in Seattle??".  When the sun came back out last Sat and temps in the low 70's, the pool was packed with Snow Birds and a few younger college students on their Spring Break.

 

More moderate to heavy rain coming this way tomorrow into Thu as a strong and cold system tracks over the state of AZ which may drop another .50"-1.00" of rain in the valley along with heavy mountain snows!  It's really unbelievable how much snow the ski resort in Flagstaff, AZ has had this season and in consecutive seasons.  I think they ended up with close to 2 feet of fresh powder last week and expecting another 12-18" from this system.  Should be another banner Spring season for skiing up north in the high country.  Winter Storm Watch's hoisted for the high country as the impending storm targets the high country.

 

Haven't had the time to post much lately as I've been enjoying this recent stretch of very pleasant weather after a long, dreary and chilly last week around these parts.  Been doing a lot of hiking and relaxation poolside.  The Sun has provided much needed Vitamin D to boost my Immunity!

 

As we approach the Spring Solstice, mother nature is lining up a well-timed storm system to effect our Sub as Winter and Spring clash!

 

[Stormy]

Enjoy the sunshine today, guys. At least it's sunny here currently and should stay that way for much of the day before much dreary weather returns. The euro is more bullish on heavy rainfall for my area. Don't really like how the GFS looks here this week, but it shows around 3" QPF till the first of April. That will change a hundred times, but models have a wet signal the rest of March as the storm track is shifting further north as spring advances. Hopefully can get enough instability on Thursday for a t. storm, but that's iffy. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe in a good chunk of Ia. Probably will be low topped, fast moving convection if it develops, is my guess.

[westMJim]

The sun has just broke thru the clouds here and the current temperature here is 39. We are now more than half way thru March and the the calendar spring will start on Thursday. There has only been a trace of snow fall so far this month and for the season Grand Rapids is still at just 48.5" If that 48.5" holds for the rest of March and April that would be the least amount of snow fall for a season at Grand Rapids since 1982/83 when just 35.9" fell. The mean for the month is 37.8° and that is +5.0° 

[Stormy]

PHX was below normal in precip at the start of last week (-0.64"), then the rains came and now we are way above normal at mid July level averages. Sky Harbor Airport ended up with 1.78" of rain from the multi-day rains last week. It was an interesting experience to see waves of showers/storms day after day. All the "snow birds" were like asking themselves "are we in Seattle??". When the sun came back out last Sat and temps in the low 70's, the pool was packed with Snow Birds and a few younger college students on their Spring Break.

 

More moderate to heavy rain coming this way tomorrow into Thu as a strong and cold system tracks over the state of AZ which may drop another .50"-1.00" of rain in the valley along with heavy mountain snows! It's really unbelievable how much snow the ski resort in Flagstaff, AZ has had this season and in consecutive seasons. I think they ended up with close to 2 feet of fresh powder last week and expecting another 12-18" from this system. Should be another banner Spring season for skiing up north in the high country. Winter Storm Watch's hoisted for the high country as the impending storm targets the high country.

 

Haven't had the time to post much lately as I've been enjoying this recent stretch of very pleasant weather after a long, dreary and chilly last week around these parts. Been doing a lot of hiking and relaxation poolside. The Sun has provided much needed Vitamin D to boost my Immunity!

 

As we approach the Spring Solstice, mother nature is lining up a well-timed storm system to effect our Sub as Winter and Spring clash!

 

That’s a strong cf on that map. Highs are probably going to be only in the mid to upper 30°s in my area on Friday.

 

I have a brother that moves from Indiana to his second home in Phoenix every winter. He used to live in a gated community in Scottsdale, but recently moved to a different part of that city, but I’m not sure where. Maybe to the Fountain Hills area? I guess I should visit him sometime.

[Tom]

That’s a strong cf on that map. Highs are probably going to be only in the mid to upper 30°s in my area on Friday.

 

I have a brother that moves from Indiana to his second home in Phoenix every winter. He used to live in a gated community in Scottsdale, but recently moved to a different part of that city, but I’m not sure where. Maybe to the Fountain Hills area? I guess I should visit him sometime.

Scottsdale is a beautiful city, much more congested than Fountain Hills where I am residing at the moment.  I love it here.  The mountain views are gorgeous and hiking trails are literally right out my back door.  Its a quiet and peaceful place situated in what seems like it's own valley tucked away from the PHX valley.  The only problem is that it's a bit of a drive to all the shopping malls, venues, bars/restaurant scene of Scottsdale.  Nonetheless, if you ever take a trip out here let me know!

[Stormy]

Scottsdale is a beautiful city, much more congested than Fountain Hills where I am residing at the moment.  I love it here.  The mountain views are gorgeous and hiking trails are literally right out my back door.  Its a quiet and peaceful place situated in what seems like it's own valley tucked away from the PHX valley.  The only problem is that it's a bit of a drive to all the shopping malls, venues, bars/restaurant scene of Scottsdale.  Nonetheless, if you ever take a trip out here let me know!

Ok. But I don’t have any plans for this year.

 

I asked my other brother here and he thought it is Fountain Hills, so it might be close to where you live!

[jaster220]

Fake news. 

 

At least for now it is. In 2009-10 we were still reeling from the economic collapse so that was the "big news" focus. Even so, life was "business as usual" (unless you were suffering from the great recession) despite a much much greater threat from H1N1. Don't disagree with trying to slow it down ofc. Common sense would tell you that, but so much MSM hype over this it's just useless fear mongering imo and serves only to ruin a prosperous economic period. 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sigh.....

Go look at the death rate and hospitalization rate of the two. Not even on the same planet....

We've only been testing for the virus for what 6 weeks now and you want to compare a total count to the H1N1.

Congress's own doctor said 75-150 million will get infected. Many health agencies and doctor's have estimates of 500k+ dead from this.

I saved you the effort of having to do that in my post on the complaint thread.

 

At least for now it is. In 2009-10 we were still reeling from the economic collapse so that was the "big news" focus. Even so, life was "business as usual" (unless you were suffering from the great recession) despite a much much greater threat from H1N1. Don't disagree with trying to slow it down ofc. Common sense would tell you that, but so much MSM hype over this it's just useless fear mongering imo and serves only to ruin a prosperous economic period. 

 

Swine Flu deaths.PNG

[Hawkeye]

Models are increasingly trying to split my local area with both storms this week... the best rain missing just north and south.  Instead of 0.75+" from each system, it's possible we could get less than that combined.

[MIKEKC]

Canadian model has 4-6 inches of snow in KC Saturday night.

 

I’ll be waiting....

[Stormy]

Huh? Much of Ia. has now been upgraded to a slight risk for tomorrow.

 

I’m currently hearing rain on the windows.

[Money]

Very strong shear forecasted and doesn’t take much instability for a tornado with the shear that is expected

[Tom]

Lot's of snow heading for the high country in AZ...might take a day trip this weekend up to Forest Lakes (NE of Payson) where they are expecting about a Foot of snow...

 

[Stormy]

Very strong shear forecasted and doesn’t take much instability for a tornado with the shear that is expected

Will likely need some sunshine to verify.